Impulse Space is betting on a future where launch is cheap

So long as humanity is limited to throwing high velocity gas oot the back of rockets to get around the solar system, we’ll be limited by access to volatile material. Spacex is betting on CH4 and oxygen, nuclear rocket designs (NERVA) used hydrogen, although they could use pretty much anything. Earth is in a peculiar position such that the delta V of getting to orbit will also get you to anywhere else in the solar system fairly quickly.

So if launch to LEO is cheap, fuel will be a large proportion of cargo imo. Note solar sails and some other propulsionless designs negate this requirement.

For another view on how this will change things, consider the delta-V map of the Solar System [1]. As an example you need 45km/s to reach Saturn, roughly 20% of that is just spent getting to Low Earth Orbit.

Now consider the long-term trend in the payload cost (by weight) of getting to LEO [2]. This is why people such as myself are so bullish on spaceX (despite quite reasonable qualms about Elon Musk as a person). The impact this has had and will continue to have on reducing this number cannot be overstated.

But all of this are still interim steps and we can potentially get the payload to LEO cost under $10/kg. If you want to go down the rabbit hole of this, I strongly recommend Isaac Arthur's Upward Bound series [3], I consider the ultimate end to this to be Orbital Rings [4].

Even if you don't believe there's a reason for humans to go to space en masse (which I disagree with), this will greatly impact life on earth, for example with space-based solar power collectors.

[1]: https://deltavmap.github.io/?system=Solar&origin=Earth&desti...

[2]: https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/6.htm

[3]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JgxkilF5XUM&list=PLIIOUpOge0...

[4]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LMbI6sk-62E

They are 100% at the mercy of SpaceX accepting their payloads. If SpaceX decides to create an in-house competitor, they are purely and simply screwed. And SpaceX will create an in-house competitor if Impulse Space is profitable.

So they are also betting on either anti-monopoly legislation being set-up (SpaceX is a monopoly because no other launcher can match their pricing), or that a SpaceX competitor emerges (which could easily be a decade out).

Yeah, maybe. But those in the old guard are used to building expensive, one-off things. I'll agree they can have better margins on what they already do.

SpaceX benefit most from stuff which can be mass-produced. Customers who have use-cases which can be massproduced, will benefit the most from SpaceX.

Another commenter mentioned on the perils of that too - SpaceX owns the ride, so they hold the keys to the Kingdom.

There are alternate sources of propellant in the solar system. Lifting it out of Earths gravity well is relatively expensive. But once you have enough of it, you could start transporting propellant from elsewhere in the solar system and start stockpiling it in strategic orbits around various objects in the solar system. Once you can do that, you'd minimize the launch weight from earth to be able to get to a LEO fueling point and use the weight savings for more interesting cargo.

One industry that could emerge quickly is that of asteroid mining. There are plenty of interesting asteroids with precious metals, water, and other resources. Right now the cost of getting to these asteroids, mining them, and transporting the mined goods back is so expensive in delta-v that it has not been done yet despite several companies having been active planning for this for quite some time.

So, SpaceX getting their star ship going might be a big deal.That enables us getting stuff into space and that enables us bootstrapping mining and construction activity in orbit. Plenty of science fiction books have been written on this. There's no shortage of ideas here.