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‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

fullstackeconomics.com

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Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#81
post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Don't be a Dick[1]. Or even xkcd hat guy[2]. [1] https://dilbert.com/strip/2015-04-02 [2] https://xkcd.com/1475

Tell that to the Nobel Foundation: > Not a Nobel Prize > The prize in economic sciences is not a Nobel Prize. https://www.nobelprize.org/nomination/economic-sciences/

This is in the same category as correcting people who say “this data.”

Yes, you’re technically correct. But also, you missed the point and are being self-defeatingly pedantic. The economics prize is valued for all the reasons the Nobel prizes are; they carry similar prestige and are thus used interchangeably.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#82
In Europe we have had no housing bubble because mortgage rates are higher by a few %, and no investment mortgages are available for retail 'investors'. You are lucky to even get one on a stable salary. There are zero possibilities for investors to buy up and hoard houses unless they do so in cash.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#83
post #9
post #3

Paul Krugman described the effect memorably in 2005. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/that-hissing-soun... "Then there are the numbers. Many bubble deniers point to average prices for the country as a whole, which look worrisome but not totally crazy. When it comes to housing, however, the United States is really two countries, Flatland and the Zoned Zone. In Flatland, which occupies the middle of the count…

Which is crazy, because you would think that Australia was mostly Flatland! It's the size of the continental US, with a population lower than Texas. Everyone here lives in the capital cities, and last I looked there were almost no tech jobs at all further up the coast between Sydney and Brisbane. I wonder if pandemic working from home is going to change this, some of our devs have already moved up the coast...

You can buy remote country houses for around 100k ..

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Adding that although 'the Fed receiving taxpayer funds to prop up the stock market' happened, the USD as the world reserve currency allowed the Fed to create digital dollars ('money printer goes brrr' in wall street parlance) until eventually there are so many dollars in circulation we get inflation ...and here we are...one of the reasons the US now has a weaponized dollar and China and Russia are now openly challeng…

> one of the reasons the US now has a weaponized dollar and China and Russia are now openly challenging the reserve currency Ah yes, people are just flocking to buy roubles as an inflation hedge, and there's definitely no war on.

Russia has the biggest goal reserves on the planet, presumably in an attempt to attack the fiat dollar. Hot wars are usually ultimately about money.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#85

There is no doubt that the entire housing market was exploited to float the US economy and covered up a recession dating from 2000-2001 until the housing market could no longer be sustained resulting in a complete collapse of the financial markets and banking. The housing market didn’t “snap back” rather two unprecedented tax payer stimulus packages totaling just shy of $2T were given to the banks to finance millions…

All hail us rich savers, our savings must be subsidized at all costs. The fact that there is barely anything to invest in, the fact that any further investment would make us a loss, all of that must be ignored because human time can obviously be owned and if the people that this time represents dare to do something as foolish as age while they wait for us to employ them, they are clearly stealing from us the value of our money! Aging is a sin. Starvation is a sin. Homelessness is a sin. So we let the government indirectly borrow money from us, to pay for welfare, to keep these people alive so they stop stealing the value of our money from us by dying. How dare they die!

The fact that this debt isn't paid by us but rather by the working class, is how we get away with this scheme. After all, those who work for a living, those who spend almost all of their money, unable to save it for the sake of subjugating society, spending it just to live their life, using it as the medium of exchange so many postulate it to be, do not have any significant savings to speak of and would not significantly benefit from any reward that is proportional to how much they own.

I must remind everyone that the Greece financial crisis was actually a bank bailout program for German banks. After all, savings are the holy cow of the rich. If you take something away that didn't exist, in proportion to how much the real world lost, you are a communist.

If you can't touch the savings and the savings keep growing, the economy must grow in lock step with the savings. Endless growth is just a subsidy to endless savers since you can't tell them to stop.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#86
post #21

Interesting view and great data crunching. But I am amazed how one can write a long article purportedly about the causes of the 07/08 crisis without ever mentioning credit quality. By my impression, the prevailing view is that the crisis was caused by poor credit quality of some home buyers (I remember the term NINJA borrowers - no income, no job or assets). This was masked away in complex financial products (CDOs,..…

> caused by poor credit quality of some home buyers Small detail but the wording here implies a causation, that it was the home buyers who were the makers of the crisis. Whereas we now have ample evidence that it was the real estate companies and mortgage lenders who when faced with free money, became predatorial of people who had no capacity or understanding of the financials of becoming a home owner. We can always…

At what point do you think individual adults should be responsible for their own decisions?

“No capacity or understanding of the financials” makes it sound like these fully grown functioning adults had a learning disability. These people had access to the internet, books, libraries, financial services, and more. If these people were ignorant of the true costs it was willful ignorance.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#87
post #9
post #3

Paul Krugman described the effect memorably in 2005. https://www.nytimes.com/2005/08/08/opinion/that-hissing-soun... "Then there are the numbers. Many bubble deniers point to average prices for the country as a whole, which look worrisome but not totally crazy. When it comes to housing, however, the United States is really two countries, Flatland and the Zoned Zone. In Flatland, which occupies the middle of the count…

Which is crazy, because you would think that Australia was mostly Flatland! It's the size of the continental US, with a population lower than Texas. Everyone here lives in the capital cities, and last I looked there were almost no tech jobs at all further up the coast between Sydney and Brisbane. I wonder if pandemic working from home is going to change this, some of our devs have already moved up the coast...

> some of our devs have already moved up the coast...

How do they do this and stay connected? I remember seeing a guy that did this in a van while subscribing to multiple wireless providers. But as far as I am aware Australia still doesn't have the best coverage, service and technology. Moreover, if you're going out more remote locations, I'm sure your connection options start to dwindle.

I'm sure Starlink (maybe oneweb too?) and the WFH movement is going to change this equation quite drastically.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#88

> And yet not very many people think we’re in the middle of a second housing bubble. Really? It seems pretty obvious to me that we're in the middle of a huge bubble. The problem is the bubble may not pop for decades because propping up the bubble is government policy at every level from federal to state to local. And if they ever stop, tons of people will be totally screwed. Never mind that even more people are getti…

If it takes several decades for the bubble to pop then it isn’t a bubble.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> one of the reasons the US now has a weaponized dollar and China and Russia are now openly challenging the reserve currency Ah yes, people are just flocking to buy roubles as an inflation hedge, and there's definitely no war on.

Russia has the biggest goal reserves on the planet, presumably in an attempt to attack the fiat dollar. Hot wars are usually ultimately about money.

Not only does Russia not have the biggest gold reserves on the planet, they are 5th after the US, Germany, Italy and France.

The US has just about 4 times more gold reserves than Russia and more than double that of Germany in 2nd.

Re: ‘Housing in ‘07 wasn’t a bubble” is a true statement that almost no one believes

#90
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia has the biggest goal reserves on the planet, presumably in an attempt to attack the fiat dollar. Hot wars are usually ultimately about money.

Not only does Russia not have the biggest gold reserves on the planet, they are 5th after the US, Germany, Italy and France. The US has just about 4 times more gold reserves than Russia and more than double that of Germany in 2nd.

https://www.statista.com/chart/26940/russian-central-bank-fo...
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