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I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea (2020)

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Re: I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea (2020)

#321

Post by abirch »

fragmede wrote: post #226
abirch wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your comment about the wrong conclusion. Google didn't have a monetization plan, it launched in 1998 and didn't do adwords(ads) until 2000. It's always better to have positive cashflow, however, enough capital lets you have more runway. At the end of the day you do need someone who will pay. Not that I dislike attorneys but they could have been a client. If you can show that a doctor didn't prescribe the…

It's not 1998 anymore is the thing. It's obviously better to have positive cash flow but unless you come up with something that is that huge of a hit, in a market where people both understand your product, but also there aren't entrenched competitors to squash you, there's a lot of hard work to get to a place where your product is worth something your customers. Which is expensive, in both time and money. Both of whi…

You're right that doing a startup is expensive especially when you look at opportunity costs. Google was going up against Microsoft that was killing off competitors to the point it was on the Simpsons. There are many factors and one of them can be luck. I respect anyone who does a start up because it's easy to be a naysayer. I wouldn't have invested in GlacierMD but I wouldn't have invested in SnapChat because I still don't get it.

One thing I did notice is that he was the sole founder. This is the number one mistake according to Paul Graham: http://www.paulgraham.com/startupmistakes.html oddly enough I'm interviewing for a position that is using the same inputs as the OP but with slightly different outputs and we have a corporate buyer lined up.

Re: I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea (2020)

#323

Post by snarf21 »

klabb3 wrote: post #185
snarf21 wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, in this case, it was the "brilliant" idea they thought it was. At first, they thought end users would pay but never even stopped to think about what they would pay to be recommended Aleve over Advil, (probably $0.00). Secondly, they thought Drs (providers) would be key but then were somehow dumb founded that they wouldn't pay for this service because it doesn't really solve a problem they have in the current fe…

Yeah, not disagreeing. But the way I interpret the conclusion of this story, is that this wasn't a particularly startup friendly idea. I'm sure it's somewhat salvagable with the right strategy. My greater point is that ideas set the boundaries for what's possible in execution, which in turn means ideas are critical. If they were unimportant a shit idea would have little impact on the outcome, which is clearly not tru…

That's fair. The place most people are coming from when they start a business is usually that their idea is "brilliant" or "world-changing". Some ideas are better than others and most aren't as good as people think they are. Yet, even if the idea is actually brilliant, it doesn't matter at all without execution. Even the brilliant ideas will eventually change quite a lot during the execution of product / market fit to find those first few customers who will actually pay you money. People would be best served by convincing the first customer to buy something that actually doesn't even work and is just a webflow of what could be. Ask them what they want changed and promise to do that and then and only then starting making what they have agreed to buy.

Yes, my original post was not verbose, but I think people are better served by hanging signs all over their start-up that say what I wrote. Ideas are fun, ideas are hopeful, ideas can be magic, ideas can fill your heart but success comes from out-working everyone else. I have several truly great company ideas but I've never started them because I know in my heart that I don't want to go do all the work required to make it success.

Re: I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea (2020)

#324

Post by 2143 »

BoiledCabbage wrote: post #199
kdkirsch wrote: post #191

I’m a physician. I really appreciate Tom’s enthusiasm, but I think that enthusiasm led him to overestimate the significance of the problem. Moreover he didn’t really understand for whom he was building this product. At first he thought it would be a consumer product. But he realized that consumers would not pay/subscribe and later learned that advertising wouldn’t work. Next he thought doctors would pay because “Doct…

I agree. And what Tom didn't realize is that Doctors aren't financially incetivized to give better healthcare. There is no money in it for them. If anything, return visits because of a partial prior resolution make more money. Now clearly I'm not saying that doctors try to give bad diagnoses for profit (because they don't). But beyond a certain minimum bar, and on a purely financial basis, improving diagnostics or pr…

> If anything, return visits because of a partial prior resolution make more money.

I don't think any doctor deliberately prolongs the illness of their patients to keep the money flow coming.

Do you have any evidence to back up what you said (other than a flawed game-theory hypothesis)?

Re: I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea (2020)

#325

Post by mtnGoat »

As someone who worked in healthcare, this outcome is not unexpected.

My experience in that industry taught me to never go to a hospital, most of the staff don’t care about patient care at all. It’s just another workplace and everyone is worried about keeping their job, internal politics or money. Patients always seemed to come last. So why would they be interested in better outcomes by using a software? They aren’t really incentivized to do better in any way. Aside from gaming government requirements, wrapped around patient care, to get more money, only then do they care about outcome.

Yes I’m jaded, certainly won’t go back.

Re: I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea (2020)

#326

Post by beaconstudios »

smnrchrds wrote: post #225
kdkirsch wrote: post #191

I’m a physician. I really appreciate Tom’s enthusiasm, but I think that enthusiasm led him to overestimate the significance of the problem. Moreover he didn’t really understand for whom he was building this product. At first he thought it would be a consumer product. But he realized that consumers would not pay/subscribe and later learned that advertising wouldn’t work. Next he thought doctors would pay because “Doct…

If the COVID-19 pandemic has taught me anything about science, it's that if you do a "meta-analysis" without reading each paper carefully and critically, you can end up proving anything regardless of its veracity. You cannot replace domain-expert scientists spending huge amounts of time painstakingly going over every detail of many papers to weed out mistakes and fraud in order to write a meta-analysis, with a comput…

I think the generalised lesson to be learned is that in reducing complexity (and all modelling requires reducing complexity), you get to make decisions about which bits of data are cut out, and this is a decision that can introduce bias. We can't just blindly trust reductions, especially in areas where there are competing interests. This is why transparency is so important! If I can reproduce your methodology, I can critique it for bias.

Re: I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea (2020)

#327

Post by scrubs »

I loved story. And you wanna know what? I like people with a pulse. The guy tried something out. He took a chance. He tried to make his own luck. And you co-re-discovered some foundational truths along the way that the experience has made more immediate and penetrating for him. Which helps us/me because he can convey it with conviction.

I wanted to riff of a couple of points:

'“Yeah okay that’s great but nobody cares about this math crap. You need doctors.” Goddamnit he was right. If nobody could be bothered with the math, then I was no better than Gwyneth Paltrow hawking vagina eggs. To build trust I needed to get endorsements from trustworthy people.'

This slightly miscommunicates how it works; it's even more annoying. True you need the people usually first. But one day it will come down to math/science. And if you don't have that right the same people will roll their eyes at that too even if they can't spell math.

And "Occasionally I like to disconnect from the IV drip of internet pseudoknowledge and learn stuff from books. I know, it’s weird—maybe even a bit hipster. But recently I read Wharton’s introductory marketing textbook, Strategic Marketing Management."

I'm sending this in from the engineering cheerleading club: Never apologize or down play reading (a book) or writing. It's good! The other side doesn't get it? That's why you need a pulse so not to care about such things.

In the alternative? Get a 12-pack and re-watch the 'Breakfast Club' with the other side. In the end we all play more than one roles and we all could use help on the way.

Re: I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea (2020)

#328

Post by davidsawyer »

renewiltord wrote: post #21

Posted many times. In case you haven't seen it, The Mom Test is great. And the audiobook is good too.

The audiobook is read by the Rob Fitzpatrick, the author, and he delivers things really casually and conversationally. Really enjoyed it.

Re: I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea (2020)

#329

Post by gehwartzen »

jstummbillig wrote: post #306
BoiledCabbage wrote: post #199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. And what Tom didn't realize is that Doctors aren't financially incetivized to give better healthcare. There is no money in it for them. If anything, return visits because of a partial prior resolution make more money. Now clearly I'm not saying that doctors try to give bad diagnoses for profit (because they don't). But beyond a certain minimum bar, and on a purely financial basis, improving diagnostics or pr…

> If anything, return visits because of a partial prior resolution make more money. I don't know what system you are referring to, but in the EU, for common physician services, this is (fortunately) not how it works. Physicians are by and large being paid per case, not per visit. In Germany a case is being defined as the same patient visiting the same physician in the same quarter of the year ( https://www.kbv.de/too…

I'm assuming the US as that is the case here. Each visit is billed for individually. By the case is certainly a much better model.

Re: I wasted $40k on a fantastic startup idea (2020)

#330

Post by achillesheels »

JAlexoid wrote: post #264
achillesheels wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? Google is a product of luck and not centuries of the willfully successful extensions of men, e.g. Leland Stanford, on this continent? What, in your estimation, can be controlled then?

If Google wasn't a result of massive amount of lucky circumstances, beyond the control of its founders - you'd be able to launch a successful competitor to Google right now and become a billionaire in a few years.

It's actually because Google had predetermined intrinsic value to human beings in filtering through the world wide web which demonstrates one cannot simply launch a competitor without offering substantially significant more value in achieving the same objective.
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