Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes • Hacker News Board

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#451

Post by givemeethekeys » Thu, Apr 07, 2022, 9:30 PM UTC

dsnr wrote: post #25

mperham wrote: post #20

Liberal governments will do everything but the one thing that will solve the problem: make it much, much easier to actually build more housing. Everything else is just pointless busywork.

This is not really guaranteed to solve the problem. It will only be a part of the solution. In many countries, including Europe, new properties are quickly snatched by investment companies that have much easier access to capital than private individuals and can easily afford to pay above market prices. People shouldn’t really have to compete with companies or “investors” on the housing market.

> This is not really guaranteed to solve the problem. In Europe, new properties are not readily snatched up. Just look at Italy. A growing supply that outpaces demand is literally the only solution. Every other solution will cause a black market.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#452

Post by robocat » Thu, Apr 07, 2022, 9:30 PM UTC

Tiktaalik wrote: post #205

boplicity wrote: post #88

> During last year’s election campaign, Trudeau’s party also proposed a ban on “blind bidding” for houses -- the prevailing system by which offers are kept secret when someone is auctioning a home. This is such a huge deal. Anyone who has had to go through the process of buying a home through a bidding war knows how unfair and one-sided this process is. It take a high-pressure emotional situation, and gives all of th…

worth noting that Aus and NZ don't have blind bidding and have severe housing issues as well.

New Zealand has deadline sales, which you sign a blind offer with whatever conditions you want, and then the vendor can choose any offer or change the rules or ask for more money or do basically anything they want.

There are also tenders, which I don’t know much about.

And I have seen auctions where they set the reserve at a ridiculously high amount, and then negotiate with the highest bidder. A few years ago, one place I was underbidder at $280k (for something that I thought should go for about $250k), final bid was $290k, then vendor negotiated that bidder up to $350k! Another I was underbidder at $190k, final bidder was at $200k, then vendor negotiated them up to $250k.

The dirtiest trick that real estate agents do is to convince/pressure vendors to bring the date of sale forward. Sale goes through at a lower price, agent does less work and turns over their properties more quickly (which vastly enhances the agents yearly profits).

New Zealand restricted sales to foreign buyers in 2018, to prevent ballooning property prices for New Zealanders. Also rich foreigners buying large farms and prime coastal real estate was unpopular with most of the voting public?

Edit: when the real estate market was burning hot, lots of sales were deadline (blind). I think deadline sales mean that the winner often has bid their highest price (I certainly did for my home). In auctions you often pay just a little bit over the underbidder, even if your top dollar might have been potentially a lot higher. When selling you mostly care about that one person who really loves your place and that is willing to, and can afford to, pay well over market price for it. All other potential buyers are just wasting time.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#453

Post by imtringued » Thu, Apr 07, 2022, 9:31 PM UTC

Ensorceled wrote: post #142

AzzieElbab wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think people are missing the fact that for many Canadians values of their homes represent their live savings. So while homeownership remains high in Canada doing something substantial about re prices would ruin peoples lives.

We are at the point where foreign and Canadian speculation in housing is making housing totally unaffordable for the vast majority of Canadians. In a country of less than 40 million, it's pretty easy to swamp our markets. We need to take speculation out of the marketplace. I'd also like to see a ban on corporations purchasing private homes and significant tax increases on non principle residences.

How about you introduce a land value tax, primarily for corporate owned properties and a tax break for owner occupied properties and a small tax break for small private land lords with less than 5 properties. Like a 50% reduction for the first 500m^2 of land that a person owns.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#454

Post by tomatowurst » Thu, Apr 07, 2022, 9:31 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #244

tomatowurst wrote: post #241

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Perhaps. We already went through this in the 80s with the Japanese, and after the Japanese real estate bubble burst, Vancouver real estate was depressed for almost a decade (I remember the signs for condos starting at $100k in 1997! And no one was blaming the Hong Kongese for that at the time). China is just Japan 2.0 in this regard: after the Chinese property bubble bursts, Vancouver real estate will be heavily ef…

> Now the Chinese real estate market is incomplete shambles Chinese real estate prices are still pretty high. The government keeps things from bursting by controlling the real estate agents and their companies (owned mostly by red families, they just taper off on sales volume instead of letting prices fall). We will see how long they can keep juggling that. Which is why rich Chinese like to invest in western property…

the Chinese communist party elites send money abroad is to put it out of reach. Very tough for the CCP to auction off your property in Canada or United States.

For the Japanese it was cheap debt that exported property inflation which led to an immediate drop in liquidity however currently there is cheap debt locally and its the locals participating in the real estate speculation.

the actual foreign ownership is like less than 5% in Vancouver yet the media and establishment constantly loves to shift attention away from REIT and institutional money, rich Canadians and against scapegoat groups.

unlike the melting pot system you have in America, Canadians fall into ethnic tribalism, safety in similarity. There's an idea that everyone can be Canadian/American but its implicit understanding that it is false. Canadians have this sort of superiority complex and see themselves holier than thou, it is far more broken than America in some ways and just in my personal interactions, Americans by large, were far more "Canadian" than real Canadians.

The country honestly feels very much broken and the more dystopian and divided it becomes, the more it will push people on the fringes away to isolation. Ethnic enclaves aren't by choice, they are a byproduct of an unwelcoming and implicitly hostile incumbent establishment.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#455

Post by dionidium » Thu, Apr 07, 2022, 9:31 PM UTC

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #256

dionidium wrote: post #245

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but crucially it's actually land that's valuable, not the housing that sits on it. The worry that allowing more density will tank home values is misguided. Land prices will keep going up as long as the land underneath the houses remains desirable. In fact, upzoning means more allowed uses, which means higher land values, which means more money for landowners. There are two implications of this: 1) NIMBYs need to…

> NIMBYs need to realize that allowing more housing isn't going to tank prices. ... When they tell you that they don't want their neighborhood to densify they actually mean it. Ya, a lot of NIMBYs don't care about housing prices since they aren't thinking about selling anytime soon, they just don't want the traffic and (perhaps) crime that goes along with density. I get what they mean since I became home owner. I don…

> they just don't want the traffic and (perhaps) crime that goes along with density.

Something I've been trying to think through recently is that people clearly have some kind of proximity theory of crime. If there is a murder in the building next door to me, then that's going to make me uncomfortable, whether there is one family living in that building or 10. The obvious urbanist (or generic intellectual) response to this is to say, you know, obviously there will be more crimes in a neighborhood with more families, but you should only care about the per capita numbers, not absolute totals.

And increasingly I just think, yeah, obviously that's right, but that answer isn't good enough. Fear of interpersonal violence is lodged deep in our brains and I just don't think you can talk people out of it. You could make everybody in the city attend a class on crime statistics and quiz them at the end to make sure they understand per capita rates, but when those people get home that night they're still going to be worried about the murder that happened next door. And I don't think it's because they're dumb.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#456

Post by dane-pgp » Thu, Apr 07, 2022, 9:32 PM UTC

loceng wrote: post #401

dane-pgp wrote: post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with you that the voting system is letting down Canadians, but I also think you are using an unfair framing with your "20%" figure which risks undermining the legitimacy of coalition governments (and thus efforts to introduce a more representative voting system where coalitions between smaller parties might become more common). In particular, I want to point out that the NDP have agreed to help the Liberal go…

And 30% making decisions for all of Canada is being argued as a good thing and fair, that my framing is unfair? Thank Goodness we have the Senate that requires passing these measures, these harmless ones like this one because it basically does nothing, but thankfully would have voted down the Emergency Act being extended for a month - which is why Trudeau the night before revoked it himself. I hope you're against Bil…

> And 30% making decisions for all of Canada is being argued as a good thing and fair, that my framing is unfair?

I'm not claiming it's a good thing, just that your headline figure of 20% makes it sound like coalition governments are somehow less good and less fair than single-party governments.

Anyway, yes, you'll be glad to know that I'm against permanent "emergency" powers, and concerned about Canada's internet censorship bill, which seems to be an attempt to control social media as tightly as (government-approved) broadcast media[0].

[0] https://reclaimthenet.org/canadas-internet-censorship-bill-i...

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#457

Post by paulhart » Thu, Apr 07, 2022, 9:33 PM UTC

52-6F-62 wrote: post #328

michael1999 wrote: post #282

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canada is a big country. But immigration goes where the jobs are, and those are concentrated in 3-5 large cities which are hitting the limits of sprawl (congested highway commute time) and geography (water and mountains). Densification is unpopular with existing municipal voters, and bankrupting CPP would be unpopular with federal voters.

Densification is absolutely not unpopular with municipal voters! My current city, Hamilton, is currently fighting with the Ontario government over this matter. The mayor is a regular feature on the local news and speaks to that often. Their major push is for more density and resources for urban development. The provincial government has pushed for developing in Ontario's green belt and watershed instead. They've face…

Fellow Hamiltonian here...

Council wasn't for intensification until they got the results of the poll back (and even then, the likes of Ferguson continue to be aghast at the idea of not being in the pockets of suburban developers).

We can see that with the kneejerk response to Bill 109, and the fact that only one Secondary Housing Unit has been approved by the city so far, the rest denied for what seem like vague reasons that won't hold up at OLT.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#458

Post by slg » Thu, Apr 07, 2022, 9:34 PM UTC

rank0 wrote: post #434

slg wrote: post #409

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I never said it was an "elaborate scheme orchestrated by all the homeowners." It is a natural result of people independently acting purely based on their personal incentives. Homeowners don't need to orchestrate and elaborate scheme, they just vote for the politicians who will prioritize increasing home values because that will help them financially. That politician will enact policies favorable to homeowners because…

> Homeowners don't need to orchestrate and elaborate scheme, they just vote for the politicians who will prioritize increasing home values because that will help them financially. Or y'know...maybe homeowners don't want to have their neighborhood become overcrowded. Not everyone wants to live in a megacity with traffic, air pollution, constant bustle, and restricted personal liberty. If financial gain is your only mo…

>Or y'know...maybe homeowners don't want to have their neighborhood become overcrowded.

Nothing I said here is specific to neighborhoods. It also applies at the city, state/province, and national level. A homeowner in San Diego likely doesn't care about the density of various neighborhood in San Francisco. But they might still vote for Prop 13 which put harsh limitations on property taxes in the state and in turn increased the value of homeownership and the cost of housing. That decision has nothing to do with personal preferences of what type of neighborhood in which people want to live. It is purely homeowners being powerful enough to vote themselves tax breaks which makes homeownership more attractive which makes homeowners more powerful...

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#459

Post by rank0 » Thu, Apr 07, 2022, 9:35 PM UTC

imtringued wrote: post #429

rank0 wrote: post #380

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Speculation isn’t great, but let’s not pretend this is some elaborate scheme orchestrated by all the homeowners. If it’s feasible and profitable to build new homes, then developers will do so. Everyone loves the simple solution of “build more houses”. Very few actually consider the execution of the master plan. What would it take for you to start building homes? It’s an enormous risk, requires tons of upfront capital…

> Speculation isn’t great, but let’s not pretend this is some elaborate scheme orchestrated by all the homeowners. No, but real estate companies wouldn't be able to lower property taxes alone. It's only happening once there is a critical mass of homeowners that is voting themselves a tax cut. Large real estate companies get exactly the same tax cut and since they have more property they benefit more than the average…

If most voters are homeowners then what exactly do we expect? Of course they're going to push for lower property taxes...maybe homeowners feel that their money already gets taxed 5+ times before they can spend it on their literal shelter. Most folks effectively work for the government 4 months/yr AND owning property requires another annual fee to the tax man.

High property taxes hurt renters too. Rent prices increase to cover the difference.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#460

Post by chaostheory » Thu, Apr 07, 2022, 9:35 PM UTC

qball wrote: post #330

edgyquant wrote: post #295

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can they not move to nearby cities and commute?

Well, they thought of that; it's just as expensive out there too. If you want a house and a job in this country, you have to go to Alberta, Saskatchewan, or Manitoba. BC has no land and is either mountain or agricultural land reserve (the second-largest city in the province has massive fields in the middle of it; average single family home price $1M). ON and QC are similarly boxed in for land (the Canadian Shield is…

Would this change due to climate change? I’ve been looking at the climate trends in major cities and there are some drastic temperature changes in the coming decades.