Earlier quoted context omitted.
What about technology for fixing water shortages due to over-pumping? What about technology to address usages of sand? What about technology to replace synthetic fertilizers derived from natural gas, and or finite resources of phosphate rock? I think there is a big focus on "fossil fuels" but they are not the only resources we're using in an unsustainable way.
Erosion of top soil is a more significant problem than fertilizer. With respect to fertilizers and inorganic phosphate supply, it seems that these are not really necessary(they might actually be detrimental) as long as you provide the right soil microbiome for the crops which can outperform synthetic fertilization[1-2] (though I am very new to this and is outside my field and I am unsure of the validity of their clai…
Are we running out of resources?
191–200 of 204 posts
Re: Are we running out of resources?
#192Earlier quoted context omitted.
Define "catastrophe". Are we already in one? I do expect our emissions to get almost halved during this decade, and for carbon capture to become a practical thing on the next one. But depending on what you want, even this isn't enough.
I won't define catastrophe, but : > I do expect our emissions to get almost halved during this decade That's really good news ! I mean it's so far away from what I know that I sure have missed something. Could you give a few pointers that illustrate your expectation ? (honest question)
But I do expect electrification to increase a lot this decade, and for renewables to take over the electricity generation so completely that other sources will only be able to compete with batteries, not with original renewable electricity.
If you extend our current trends, you will get into more than half of the energy being non-polluting. But most of it being new consumption, instead of replacing older sources.
Most sources on electricity agree to an unsettling level, so they are probably repeating each other. Here's one as good as any:
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/electricity-g...
For vehicle electrification, it's harder to find data, but everything has a huge rate of growth that will probably saturate on this decade:
https://www.iea.org/articles/global-ev-data-explorer
What will change on this decade that people usually don't take into account on their conclusions is that wind to a small extent and PV for a huge extent are already cheaper than most electricity sources, and getting cheaper by the day. The limits on PV price are so low we probably won't even be reach them this decade.
That places a real force on every process that heavily uses energy to take advantage of that cheap PV energy, or get outcompeted. Or in other words, the economic reality that have always got in the ways of renewables are now getting in the way of fossil fuels. So I expect the fossil fuel infrastructure to become obsolete and that new renewable energy that we will get to replace it instead of adding to it.
Notice that this is already happening on that data above. On a linear trend it's not fast enough to replace half of our emissions this decade, but on an exponential trend, it's more than fast enough. Well, the change into renewables has been exponential for decades already, that's how immature technologies work. Given that the limits on PV price are so low, I still don't expect it to change this decade.
Re: Are we running out of resources?
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
It doesn't. If you leave people to it, and people need something, someone will come along and offer a solution for a price. But if you have a vested interest, they will want government legislation to prevent alternative solutions. Now people who have an idea face legal repercussions fines, jail, etc if they try to offer a solution. This is the case in many industries, from taxis, to rubbish collection, to banking, to…
So you're saying that we're are infinitely resourceful and capable of re-imagining and re-engineering our environment, were it not for other people who can prevent it? Where's the infinite resourcefulness and infinite capability in that?
To resolve this, you would have to have a good idea and the capability to take governmental force (police, law). Do you feel lucky?
Re: Are we running out of resources?
#194Earlier quoted context omitted.
This argument boils down to "it was a good thing we exploited them, it gave them the impetus to fight back against our exploitation". Is this meant to be a dialectical argument or just a really weird moral one?
> and they become less poor afterwards. > This doesn't happen when you're paid subsistence wages, which sweatshop workers are. I’m just trying to figure out if this is true or not. Seems to me the evidence is clear that such workers become wealthier over time. China, the United States, United Kingdom, and others seem to be clear examples of that. Injecting a moral argument here doesn’t change the practical reality of…
My point is that sweatshop workers become less poor when they become tired enough of their conditions to rise up against their masters, not because they are able to put together savings or anything like that.
Re: Are we running out of resources?
#195Earlier quoted context omitted.
So you're saying that we're are infinitely resourceful and capable of re-imagining and re-engineering our environment, were it not for other people who can prevent it? Where's the infinite resourcefulness and infinite capability in that?
Force kills resourcefulness. Good ideas are prohibited. To resolve this, you would have to have a good idea and the capability to take governmental force (police, law). Do you feel lucky?
Re: Are we running out of resources?
#196Worried about farmland? Check out advances in vertical farming.
Worried about space to live? Just wait for a housing price correction.
Worried about energy? Check out the advances in Solar, Small modular reactors, and grid storage possibilities.
The better question isn't "are we running out of resources?" it's "should we be using different resources or the same resources differently?" to which the answer is yes and being explored by scientists and engineers
Re: Are we running out of resources?
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
Don't forget how the bronze age ended.
With the widespread adoption of Naue Type II bronze cutting/thrusting swords and organized infantry that rendered centralized chariot armies -- and the societies that depended on them for defense -- obsolete.
Re: Are we running out of resources?
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
>but I see no issue with billions of people living in cities with easy access to pools, parks, schooling, jobs, and comfortable safe, warm/cool housing and living standards that are science fiction to their immediate ancestors So sand shortages, and water shortages are not a thing?
The problems with water and sand are not physical limits. Like climate change and pollution generally they're just unpriced externalities. We have better solutions already, getting people to use then when they can abuse the situation for short term profit is the hard bit. And ironically, if you intend to abuse the system for short term profit, one of your best moves is to claim the problem is not solvable (though onl…
I'd say it's a little bit of column A and a little bit of column B. They're definitely are physical limits to those things, and they are definitely subject to unpriced externalities at present. I think the water shortages in South Africa are a good case study where the public reacted to avert a crisis once they were made acutely aware that a crisis was imminent if they didn't act. People just take water for granted, until they no longer can. But in saying that there is almost certainly a point at which things just can't keep up, or the alternative cannot be procured/switched to in a short enough time to avoid the disaster. I see it less as a problem of pure physical limits and more as a problem in control theory.
Re: Are we running out of resources?
#199[1] Once generation IV nuclear powered is mastered, that is.
[2] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/04/ipcc-rep...
Re: Are we running out of resources?
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
I won't define catastrophe, but : > I do expect our emissions to get almost halved during this decade That's really good news ! I mean it's so far away from what I know that I sure have missed something. Could you give a few pointers that illustrate your expectation ? (honest question)
I am more optimist than normal here. Most people take different conclusions from the same data. But I do expect electrification to increase a lot this decade, and for renewables to take over the electricity generation so completely that other sources will only be able to compete with batteries, not with original renewable electricity. If you extend our current trends, you will get into more than half of the energy be…