Ask HN: Would a universal basic income lead to inflation?

If UBI is setup as more of a survival supplement than an amount of money desireable to live on entirely, then no.

It also has to offset benefits received from other programs like welfare, unemployment to help cover the cost.

IMO $700 / month is about the right number where it helps with basic needs and dry spells but isn’t so much that you’re incentivized to withdraw from the job market entirely.

At the same time, minimum wage can go away entirely if UBI is in place since the UBI doesn’t go away like unemployment the moment you have a paycheck. You work to earn more, not trade income sources.

The disaster of employers having to raise their standards (and wages) to actually attract workers?

The question is where did you get the $1,000 from. If you print money to build a bridge then you can argue that building a bridge caused inflation, but it wasn’t the bridge that was at fault.

Inflation is a scalar measure of a vector valued phenomena. It is usually scalarized using a basket of goods. The impact on the basket of goods people will buy if there is a basic income is hard to model and will likely be bigger then whatever monetary effects an UBI causes. Here are some random predictions anyway:

Subpar food prices will fall until that industry dies. Value items will become more expensive until the demands of everyone being able to afford them is satisfied. Prices for luxury goods will fall, some luxury industries might die. Automation will become more prevalent and cheaper. Car and gas prices will fall as people are less reliant to drive to far away work places. Consumer electronic prices will rise for entertainment related things and fall for things like dish washers. Culture will become cheaper. Land value will fall while houses become more expensive.

There is a distinction between "price inflation" and "inflation". Even the Federal Reserve allows for this distinction.

>A historical look at the origin and uses of the word inflation, arguing that although the term has become nearly synonymous with "price increase," its original meaning—a rise in the general price level caused by an imbalance between the quantity of money and trade needs—is the definition driving many of those who advocate an anti-inflation policy for the Federal Reserve.

https://www.clevelandfed.org/en/newsroom-and-events/publicat...

That said, even if the actual supply of money (literally inflation) is not increased, if there is more money available for spending by lower income individuals, it stands to reason that price inflation would follow in the sectors of the economy which they participate.