Are we running out of resources? • Hacker News Board

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#161

Post by throwaway6532 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 1:27 AM UTC

ahevia wrote: post #86

pfdietz wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there are plenty of examples of changes, involving both changes in economic incentives and changes in technology, that greatly reduced pollution. To pretend there's some iron law connecting industry and pollution is simply dishonest.

There isn’t, but that change is slow & constantly challenged. Any progress towards protecting the Earth, our environment, and our resources are extremely hard fought, sometimes poorly-implemented, or at risk of being revoked when the government changed hands. It is difficult not to blame industry because they profit off continued pollution & resource exploitation. The markets have a larger short term incentive to mai…

>or at risk of being revoked when the government changed hands.

This is happening now. Everyone is focused on getting to "net-zero" and switching to natural gas as a "transition" to cleaner, more sustainable energy sources. This has resulted in nuclear/coal going offline and being switched out for natural gas and natural gas prices shooting up like crazy, then war breaks out and natural gas imports are at risk and people still need power, so policy makers turn to "well maybe its time to switch the nuclear power plant back on?".

When things shift such that the short-term incentives shift away from the push towards the sustainable, renewable direction then it goes back the other way and it can and will happen.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#162

Post by throwaway6532 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 1:29 AM UTC

bgroat wrote: post #54

pfdietz wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What he is pointing out is the long history of doomsaying being wrong, because it implicitly depends on the assumption that technology has reached its peak and cannot further improve. To get a real doomsaying argument, you have to base it not on details of current technology, but on hard physical limits that no technological improvement can evade. And it's really tough to do that. The population limit for Earth based…

Is there a historical precedent for having a technology that can largely offset these risks (fission and fusion) but not using them? I don't want to say "this time is different" (because I don't know that). But we do find our self in a situation where technology hasn't peaked, but we aren't using the new tech we have

What about technology for fixing water shortages due to over-pumping? What about technology to address usages of sand? What about technology to replace synthetic fertilizers derived from natural gas, and or finite resources of phosphate rock?

I think there is a big focus on "fossil fuels" but they are not the only resources we're using in an unsustainable way.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#163

Post by throwaway6532 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 1:32 AM UTC

pfdietz wrote: post #75

simonh wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem at the moment with renewables is they still don't provide reliable base load, and energy storage systems while useful locally are proving incredibly expensive at scale. The fact is the only option we have right now in many countries for reliable base load generation outside fossil fuels is nuclear. Some other options may eventually become viable, like geothermal or fusion, but there's no realistic prospec…

The "renewables can't supply baseload" has been so well debunked that at this point I have zero respect for anyone (typically nuclear stans) still trotting out that argument. No, renewables damn well can supply baseload, and likely cheaper than fission. The question is exactly which renewable sources and storage technologies will end up being cheapest, not whether they can do it at all.

Is this in theory or in practice?

At this point it's a race against the clock and we're losing it badly. If we can't transition to it before it's too late, then that we could do it in theory isn't worth a whole lot.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#164

Post by throwaway6532 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 1:36 AM UTC

bmitc wrote: post #115

pfdietz wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What he is pointing out is the long history of doomsaying being wrong, because it implicitly depends on the assumption that technology has reached its peak and cannot further improve. To get a real doomsaying argument, you have to base it not on details of current technology, but on hard physical limits that no technological improvement can evade. And it's really tough to do that. The population limit for Earth based…

What about the argument that technological growth and developments are the cause , or at least a catalyst, of all our problems rather than some part of the solution?

Looks like you're getting downvoted, but it seems kind of obvious this is the case. Technology has allowed more people to exist, and more people are using more energy and more resources.

I think it causes cognitive dissonance in that people want the current world and lifestyle to be sustainable because they like it due to it having a lot of fun and comfortable things, and don't wish to consider the idea that it may just may be fatally flawed.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#165

Post by throwaway6532 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 1:40 AM UTC

evrydayhustling wrote: post #37

volatilecarbon wrote: post #13

There were a lot of words here to simply fall back on the argument that innovation will solve every problem and do so before there is significant suffering. I agree that life will always go on, but this idea that consumption and quality of life can do nothing but rise when it is so dependent on the limited cheap energy and resources that we only learned to exploit a century ago is insanity to me. Our ever increasing…

Yeah, although the author is excited about new knowledge, he is ignoring our growing knowledge about toxicity and the costs of disrupting ecosystem resources, as well as the compounding expenses of maintaining a high standard of living at greater population density. You can be optimistic about the long arc of human progress and still realistic about our ability to take catastrophic steps backwards.

>You can be optimistic about the long arc of human progress and still realistic about our ability to take catastrophic steps backwards

This is the line I'm straddling at the moment. If you're not realistic about our ability to take a catastrophic step backwards you'll always just see things as "business as usual" until "business as very unusual" hits.

I find it interesting to research technologies and methods that are potentials for replacing our unsustainable practices and some of what I learn gives me hope, but it's super naive to pin your hopes on "business as usual" continuing based on all of that panning out before the current system is pushed outside its safe operating envelope for too long and non-linear behavior kicks in.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#166

Post by throwaway6532 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 1:43 AM UTC

Longlius wrote: post #131

volatilecarbon wrote: post #13

There were a lot of words here to simply fall back on the argument that innovation will solve every problem and do so before there is significant suffering. I agree that life will always go on, but this idea that consumption and quality of life can do nothing but rise when it is so dependent on the limited cheap energy and resources that we only learned to exploit a century ago is insanity to me. Our ever increasing…

>Our ever-increasing population Even the most optimistic projections put the world population peaking well before 2100. Growth has slowed considerably and will likely continue to slow even more as worldwide economic malaise puts further pressure on birth rates (especially since the developing world is urbanizing and urbanization is correlated with a decline in births per woman).

What say your population of young people halved every generation for three generations. Would your city or country have enough people to keep it functioning given the level of specialization required for the level of complexity it is based on?

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#167

Post by throwaway6532 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 1:44 AM UTC

silicon2401 wrote: post #100

volatilecarbon wrote: post #13

There were a lot of words here to simply fall back on the argument that innovation will solve every problem and do so before there is significant suffering. I agree that life will always go on, but this idea that consumption and quality of life can do nothing but rise when it is so dependent on the limited cheap energy and resources that we only learned to exploit a century ago is insanity to me. Our ever increasing…

> I struggle to see how you could blindly expect this to occur, not even entertaining the thought that even if such an innovation exists, we might not be able to discover it before the consequences of our current behavior sets in. People believe what's convenient. It's inconvenient to be realistic and accept that we're heading in a bad direction (because then we all have to sacrifice comforts). Rome and its way of li…

Don't forget how the bronze age ended.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#168

Post by throwaway6532 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 1:45 AM UTC

slothtrop wrote: post #69

volatilecarbon wrote: post #13

There were a lot of words here to simply fall back on the argument that innovation will solve every problem and do so before there is significant suffering. I agree that life will always go on, but this idea that consumption and quality of life can do nothing but rise when it is so dependent on the limited cheap energy and resources that we only learned to exploit a century ago is insanity to me. Our ever increasing…

Population is projected to level out, so it's a moot point. We're facing a crucial need specifically for curbing emissions in the short-run, but we're unlikely to too rapidly exploit resources by virtue that growth in demand will stall and efficiency will continue to improve. Incidentally that can be a catalyst for change in the way society functions. The significant choice facing us is determining the path we take t…

>Population is projected to level out, so it's a moot point.

Is it projected to level out or to decline? Because birth rates below replacement indicate decline, not leveling out.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#169

Post by throwaway6532 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 1:48 AM UTC

rob74 wrote: post #8

> Everyone should be living much more like the most wealthy people in the most wealthy nations are living now. It should be considered a moral abomination that billions of people are not living in multiple story homes with robotic assistants to control their lights, security, doors, air-conditioning and the temperature of their pools. As with the rest of the article, I'm really not sure if this is irony or hubris? If…

>As with the rest of the article, I'm really not sure if this is irony or hubris? If everybody had these conditions of living, we would either need a larger planet or a lot less people on it.

If you had a lot less people on it, you wouldn't have the labor force needed to keep that standard of living functioning :)

It's hubris in the extreme.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#170

Post by throwaway6532 » Tue, Apr 05, 2022, 1:50 AM UTC

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #17

rob74 wrote: post #8

> Everyone should be living much more like the most wealthy people in the most wealthy nations are living now. It should be considered a moral abomination that billions of people are not living in multiple story homes with robotic assistants to control their lights, security, doors, air-conditioning and the temperature of their pools. As with the rest of the article, I'm really not sure if this is irony or hubris? If…

The multistory rather than merely spacious homes and 'pool' with the implication of a private pool, which are both very space inefficient make this seem foolish to me, but I see no issue with billions of people living in cities with easy access to pools, parks, schooling, jobs, and comfortable safe, warm/cool housing and living standards that are science fiction to their immediate ancestors.

>but I see no issue with billions of people living in cities with easy access to pools, parks, schooling, jobs, and comfortable safe, warm/cool housing and living standards that are science fiction to their immediate ancestors

So sand shortages, and water shortages are not a thing?