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Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

acesounderglass.com

51–60 of 68 posts

Re: Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

#51
post #44

I find some of this author's arguments... epistemically illegible. For instance, she criticizes James Scott's "Against the Grain" for using a different definition of 'state' than the first one she found on wikipedia, but it is unclear why this is a bad thing. In fact, Scott himself notes that there are many competing definitions of state that are all imperfect in his context; and that ultimately the choice of one or…

(the author is a woman: https://acesounderglass.com/about-me-2/ )

Oops. Thank you. I need to be more careful.

Re: Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

#52
> Finally I worked my way up to “first walled, territorial state”. Not thinking super hard, I googled “first walled city”, and got a date 3000 years before the one Scott cites. Not a big deal, he specified state, not walls. What I can google to find that out? “Earliest state”, obviously, and the first google hit does match Scott’s timing, but… what made something a state, and how can we assess those traits from archeological records? I checked, and nowhere in the preface, introduction, or first three chapters was “state” defined. No work can define every term it uses, but this is a pretty important one for a book whose full title is Against the Grain: A Deep History of the Earliest States.

Isn't this kind of spiral going to appear when you analyze almost any claim? It's where skepticism comes from. When you get down to it it's very hard to say a claim is truly "epistemically legible" outside math and the hard sciences (and even there there are dissenters).

And if someone does manage to write a history that's relatively epistemically legible it's going to be boring as hell. All histories contain narratives and all historical narratives are seriously flawed. What saves history (besides the entertainment value) is that some narratives are better than others. We can move closer to the truth through discovery and analysis of information. At the end, though, we're still left with seriously flawed narratives, just less flawed than the previous ones if history as a discipline is functioning.

Re: Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

#53
post #52

> Finally I worked my way up to “first walled, territorial state”. Not thinking super hard, I googled “first walled city”, and got a date 3000 years before the one Scott cites. Not a big deal, he specified state, not walls. What I can google to find that out? “Earliest state”, obviously, and the first google hit does match Scott’s timing, but… what made something a state, and how can we assess those traits from arche…

Consider the difference between modern Egyptology wrt the history of the pyramids and the "history" of scientology, Xenu, and alien spirit volcanoes.

The first is far more epistemically legible, the second is pure ideological fantasy (or sci-fi, considering the author. )

There's a much smaller gulf between Principia Mathematica and the history of Egypt - differences in recorded historical facts allow for differing interpretation but the possibilities are constrained and have a huge amount of overlap with hard science - we can be almost as sure that Tutankhamen was a real king as that Abraham Lincoln was president of the US, and the certainty of both having been real probably exceeds five 9's. The probability of Scientology being real, as she is wrote, is probably below 0.1e-100.

From a Bayesian perspective, you can be 100% certain of things like your own subjective experience, and from there you can presume certainty for things whose probability or improbability exceed some threshold - you might never know if Tutankhamen was a nice guy or generally a prick, but his existence is founded within enough other certainties that you can (probably) assign that fact the moniker of "100% real" with great success. The same with "Xenu is cult nonsense."

Re: Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

#54
post #52

> Finally I worked my way up to “first walled, territorial state”. Not thinking super hard, I googled “first walled city”, and got a date 3000 years before the one Scott cites. Not a big deal, he specified state, not walls. What I can google to find that out? “Earliest state”, obviously, and the first google hit does match Scott’s timing, but… what made something a state, and how can we assess those traits from arche…

Consider the difference between modern Egyptology wrt the history of the pyramids and the "history" of scientology, Xenu, and alien spirit volcanoes. The first is far more epistemically legible, the second is pure ideological fantasy (or sci-fi, considering the author. ) There's a much smaller gulf between Principia Mathematica and the history of Egypt - differences in recorded historical facts allow for differing in…

If we're talking about a list of facts concerning Egypt then I'd agree. But history isn't a list of facts. If it was it would be unreadable. All histories have a narrative (and usually other things, like a political philosophy and a sense of morality). Against the Grain is an obvious example of that. The author here is trying to reduce Against the Grain to a list of verifiable facts and finds that this is very hard.

Religions are also not lists of facts. Most sophisticated believers (and I assume this applies to Scientologists) have a partly metaphorical understanding of their religion.

If we take some extremely far-fetched history, let's say David Irving's Holocaust denial, I would say that (unfortunately) the gap between Against the Grain and Irving is much smaller than the gap between either history and Principia.

Re: Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

#55
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider the difference between modern Egyptology wrt the history of the pyramids and the "history" of scientology, Xenu, and alien spirit volcanoes. The first is far more epistemically legible, the second is pure ideological fantasy (or sci-fi, considering the author. ) There's a much smaller gulf between Principia Mathematica and the history of Egypt - differences in recorded historical facts allow for differing in…

If we're talking about a list of facts concerning Egypt then I'd agree. But history isn't a list of facts. If it was it would be unreadable. All histories have a narrative (and usually other things, like a political philosophy and a sense of morality). Against the Grain is an obvious example of that. The author here is trying to reduce Against the Grain to a list of verifiable facts and finds that this is very hard.…

I think we need to define history - you seem to be operating from the definition as a narrative anchored to a list of facts, but I consider history to be the collection of facts of themselves, from which narratives can be derived. If the narrative is bounded by the limits of the facts (dates, correlated recording, carbon dating, artifacts, etc.) then the resulting narrative lacks the potential for inaccuracies. If history is instead a narrative, into which facts are selectively slotted, the uncertainty rapidly reaches a point at which interpretation and belief factor into the history as much or more than dry facts.

I think the trick is requiring that the fundamental narrative of a given history be bounded by science (itself a narrative) in the sense that things are left unknown and unknowable where evidence is lacking or insufficient.

Egyptology is a non scientific, dogmatic narrative into which facts and conclusions are selectively slotted. The "prestige" resulting from British imperialists fetishizing the subject created a mythos of Egypt as some primal, fundamental expression of the beginning of civilization. This mythos is tended and cultivated in modern times by Egyptians and their cultural elites, with their interpretation of history resulting in notoriously poor handling of any science-based revision.

So there is dogmatic and narrative history, and scientific history. Things like the archeology of Clovis culture result in dry, but scientific history. Few people or institutions will encounter perverse incentives in that field. Egyptian heritage and tourism necessitate cooperation with institutions and corrupting outside influences that derogate the resulting narrative.

In the case of religion, there's a great deal of similarity and overlap with histories of the dogmatic sort and both suffer from the issue of the narrative selecting for ideologically convenient facts, instead of a self limiting construction founded in scientific principle.

The worst part is that science itself can be considered an ideology as dogmatic and fraught with perverse incentives as any other story we attach to dry lists of facts. The difference is in the repeatability of direct consequences - we can trust carbon dating, but educated guessing about culture based on parchment fragments that result in a story about thousands of people at a particular point in time has to be weighted similarly to religion or mythology in terms of factuality.

If you choose to believe in science, then everything becomes lists of facts, whether rigorously repeatable tests like carbon dating, or assertions about the beliefs and actions of people thousands of years ago - or about modern cohabitants of this existence. A Bayesian perspective on the deconstructed narratives as lists of facts gives us a methodology to navigate narratives rationally.

The difficulty is in assigning probabilities to the authenticity of a given fact, so - Lincoln 100% existed, Xenu 100% did not.

The modern narrative of Egyptian history (my own understanding of it) is probably 85% scientific or accurate, and the questionable bits are the ones that directly benefit the individuals or institutions that stand to benefit from corrupted or perverse incentives.

Holocaust denial, like flat earth and Bigfoot, is inherently anti-bayesian and requires wilfully abandoning easily verifiable dry facts and rigorously scientific information that is trivially accessible. To believe in such stuff you have to embrace an extreme of skepticism that makes navigating reality impractical at best, either believing everything from a particular authority or rejecting everything outside one's own direct experience.

It's an interesting problem, and I'd like to see a Bayesian history of humanity some day, with a rigorously bounded and annotated set of probabilities attached to every part of the narrative portion of historical stories. Maybe gpt-3 or future transformer models could eke out such a system.

Re: Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

#56
post #6

An excellent piece of terminology. Closely related to the concept of "not even wrong", I think?

I had to google that phrase and found that it’s slang for unfalsifiable. Based on that, I would agree with you.

In addition, it sounds like Epistemic Legibility differs [from Falsifiability] by not necessarily requiring an empirical test to refute one or more claims.

Re: Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

#57

I didn't see it mentioned, I think I "epistemic literacy" is the other side of the coin. I see examples of people demanding citations for reasoning that is part of a work, of people just not understanding something, or of only really being able to blindly follow based on province or authority without trying to reconcile back to what they know. If there is going to be a standard for legibility, there should be one for…

2 + 2 = 4 [citation needed]

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=2%2B2

Re: Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

#58
To draw a comparison with software development: how much test coverage does this argument have? And do those tests genuinely handle most expected inputs/outputs and demonstrate correctness?

Similarly, recursively: do the claims that the argument relies upon also have good test coverage?

And, extrapolating beyond the article: how can we identify the flaws with minimal effort and help the authors to correct those (or fork improved arguments and build support for those when they refuse to)?

Re: Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

#59
I think this is a valuable perspective, but also is a bit narrowly focused.

It's not the single argument/book/article or whatever, you need an ecosystem of tools, institutions, datasources that work towards truth. I think this is probably what they are building towards, but felt it wasn't given enough emphasis.

One of the examples is acoup, citing ancient historians, yet one of regular points is that those ancient historians, weren't really historians as such and are often making an argument and making stuff up to fit whatever they were trying to argue for at the time. So it's naturally quickly recursive, if you are citing people who are hard to argue with.

Re: Epistemic legibility: being easy to argue with is a virtue

#60

I didn't see it mentioned, I think I "epistemic literacy" is the other side of the coin. I see examples of people demanding citations for reasoning that is part of a work, of people just not understanding something, or of only really being able to blindly follow based on province or authority without trying to reconcile back to what they know. If there is going to be a standard for legibility, there should be one for…

Early in college I got the sense from some professors (likely English professors) that I, a student, couldn't be trusted to just state something in a paper. Instead, I was supposed to find an instance of someone else writing that same idea somewhere and quote and cite them. I was pretty relieved when I got to Philosophy, where no one gave a damn about anything but the argument.

They were teaching you a scientific writing mindset. Philosophy is different in this regard, as it is the science of rational thought.
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