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The big automotive semiconductor problem

asianometry.substack.com

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Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#41

Post by sandworm101 »

bayindirh wrote: post #2

From the article: > Mobile phone SOCs integrate a substantial amount of function right onto the chip. Why hasn’t that been the case for the car? Because your mobile phone SoC is not certified for -20/+80 degrees Celsius, copious amount of vibration, error-free operation on many environments (incl. inputs with wrong voltages, shorts, etc.), and have a lifetime of 10+ years with the same performance characteristics. Yo…

>> SoC is not certified for -20/+80 degrees Celsius

That is basically the operating range of the average graphics card these days. Not many people go sub-ambient with their cooling but no graphics card would complain if they did. The actual silicon is perfectly fine with such temperatures. The only real issue is the external cooling rig, a classic engineering problem that any car company shouldn't have a problem solving. A water cooler tied to the vehicle's coolant loop would easily cap the upper temperature range at water boiling points. A car engine has plenty of power available for fans or even air conditioning if necessary. Hide the controller chips somewhere in the passenger compartment and the humans will die of heat before the silicon.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#42

Post by chmod600 »

HeyLaughingBoy wrote: post #37
chmod600 wrote: post #12

What devices are left that are fairly normal (that normal people might interact with in a given week), mechanical or electromechanical, have at least modest complexity, and have no microchips? Locks? Guns? What else? EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use. EDIT2: maybe it should also fit the requirement that it's a current model in production and that yo…

Interesting question. * it's surprising how many dishwashers still use spring-loaded timers to sequence their operations. Although at this point mine is 19 years old so maybe that doesn't count. * Likewise, my iron filter is sequenced by a mechanical timer (run off an electric motor), but my water softener's controller is fully electronic. * A lot of houses still have mechanical mercury thermostats. * The flush valve…

Toilets are a great example, thank you.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#43

Post by chmod600 »

frosted-flakes wrote: post #30
throwaway0a5e wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your typical $400-$500 tank style gas water heater has none of those things. It has a PCB with some analog circuitry to do sparky magic to light the pilot light. A gas/propane heater or stovetop is basically the same thing in a different form factor. Tankless water heaters are necessarily much more fancy.

AKA low-efficiency water heaters.

Can you explain? Are you talking about inline water heaters as the efficient ones?

I have only seen the tank style in the U.S. So it seems to fit, though I guess you are implying those will get replaced by something better.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#44

Post by bayindirh »

sandworm101 wrote: post #41
bayindirh wrote: post #2

From the article: > Mobile phone SOCs integrate a substantial amount of function right onto the chip. Why hasn’t that been the case for the car? Because your mobile phone SoC is not certified for -20/+80 degrees Celsius, copious amount of vibration, error-free operation on many environments (incl. inputs with wrong voltages, shorts, etc.), and have a lifetime of 10+ years with the same performance characteristics. Yo…

>> SoC is not certified for -20/+80 degrees Celsius That is basically the operating range of the average graphics card these days. Not many people go sub-ambient with their cooling but no graphics card would complain if they did. The actual silicon is perfectly fine with such temperatures. The only real issue is the external cooling rig, a classic engineering problem that any car company shouldn't have a problem solv…

I’m not talking about processor temperatures. The temperatures I’m talking about are ambient/enclosure temperatures. So, the board, and all integrated components will be at least that ambient temperature, and they’ll work without any transient errors.

Also this means, no solder joints or any other component won’t act funky.

A transient error in your GPU is a one pixel blip. In an ECU, that’s a power loss event in best case.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#45

Post by pas »

Isinlor wrote: post #14
bayindirh wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The discrete components are designed, tested and verified after a long stint and their specs are frozen. It's a bit like space hardware. You verify an older CPU design can work reliably in space, and certify that processor. Then, you use the same foundation for a decade or so. It's same with automotive industry. You have a well defined and certified stack from Delco, Bosch, Delphi, etc. and you can trust that hardwar…

SpaceX works around that by using consumer grade stuff and just replicating it 3 times. Tesla also managed to handle issues with supply shortages very well. The old practices are just not good enough.

> The old practices are just not good enough.

True, but also think about the path dependence of the old companies. They have withered a lot of ups and downs, they are not the innovators, they are the very slow incrementalists that despite this release a new boring model every few years dressed up as the new best thing ever. (If you have seen a car from one manufacturer you have seen them all from them for the past decades too.)

The whole car industry is a relatively high volume & low margin & medium risk business. (The unit economics is great, but any risk kills profitability, so there was a lot of consolidation and convergence.)

Basically the car industry is like the "iphone industry" except there's some actual price competition and worse fundamentals, plus Apple is relatively young (and Steve set up a pretty high pace, and expectations, plus the fundamentals of the components - eg. semi industry, radios, displays - are really moving forward, whereas internal combustion engines, and the material science of other car components are not).

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#46

Post by aimor »

chmod600 wrote: post #12

What devices are left that are fairly normal (that normal people might interact with in a given week), mechanical or electromechanical, have at least modest complexity, and have no microchips? Locks? Guns? What else? EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use. EDIT2: maybe it should also fit the requirement that it's a current model in production and that yo…

A lot of musical instruments come to mind.

Also many plumbing related things in a house such as faucets, temperature shutoff valves, toilets.

Manual kitchen gadgets are usually pretty simple but still interesting. Peelers and slicers, pasta machines, oil expeller, scales.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#47

Post by takk309 »

TacticalCoder wrote: post #31
chmod600 wrote: post #12

What devices are left that are fairly normal (that normal people might interact with in a given week), mechanical or electromechanical, have at least modest complexity, and have no microchips? Locks? Guns? What else? EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use. EDIT2: maybe it should also fit the requirement that it's a current model in production and that yo…

> EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use. Moka pot / press to do coffee. Lasts ten years easily. All my tools and powertools. Some of them are old, really, really old (I've got my "favorite" screwdriver which is 30 years old). Some are manual, some require electricity. Using daily my mechanical watch and my floorstanding loudspeakers which others mention…

Tools for sure, power and hand. Aside from a voltage regulating circuit most power tools are super simple, make a thing spin to cut other things. I also love using proper hand tools like a plane or hand saw.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#48

Post by dclowd9901 »

> It would be a misconception to look at your standard internal combustion car as a fundamentally mechanical device. Today's cars are some of the most complex electronic systems mankind has ever made.

As a car restorer, mechanic and enthusiast, yes. This is also why bringing a car in for service has ballooned in cost over recent years. Oddly, it’s become remarkably _easy_ to chase down a problem in a car because the systems will just tell you exactly what’s wrong. Now it’s just a huge time sink to actually fix the problem because it’s probably buried deep in the gubbins of the car and the parts are very costly.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#49

Post by pas »

chmod600 wrote: post #12

What devices are left that are fairly normal (that normal people might interact with in a given week), mechanical or electromechanical, have at least modest complexity, and have no microchips? Locks? Guns? What else? EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use. EDIT2: maybe it should also fit the requirement that it's a current model in production and that yo…

I'm still mesmerized by microwave ovens. Sure, all of them now come with a chip, but that part is guaranteed 100% shit (I mean who the fuck designs these unergonomic monsters anyway!?)

But the magnetron in them is complex, has to be machined to a high precision, yet they are a pretty old piece of completely analog technology.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#50

Post by dclowd9901 »

Retric wrote: post #11
dylan604 wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The space shuttle used a hardened 386 (or something similar) that cost a bazillion dollars. The drone currently on Mars used commidity off the shelf chips (snapdragon IIRC). The harsh conditions thing is not something to laugh at, but I also think we might have over-engineered somethings a bit.

The surface of Mars being further from the sun and inside an atmosphere has vastly fewer issues with radiation.

Also, human lives aren’t at stake if things go awry.
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