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40% of California's small businesses died in the last two years

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Re: 40% of California's small businesses died in the last two years

#11
That chart is as of June 2, 2021. California didn't lift its COVID restrictions until June 15, 2021. The numbers started increasing soon after. Here is the current version of the same chart:

https://tracktherecovery.org/?zy41m

> In California, as of January 16 2022, the number of small businesses open increased by 1.1% compared to January 2020.

Re: 40% of California's small businesses died in the last two years

#12
post #11

That chart is as of June 2, 2021. California didn't lift its COVID restrictions until June 15, 2021. The numbers started increasing soon after. Here is the current version of the same chart: https://tracktherecovery.org/?zy41m > In California, as of January 16 2022, the number of small businesses open increased by 1.1% compared to January 2020.

It looks like you’re looking at a different chart, which is weird because they look like they’re from the same source. The tweeted pic of the chart shows -40% but the chart you linked never shows a value that low for the date mentioned.

Re: 40% of California's small businesses died in the last two years

#13
post #11

That chart is as of June 2, 2021. California didn't lift its COVID restrictions until June 15, 2021. The numbers started increasing soon after. Here is the current version of the same chart: https://tracktherecovery.org/?zy41m > In California, as of January 16 2022, the number of small businesses open increased by 1.1% compared to January 2020.

It looks like you’re looking at a different chart, which is weird because they look like they’re from the same source. The tweeted pic of the chart shows -40% but the chart you linked never shows a value that low for the date mentioned.

They changed their methodology in March (the tweeted screenshot was taken before then). If you hover over the little triangle next to the title, it says: "We improved the data quality of the Small Business Revenue & Openings series using panel data: our previously posted data relied on a repeated cross-section." And there's a link to this document:

https://github.com/OpportunityInsights/EconomicTracker/blob/...

Re: 40% of California's small businesses died in the last two years

#14
post #3

Not surprising, I see so many downtown areas still closed in the SJ area. It's tough to open a business when the people in the area don't have the money to buy your products. When 2/3rd's of the nation are paycheck to paycheck, even in an affluent area like SJ, if your business is not providing something extremely essential, then you are effectively marketing to just 1/3rd of the population with money. This tautology…

Except this is the opposite of the actual problem. There's plenty of cash floating around right now: it's why inflation is high. We're finally hitting real supply limits. It's the hottest job market in most people's lifetimes. The fact of the matter is most small businesses are crap businesses. They also abuse their workers in ways big business can't get away with, both illegally and legally. If you work for an emplo…

You also need to look at income distribution. It is true that 'plenty of cash is floating around'; however, the distribution of this floating cash matters. Yes, Starbucks baristas, some clerk at a transportation company, etc are making $24 per hour in the bay area; but most of it goes to rent (inflated rent), food (inflated food prices), etc. The people with most money floating around are buying four or five investment properties in Texas or a second home in the bay area or third home in Manteca. Someone has to pay rents for these, and the increased home prices (as a consequence, increased rents) impact how much one has to pay for a meal at some restaurant in the downtown SJ.

Re: 40% of California's small businesses died in the last two years

#17

Not surprising, I see so many downtown areas still closed in the SJ area. It's tough to open a business when the people in the area don't have the money to buy your products. When 2/3rd's of the nation are paycheck to paycheck, even in an affluent area like SJ, if your business is not providing something extremely essential, then you are effectively marketing to just 1/3rd of the population with money. This tautology…

> Not surprising, I see so many downtown areas still closed in the SJ area.

It depends. The Mexican restaurants did really well. (They went to outside seating in tents that was much larger than what they had before and are packed.) The Asian restaurants, not so much.

It might be a downtown thing more than an Asian/Mexican thing.

San Jose has spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the decades trying to create a downtown that is barely self-sustaining during the best of times. It was limping (which is about as good as it gets) before Covid and then, wham.

I suspect that downtown SJ redevelopment actually a pay-off to developers.

Re: 40% of California's small businesses died in the last two years

#19
post #3

Not surprising, I see so many downtown areas still closed in the SJ area. It's tough to open a business when the people in the area don't have the money to buy your products. When 2/3rd's of the nation are paycheck to paycheck, even in an affluent area like SJ, if your business is not providing something extremely essential, then you are effectively marketing to just 1/3rd of the population with money. This tautology…

Except this is the opposite of the actual problem. There's plenty of cash floating around right now: it's why inflation is high. We're finally hitting real supply limits. It's the hottest job market in most people's lifetimes. The fact of the matter is most small businesses are crap businesses. They also abuse their workers in ways big business can't get away with, both illegally and legally. If you work for an emplo…

> The fact of the matter is most small businesses are crap businesses.

> They also abuse their workers in ways big business can't get away with, both illegally and legally.

Really? You know this to be a fact?

It appears that the only thing you know about small business comes from what you read on /r/antiwork

The fact of the matter is that 47% of Americans are employed by small businesses. That percentage keeps dropping, not because the owners are assholes, but because mega corporations keep getting larger and more monopolistic.

Most small businesses run on razor thin margins because they don't have the economies of scale that the larger corps enjoy.

My friend owns a cidery. The cost of his raw materials (juice concentrate and sugar) have gone up over 300% in the last 18 months, thanks to supply chain issues and worker shortages due to Covid. The prices are due to get even worse this year.

His total burdened cost for a case of goods has gone up 170%. But he can't just mark his stuff up 170% now can he? He has to settle for a 10% bump in price and hope his distributors don't freak out.

BTW, he has 8 employees and pays health insurance. Afaik, he didn't suffer any employee churn during Covid, cause he's not an asshole.

In most sectors except for maybe fast food, small businesses have suffered not from employee churn, but from the Covid policies over the last two years combined with ridiculous price increases.

Re: 40% of California's small businesses died in the last two years

#20
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except this is the opposite of the actual problem. There's plenty of cash floating around right now: it's why inflation is high. We're finally hitting real supply limits. It's the hottest job market in most people's lifetimes. The fact of the matter is most small businesses are crap businesses. They also abuse their workers in ways big business can't get away with, both illegally and legally. If you work for an emplo…

> The fact of the matter is most small businesses are crap businesses. > They also abuse their workers in ways big business can't get away with, both illegally and legally. Really? You know this to be a fact? It appears that the only thing you know about small business comes from what you read on /r/antiwork The fact of the matter is that 47% of Americans are employed by small businesses. That percentage keeps droppi…

That sounds like a crappy business that can benefit from economies of scale.
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