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Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

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Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#311
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an interesting question, what is worse for buyers, blind or open bids? Blinds bids prevent bidding wars. They use them in Scotland. Not sure if buyer or seller is better off using them.

> Not sure if buyer or seller is better off using them. There's a theorem an auction design that says that, under some vaguely reasonable assumptions about bidder information, it doesn't matter what form you use for the auction. Open auction, sealed auction, even second price auction should all give the same winner and same final price: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vickrey_auction#:~:text=Revenu...

That's not entirely correct. The theorem says that in Vickrey auctions (sealed bid 2nd price), each bidder's optimal strategy is to bid their actual valuation of the auctioned object.

It doesn't work with open bidding, because then you could bid artificially much as long as the 2nd highest bid was at your real valuation or below.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#312

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have a mortgage too? Would you be happy owing the bank more than your property is worth?

Who would be happy with that? And who is happy with not being able to afford a house? What does happiness gave to do with it? You made a financial bet on buying your house for certain price. There’s always a risk in that price going down after you buy it. Sucks for you but the price going up for you just sucks for someone else.

Unhappy voters matter

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#313

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it so far fetched to assume some realtors may be juicing the bidding to increase their own commission and to make their firm more uhh "prestigious" by being able to drive up the price for their own marketing purposes further down the line. Likewise if you dont know who you're bidding against, how do you even know the bidder is even real (foreign or not)? Transparency is good thing. While there may be some "scarcit…

Is it so far fetched to assume some realtors may be juicing the bidding to... Of course not, and I didn't say that I'm completely against reforming the real estate industry and the bidding process. But it won't fix expensive housing. It's all bullsh*t if it doesn't address scarcity. In 2016 we had had 10 years of 2% population growth in Vancouver and 1.2% housing stock growth and we wanted to blame foreign investors,…

I agree that scarcity is the main issue, but how do you address it in a city like Vancouver? There’s no more land and downtown is dense. Make artificial islands? Deforest the mountainsides and build on 40 degree slopes? Replace local farms with subdivisions?

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#314

> During last year’s election campaign, Trudeau’s party also proposed a ban on “blind bidding” for houses -- the prevailing system by which offers are kept secret when someone is auctioning a home. This is such a huge deal. Anyone who has had to go through the process of buying a home through a bidding war knows how unfair and one-sided this process is. It take a high-pressure emotional situation, and gives all of th…

You're fighting scarcity. You still won't win the bidding war - it just won't be as one-sided. Stop championing scarcity by blaming scapegoats. Either we limit Canada's crazy-high immigration rate (1% of population every year) or we build more homes which is mostly gated by illiberal zoning laws passed by municipalities. But both of these policies are very popular so you'll be swimming upstream, politically. While yo…

1%/year is not a crazy-high rate, considering that Canadian fertility is below replacement.

If the country can't figure out how to deal with a population growth of ~1%/year, the problem is not the growth, the problem is somewhere else.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#315
The student exemption makes this decree useless. I live in the Bay Area and in my personal life cross paths with Mainland Chinese living their personal lives. I have more than once attended birthday parties at high-end houses that are sparsely furnished and inhabited except for a single “student”.

As a non-affluent person, I don’t know if rich Americans do the same thing. However, enrolling your child in a Master’s program, who takes the minimum number of credits per semester, may pencil in as a good property management option for someone with no ties to the U.S. otherwise and only wants capital appreciation.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#316
post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>This is such a huge deal. Is it though? I chatted with someone from Australia which has open bidding and you know what .. houses still went way over reserve. At the end of the day, if you have 20+ offers on a house, you're not getting that house without destroying your budget, no matter how you set up the bid system. The common sense change I wanted to see implemented was to prevent the waiving of a home inspection…

Fun fact: you can waive your inspection contingency … and then still go inspect the house. Just bring your inspector along to a showing or open house, etc. Owners won’t even be there.

You're not going to be able to do a full inspection during an open house, the listing agent isn't going to let you climb on the roof, go into crawlspaces/attic, trip off all the GFCI breakers in the house, etc.

What you're suggesting is called a "walk-and-talk" inspection, and is not going to find the high dollar problems a traditional inspection can find.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people writing the laws are all about the scarcity, and they aren’t on HN and you can’t take any shots at them or tell them to f*ck off. They’ve gotten this far by diligently min maxing and if you think they are going to have a change of heart, you’re way off base.

You've mistaken me for someone who thinks there's a political needle that can be threaded here. I completely agree with you - housing prices are high, mechanically, because of scarcity. But scarcity exists because voters like high housing prices. The truth is that most Canadians own property and are perfectly happy with their $1-3 million in equity. And regardless of their stated preferences for affordable housing, t…

Having grown up poor, I was going to challenge the statement that 'most Canadians own property', but it looks like it's ~70%.

I mean, I think hanging 30% of your population out to dry is a bad idea, but I can't argue that this isn't a tyranny of the majority situation (or maybe tyranny of those in power, of which I expect closer to 100% are property owners).

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well I share your feelings toward the whole situation for sure but I'm not sure that just building more will do much of anything. As long as we have folks buying with the intention of parking money or using homes as an "investment" you're going to have competition with much deeper pockets. This outside competition detaches local prices from the local economy. Likewise the speculation sets an anchor(comp) for neighbor…

...but I'm not sure that just building more will do much of anything As long as we have folks buying with the intention of parking money or using homes as an "investment" you're going to have competition with much deeper pockets Why do you think foreign investors want to overpay for a Vancouver Special? And what do they do with it once they buy it? Do they live in it? If so, what you're upset about is population grow…

> Do those foreign investors leave the house empty? Who cares if we can just build more?

I'll note here that there is a legitimate complaint to vacant housing. Some expensive city infrastructure like transit is supported by people-density rather than house-density, so a community of empty homes doesn't justify a subway line in the way that a bustling, lived-in community would.

Municipal funding that comes from the provincial level is also supported implicitly by income and sales (value-added) taxes rather than property taxes, so empty homes can easily create an imbalance of cost and revenue. The same also goes for cases of alleged tax evasion, where one globe-trotting patriarch supports their live-in family without declaring and paying Canadian taxes on income as a resident.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#319

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it so far fetched to assume some realtors may be juicing the bidding to increase their own commission and to make their firm more uhh "prestigious" by being able to drive up the price for their own marketing purposes further down the line. Likewise if you dont know who you're bidding against, how do you even know the bidder is even real (foreign or not)? Transparency is good thing. While there may be some "scarcit…

Is it so far fetched to assume some realtors may be juicing the bidding to... Of course not, and I didn't say that I'm completely against reforming the real estate industry and the bidding process. But it won't fix expensive housing. It's all bullsh*t if it doesn't address scarcity. In 2016 we had had 10 years of 2% population growth in Vancouver and 1.2% housing stock growth and we wanted to blame foreign investors,…

To summarize, you argue that it's a supply-side problem and not a demand-side one.

Re: Canada to ban foreigners from buying homes

#320
Focusing on foreign buyers is a distractionary tactic. The primary cause of housing value spiking comes down to investors and speculators. Combat those, and the marketplace will return to sane valuations:

• Speculation tax of 50% of the assessed or sold home value (whichever is greater) of any home held for less than two years, decreasing on a daily basis to 0% over years 3 through 8. Exemptions can be had due to extenuating circumstances (military or police redeployment, divorce, death of co-holder of title, etc.). Because most pre-sales are snatched up by investors before ground has even been broken, only to be sold for two or three times its original value upon completion.

• Businesses (and by proxy, business owners that own multiple businesses) cannot own more than one rental residence per municipal district. This prevents speculators from buying up entire neighbourhoods just to jack up rents. There is a valid case for a business to own a residence (to host guests of the business), but anything more than the occasional guest can be put up in a hotel.

• Individual non-business landlords cannot derive more than 50% of their income from rental properties. Another method is to have taxes on rental income on a sliding scale depending on what proportion of their entire personal income rent is a part of, starting at normal rates up to 20% of income and rising to 100% taxation at the point where 100% of income is rental income.

The last one alone ought to protect people for whom landlording is NOT a full time job in of itself, such as people with mortgage helper suites or second homes that they upgraded from.

The point being, those with just one or three units are far less likely to be predatory than slumlords who own entire apartment blocks or institutional investors that own a significant block of rental units in a city.

And such a progressive taxation scheme ought to materially prevent rentals from being dominated by a handful of investors.

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