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Are we running out of resources?

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Re: Are we running out of resources?

#131

Post by Longlius »

volatilecarbon wrote: post #13

There were a lot of words here to simply fall back on the argument that innovation will solve every problem and do so before there is significant suffering. I agree that life will always go on, but this idea that consumption and quality of life can do nothing but rise when it is so dependent on the limited cheap energy and resources that we only learned to exploit a century ago is insanity to me. Our ever increasing…

>Our ever-increasing population

Even the most optimistic projections put the world population peaking well before 2100. Growth has slowed considerably and will likely continue to slow even more as worldwide economic malaise puts further pressure on birth rates (especially since the developing world is urbanizing and urbanization is correlated with a decline in births per woman).

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#132

Post by hackerfromthefu »

jotm wrote: post #110
cableshaft wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As for water, it's everywhere. The vast majority of it is seawater, which humans can't drink because of its salt content. There's still enough freshwater in most places, but the regions where drinkable water scarcity is a problem are growing larger every year. Desalination plants do exist, but it's up to 10x more expensive in most places (in California it's only about 2x more expensive because water is already pret…

Saltwater, meet sun and remineralization. And really, $1 is too expensive? How much do you need? I use ~10m3/month during summer for myself and a small garden. If you use more, well, [thread title]. Smh, talking about resources running out and changing lifestyle. But yeah, those further inland will have more trouble.

I'm interested in what you're saying, I think, I wish it was clear and unambiguous so I could understand it.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#133

Post by alach11 »

jotm wrote: post #110
cableshaft wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As for water, it's everywhere. The vast majority of it is seawater, which humans can't drink because of its salt content. There's still enough freshwater in most places, but the regions where drinkable water scarcity is a problem are growing larger every year. Desalination plants do exist, but it's up to 10x more expensive in most places (in California it's only about 2x more expensive because water is already pret…

Saltwater, meet sun and remineralization. And really, $1 is too expensive? How much do you need? I use ~10m3/month during summer for myself and a small garden. If you use more, well, [thread title]. Smh, talking about resources running out and changing lifestyle. But yeah, those further inland will have more trouble.

You use far more than that. The vast majority of water you “consume” is in the production of the food you eat, especially meat.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#134

Post by beaconstudios »

silicon2401 wrote: post #130
beaconstudios wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

wow, an unironic Malthusian in the wild. Nobody wants you to eat the bugs and live in the pod, friend - the point is to give everybody the best possible standard of living with the resources we have at our disposal. We can attain a pretty great standard for everybody. Not only is population control completely unnecessary, but it requires either mass murder or forced sterilisation. I would prefer that we not do either…

> We can attain a pretty great standard for everybody. By whose definition? Living in a city is not a great quality of life for me. I've done it and hated it compared to living in a suburb. > Not only is population control completely unnecessary, but it requires either mass murder or forced sterilisation. I would prefer that we not do either of those things. Educated people have way fewer children than poor and unedu…

I don't live in a city either, but American suburbs are terrible. I can't imagine living somewhere where I can't nip to the shops 2 minutes down the road (walkable or drivable), where I have to drive long distances to get to the nearest economic hub because it was plonked down in the middle of nowhere, where the main road is basically a small highway. I want walkable human-friendly environments with a mix of high- and low-density accomodation to suit people's preferences.

Number of children is tied to economic status, not education - "poor and uneducated" should just be "poor". That's exactly what I said. A cap on immigration doesn't change the population - but with all your arguments put together, it certainly gives me a vibe of what you actually want.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#135

Post by 8bitsrule »

wiz21c wrote: post #53
pfdietz wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What he is pointing out is the long history of doomsaying being wrong, because it implicitly depends on the assumption that technology has reached its peak and cannot further improve. To get a real doomsaying argument, you have to base it not on details of current technology, but on hard physical limits that no technological improvement can evade. And it's really tough to do that. The population limit for Earth based…

The question is not "if" but "when". Sure renewables are becoming bigger every day but will we have enough of them before getting into climate catastrophe ? That's the question...

Beyond limited fossil fuels and biomass, the only reliable permanent and least toxic source of energy needed to make use of existing resources is the Sun. We might as well get very good at it ASAP. It will take only a few percent of sunlight to supply today's world energy demands.

It's clear that we can't, as the author suggests, "begin to run low of coal in the centuries to come".

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#136

Post by scatters »

verisimi wrote: post #111
mercutio2 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How much wealth do you think would be redistributed if governments confiscated all the assets you think are held be billionaires? There just isn’t that much wealth to be expropriated. It wouldn’t go very far. So no, I don’t think you’ll get broad agreement that confiscating wealth from the very rich is even numerically a viable strategy. Not to mention the fact that historically expropriation isn’t exactly associated…

Its an impossible answer. I don't think it is a viable strategy either. I don't think you are right about how much wealth the rich hold. The middle class would not need to be taxed. The illegitimate ruling class should just have the bulk of their wealth confiscated (at least according to the proposal I am trying to air here). The billionaires would still live well, but the rest of would have a chance to utilise all t…

What assets are actually being sequestered? Isn't billionaires' wealth in paper?

If that paper wealth was confiscated and spent, it would lead to a significant increase in demand, so central banks would have to implement sharply contractionary policy, or see all that newly distributed wealth inflated away. How would that leave anyone better off?

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#137

Post by marcosdumay »

beaconstudios wrote: post #127
marcosdumay wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I personally hate HVACs, but I live in a very comfortable climate. Way too many people live in places where the environment temperatures are outside of the survivable range, or in places that get so hot, it's hard to do anything (often even at night). You just can't fight those by designing you building differently. You can improve the situation a little bit, but not enough.

You'd be surprised. Ancient Iran (a literal desert) kept buildings cool with windcatchers [1] and qanats [2]. I do agree that we have a tendency to set up shop in really extreme places, but that's not necessarily a limiting factor in sustainable design. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windcatcher 2: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qanat#Cooling

Just keep in mind that deserts are the easiest places for artificial temperature control. Anything you try in a desert works, there are no clouds obstructing the Sun, or humidity stopping a passive cooler; every night is cold, every day is hot; there's nothing blocking winds or passive heat emission.

Basically, everything that makes them so damn inhospitable also makes it easy to manage the temperature of a building.

You will have a much harder time on any other place.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#138

Post by hnlmorg »

pbhjpbhj wrote: post #14
hnlmorg wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wood stoves aren't just a relic of old homes. They are becoming increasingly trendy in the UK again now.

They were really, erm, hot over a decade ago. I've always wanted one having grown up in a house (UK) with log fires. But the particulate pollution is really bad and that sadly killed the dream for me. Many areas ("smoke control areas" under the Clean Air Act) don't allow them any more as they were bringing down air quality considerably. https://www.gov.uk/smoke-control-area-rules

There’s a considerable amount of the U.K. that are not inside the smoke control areas.

My friend runs a shop that sells indoor and outdoor wood burners. I picked up a rather nice Belgian made outdoor heater from him too. It’s got a super tall chimney and is surrounded by glass panelling. Looks amazing.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#139

Post by hnlmorg »

marginalia_nu wrote: post #6
namecheapTA wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You never just run out of something one day. Demand goes up, supply goes down, and as you realize that, prices go up. As prices go up, alternatives are used and adjustments are made. As an example, I've heard people say that if Russia shut off the gas supply, Europe would freeze to death. Maybe that's true at first glance, but it ignores that gas is used because it is the best option. But it's not like freezing to de…

Tell that to the inhabitants of Easter Island.

One needs to be very careful when making statements like that because early accounts of Easter Island are varied and subjective. However what is known with greater certainty is that they saw lots of visitors who brought diseases like smallpox and who took substantial numbers of Easter Island natives into slavery.

Re: Are we running out of resources?

#140

Post by lasc4r »

revscat wrote: post #121
pfdietz wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But there are plenty of examples of changes, involving both changes in economic incentives and changes in technology, that greatly reduced pollution. To pretend there's some iron law connecting industry and pollution is simply dishonest.

How so? Saudi Arabia still exists. There is not a single country on Earth who has taken the necessary steps. Hell, the EU is being threatened existentially by a fascist Russia, and they barely even entertain the idea of reducing natural gas imports from the country that is threatening them. So while there may be sporadic examples of pollution reduction, human civilization as a whole is not taking the steps that are n…

Not that your point is wrong, but the EU has plans to cut their gas and oil imports from Russia by two thirds in the next year. And I'm guessing cutting them off entirely in the next few years. It's not feasible to do much more than that I think, they will be making real sacrifices, like implementation of rationing in Germany.
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