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An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

jaapgrolleman.com

91–100 of 559 posts

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The shear size of some of these provinces make the logistical challenge of food delivery almost impossibile. This kind of argument sounds like a logical fallacy to me. Sure, if a single person or organization suddenly needs to supply a large area it's a logistical nightmare. For example if the USA would suddenly need to supply hundreds of millions of people in China. But that is not the case. In those areas the log…

The logistical system that grew with the area has been disrupted by the lockdown. The primary final link was probably people going to stores and restaurants to get food, which they currently aren't allowed to do. A logical fallacy isn't a "feeling", it's a short hand for identifying a poor use of logic, you should be able to directly explain the flaw you see in the other posters reasoning.

> "The shear size of some of these provinces make the logistical challenge of food delivery almost impossibile."

This is a weak assertion without proof. You can either agree with it, dismiss it or you can question the basis for it. Real logic is entirely useless here (for many reasons), but guessing the basis is logically flawed is perfectly reasonable for humans having a conversation.

Using pedantry to shut down differing opinions isn't useful.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#92

Hard to verify the source of the video but there is one going around reddit right now showing mass suicides from people jumping out of high rise windows. Claimed to be people in lockdown in Shanghai.

Considering that this whole thing started with fake videos from China of people dropping dead in the street, I'm treating any new videos from China with extreme scepticism.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The shear size of some of these provinces make the logistical challenge of food delivery almost impossibile. This kind of argument sounds like a logical fallacy to me. Sure, if a single person or organization suddenly needs to supply a large area it's a logistical nightmare. For example if the USA would suddenly need to supply hundreds of millions of people in China. But that is not the case. In those areas the log…

The logistical system that grew with the area has been disrupted by the lockdown. The primary final link was probably people going to stores and restaurants to get food, which they currently aren't allowed to do. A logical fallacy isn't a "feeling", it's a short hand for identifying a poor use of logic, you should be able to directly explain the flaw you see in the other posters reasoning.

The reason it’s a logical fallacy to assume size makes a real difference is the work scales with population, but the capacity to solve problems also scales with population. That’s a a formal fallacy in that the argument doesn’t follow from the premise.

In general economies of scale make things easier as you start dealing with ever larger groups.

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#94
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s take time to discuss this, as it’s easier to discuss when it happens to another country with an entirely different social system. I was surprised, last year, that techniques we were condescending about, and saying it only happens in China, were applied in Europe and USA. As if it was an emergent property of a human group facing a new disease.

Talks about how magic money doesn’t exist but then printing out checks for everyone and it materially helping loads of people was definitely an Overton window shifter as well. There are principles and a status quo, and it always stays the same… until it changes.

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Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#96

Hard to verify the source of the video but there is one going around reddit right now showing mass suicides from people jumping out of high rise windows. Claimed to be people in lockdown in Shanghai.

Ridiculous. Of course it's false. Edit: downvotes for pointing out obvious misinformation..

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#97
post #79
post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only because HK's elderly are not widely vaccinated, and also because Sinovac makes up about half of their vaccinations and this vaccine is not as good at preventing mortality. A very similar situation to Mainland China, actually. So the question still hasn't been answered. Why is Mainland China insisting on pursuing this inferior strategy? The hard-lockdown zero-Covid low-vaccination approach has been shown to be in…

The imcumbent cabinet and politburo are going out of term later this year and a new list of names needs to be appointed and rubber stamped by the upcoming 20th CCP National Congress. The government essentially operate in caretaker mode for several months before the congress and any major policy reversal would be taboo as it could disrupt the political horse trading happening in the background. This is just not the ti…

It says that the congress is in the second half of 2022. That's still months into the future. With Omicron it could be some "interesting times" in those months. Until when does the situation need to appear under control? When could they announce a change of course?

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#99
post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let’s take time to discuss this, as it’s easier to discuss when it happens to another country with an entirely different social system. I was surprised, last year, that techniques we were condescending about, and saying it only happens in China, were applied in Europe and USA. As if it was an emergent property of a human group facing a new disease.

Talks about how magic money doesn’t exist but then printing out checks for everyone and it materially helping loads of people was definitely an Overton window shifter as well. There are principles and a status quo, and it always stays the same… until it changes.

So if magic money exists... what's stopping us from printing out 100x the amount of money? Why not continue this policy indefinitely?

Re: An Account of the Shanghai Lockdown

#100
post #42

I am in China too. In Shenzhen. I think the author is very unkind to the Bao An. I am 100% sure they would treat me the same if there is a similar lockdown here, but I imagine they are under a lot of pressure. My hearts go out to them though. I have a dog here in China, and I am very afraid of what will happen to her if an outbreak like this hits my area. And how can you even have a dog if you can't leave a building…

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