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The big automotive semiconductor problem

asianometry.substack.com

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Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#31

What devices are left that are fairly normal (that normal people might interact with in a given week), mechanical or electromechanical, have at least modest complexity, and have no microchips? Locks? Guns? What else? EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use. EDIT2: maybe it should also fit the requirement that it's a current model in production and that yo…

> EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use.

Moka pot / press to do coffee. Lasts ten years easily.

All my tools and powertools. Some of them are old, really, really old (I've got my "favorite" screwdriver which is 30 years old). Some are manual, some require electricity.

Using daily my mechanical watch and my floorstanding loudspeakers which others mentioned. The loudspeakers are hooked to an amp to DAC to computer, so the "chain" is not exactly microchip free though.

EDIT: also various types of chimneys and stoves are still microchips free. Although there's a move towards freaking "smart" pellets stove that require electricity, WiFi, that are noisy but, hey, they're programmable. Thanks but no thanks. Good old chimney for me.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#32

> Automakers found that mechanical, hydraulic or pneumatic controls failed to achieve enough accuracy and consistency over each vehicle's usage life to meet these emissions tests. This was especially the case as the car aged. Decades ago, I owned an old Alfa Romeo that incorporated a complicated cam system to control the oxygen ratio to the fuel injection system. More complex than your typical 1-dimensional function…

Every car engine loses gradually power with wear. Top gear famously showed this multiple times with their older car episodes. Usually it was in 20-30% range.

Basically new car is a 100% system and from first kilometer / month of ageing and exposition to elements various items go down the hill. Each car type had its own set of reasons for that, but result was +-same.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#33
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The surface of Mars being further from the sun and inside an atmosphere has vastly fewer issues with radiation.

We can't teleport something from one atmosphere to another, though. It's a long trip.

That’s a risk, but the chip is off for the trip which makes a significant difference. Fail safe is much easier if you can run diagnostics without needing the system to be doing it’s job.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#34
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The surface of Mars being further from the sun and inside an atmosphere has vastly fewer issues with radiation.

In both cases you're well protected against the solar wind by distance and atmosphere in the case of the Mars rover and by the Van Allen belts in the case of the Space Shuttle. But both still have to worry about cosmic rays. Mars's thin atmosphere helps a bit with that but not nearly as much as you'd like. EDIT: I suspect a lot of what lets you use Snapdragons in the rover is the idea of making error resistant system…

That’s not really accurate the sun causes real issues in LEO. See chapter 2 starting on page 9 here:

https://commons.erau.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1101&co...

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#35
post #8

From the article: > Mobile phone SOCs integrate a substantial amount of function right onto the chip. Why hasn’t that been the case for the car? Because your mobile phone SoC is not certified for -20/+80 degrees Celsius, copious amount of vibration, error-free operation on many environments (incl. inputs with wrong voltages, shorts, etc.), and have a lifetime of 10+ years with the same performance characteristics. Yo…

They do however use SoCs for HMI/head-units/carputers now however. The bigger reason is just the nature of automotive development. Every part is developed by a specced or sourced by different teams and outsourced to a different Tier 1/2/3. Things are designed to be modular, so if you pick Option A for something, it might use ECU A, and if you pick Option B, they might pack a whole different ECU B. Also, every ECU is…

SoCs in head-units would still be automotive qualified variants (temperature grade, etc).

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#36

What devices are left that are fairly normal (that normal people might interact with in a given week), mechanical or electromechanical, have at least modest complexity, and have no microchips? Locks? Guns? What else? EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use. EDIT2: maybe it should also fit the requirement that it's a current model in production and that yo…

Push lawnmowers, dirtbikes, or chainsaws typically do not have microchips, and they are all quite complex. Also, old elevators often had purely relay logic, and I've heard that it is often more cost-effective to repair old elevators than to replace them outright, so if you live in a really old building the elevator might still be click-clacking away. Then there are washing machines and dryers. Most new models are stu…

"dirtbikes, or chainsaws typically do not have microchips"

Interesting, good examples.

"The wetter the clothes, the more power the heating coils will draw through the resistor, which lowers the voltage of the power the timer motor receives, slowing it down. Once the clothes start getting dry, the voltage goes back up and the timer speeds up again."

Sounds like this kind of ingenuity is on its way out, though. I expect the vast majority of washers/dryers have semiconductors in today.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#37

What devices are left that are fairly normal (that normal people might interact with in a given week), mechanical or electromechanical, have at least modest complexity, and have no microchips? Locks? Guns? What else? EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use. EDIT2: maybe it should also fit the requirement that it's a current model in production and that yo…

Interesting question.

* it's surprising how many dishwashers still use spring-loaded timers to sequence their operations. Although at this point mine is 19 years old so maybe that doesn't count.

* Likewise, my iron filter is sequenced by a mechanical timer (run off an electric motor), but my water softener's controller is fully electronic.

* A lot of houses still have mechanical mercury thermostats.

* The flush valve in your toilet tank is completely mechanical and surprisingly complex. Once you take it completely apart you realize that there's more to it than just a float that shuts off a valve.

* I'm always amazed by the centrifugal clutches in weed whackers and small gas-powered lawn appliances.

Should be more things I can come up with...

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#38
post #27

What devices are left that are fairly normal (that normal people might interact with in a given week), mechanical or electromechanical, have at least modest complexity, and have no microchips? Locks? Guns? What else? EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use. EDIT2: maybe it should also fit the requirement that it's a current model in production and that yo…

Can opener Stapler Loud-speakers Shop vac

"Loud speaker" surprises me. Are you sure they don't use semiconductors for amplification?

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#39
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The discrete components are designed, tested and verified after a long stint and their specs are frozen. It's a bit like space hardware. You verify an older CPU design can work reliably in space, and certify that processor. Then, you use the same foundation for a decade or so. It's same with automotive industry. You have a well defined and certified stack from Delco, Bosch, Delphi, etc. and you can trust that hardwar…

To add to that, some of these features are extremely specialized, and for each feature, 1-2 of the big players might have a huge technical advantage and economies of scale in production and in supplying. This leads to higher barrier to entry and not enough margin for other players to replicate the feature.

Funny, this sounds exactly like why microservices have an advantage over monoliths in big organizations.

Re: The big automotive semiconductor problem

#40

What devices are left that are fairly normal (that normal people might interact with in a given week), mechanical or electromechanical, have at least modest complexity, and have no microchips? Locks? Guns? What else? EDIT: perhaps an extra requirement that it's fairly durable, i.e. easily lasts ten years of normal use. EDIT2: maybe it should also fit the requirement that it's a current model in production and that yo…

Push lawnmowers, dirtbikes, or chainsaws typically do not have microchips, and they are all quite complex. Also, old elevators often had purely relay logic, and I've heard that it is often more cost-effective to repair old elevators than to replace them outright, so if you live in a really old building the elevator might still be click-clacking away. Then there are washing machines and dryers. Most new models are stu…

> Push lawnmowers, dirtbikes, or chainsaws typically do not have microchips, and they are all quite complex.

Is this still the case for the newer battery electric variants of these tools? The battery itself will have microchips for the BMS, and if those tools are using BLDC motors, those motors will contain a controller likely implemented with microchips.

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