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Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

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Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#111

Post by robryan »

matwood wrote: post #98
kenjackson wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. The biggest feature that people wanted, that they didn't deliver on was a bigger screen -- and screens on smartphones are pretty important. The iPhone4s is a great device. The expectation though of a lighter, thinner, larger screen iPhone5 with crazy deep Facebook integration throughout made the announcement rather blah. This is probably the first time I felt like Apple did a poor job controlling th…

The biggest feature that people wanted, that they didn't deliver on was a bigger screen Do people really want this? If they can go edge to edge in the current dimensions, that's fine. But, if they have to make the dimensions bigger it doesn't excite me. I want a pocket sized device that I can easily text on with 1 hand. I imagine women who have smaller hands would also prefer the current size phone over some of the g…

Yeah I don't particularly want a bugger screen, it's the same thing that happened to net books, the screen size was a design choice but kept getting bigger until it was running into regular laptops again.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#112

Post by prawn »

matthew-wegner wrote: post #109
prawn wrote: post #12

Saw the common reaction to the iPhone 5 disappointment summarised loosely as: "If this new product looks like the last one, how will people tell that I'm superior to them?"

I think the identical appearance is calculated. The only way you'll be able to show off your new phone is by actually using Siri.

That is a very insightful comment that I have not yet seen in any discussion. Great point.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#113

Post by kenjackson »

matwood wrote: post #98
kenjackson wrote: post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think so. The biggest feature that people wanted, that they didn't deliver on was a bigger screen -- and screens on smartphones are pretty important. The iPhone4s is a great device. The expectation though of a lighter, thinner, larger screen iPhone5 with crazy deep Facebook integration throughout made the announcement rather blah. This is probably the first time I felt like Apple did a poor job controlling th…

The biggest feature that people wanted, that they didn't deliver on was a bigger screen Do people really want this? If they can go edge to edge in the current dimensions, that's fine. But, if they have to make the dimensions bigger it doesn't excite me. I want a pocket sized device that I can easily text on with 1 hand. I imagine women who have smaller hands would also prefer the current size phone over some of the g…

Do people really want this?

Yes.

Does everyone want it? Of course not. The edge to edge screen is what was in the rumor mill. A 4" screen would not change the dimensions of the phone in this case.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#114

Post by andrew1 »

chollida1 wrote: post #56
jeswin wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Any sources for this?

I don't know about the spreading of rumours, but alot of funds short apple on the day of product announcements as their stock almost always goes down during the announcements. It's pretty much free money.

In fairness, that sounds apocryphal. If it were really common then there would be no money in doing it because the market would have factored in days before the event the fact that the price were going to fall.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#115

Post by mnutt »

robryan wrote: post #110
mikeash wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If this exact same phone had come out with the name "iPhone 5", and maybe a different case, people would be praising it to the heavens. People are weird.

True, I had a friend debating whether to get one. I asked him, if they had labeled it a 5 would you feel the same way, what missing features are you after exactly? Turns out it pretty much was just the branding.

Perhaps part of it is this: I have an iPhone 3GS and didn't upgrade to an iPhone 4 when it came out because I was locked into my contract. By the time my contract ended, the 4 was 8 months old and I decided to hold off on upgrading until the 5 came out.

By releasing a 4s, Apple is most likely signaling that there will be a radically new phone released soon. (less than a year) I'm going to get a 4s (the new features are great and I can't really wait 6 months) but I probably won't ever actually get the 5 due to carrier lock-in.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#116

Post by zhoutong »

chugger wrote: post #30
achompas wrote: post #19

Is anyone really shocked? Here, I'll write out the tech media "design pattern" for a new Apple product. 1. Hype up killer pie-in-the-sky feature that makes zero economic sense for Apple (see: retina iPad, 4G iPhone with larger screen). Traffic spikes. 2. As launch approaches, use "inside sources" to mock up designs (Macrumors's "we think the 5 will look like this"). Report on supply chain behavior, leaked case design…

Most of these rumors are started by hedge funds with short positions in Apple. 1) Spread rumors about a product 2) Watch stock price go up 3) Wait for the actual product announcement 4) Short sale 5) Profit$$$ it happens everyday.

Why they watch the price to go up for short sale opportunity instead of just buying at the lower price?

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#117

Post by achompas »

DannoHung wrote: post #107
cletus wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly what happens. The iPad 3 was the most egregious example I've seen of this yet. John Gruber said it made sense for the iPad to be on a September release schedule (which actually makes no sense) based on no information whatsoever. What followed was how the iPad 3 was coming, it had a retina display, the usual unverifiable tales from the supply chain, etc. In the end, unnamed sources said Apple decided t…

> John Gruber said it made sense for the iPad to be on a September release schedule (which actually makes no sense) based on no information whatsoever. The iPad, being a contract-less decision, makes a lot of sense as a Christmas purchase. The stuff about retina displays I think was based on the UltraHD icons and shit found in Lion. I think at least some of the thinking came from the idea that Apple wanted to do a su…

Since this was before the iPhone 4S was shifted from early summer, it made more sense a few months ago.

More sense than zero isn't significantly different from zero.

I said this a few months ago, and I stand by it now: there was no reason for Apple to refresh a product that had 4-week delivery times. They couldn't stock iPad 2s in Apple Stores, so it made zero economic sense to refresh only 6-8 months later.

(I think this was cletus's point, and FWIW I agree with it 100%)

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#118

Post by achompas »

juiceandjuice wrote: post #71
achompas wrote: post #19

Is anyone really shocked? Here, I'll write out the tech media "design pattern" for a new Apple product. 1. Hype up killer pie-in-the-sky feature that makes zero economic sense for Apple (see: retina iPad, 4G iPhone with larger screen). Traffic spikes. 2. As launch approaches, use "inside sources" to mock up designs (Macrumors's "we think the 5 will look like this"). Report on supply chain behavior, leaked case design…

More importantly is why didn't it come out sooner, like in June? My guess is that the soonest it would have came out is actually came out is August 10, six months after the iPhone 4 CDMA, and probably because a contract between Apple and Verizon to not let Sprint in on the action quite yet, especially since the iPhone 4 could run on Sprint the entire time. Furthermore the white iPhone 4 didn't really come out until A…

More importantly is why didn't it come out sooner

I think the simple answer is "they wanted to release iOS 5 with the new phone." Rumors point to a lot of delays in iOS 5 development.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#119

Post by somebear »

zhoutong wrote: post #116
chugger wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of these rumors are started by hedge funds with short positions in Apple. 1) Spread rumors about a product 2) Watch stock price go up 3) Wait for the actual product announcement 4) Short sale 5) Profit$$$ it happens everyday.

Why they watch the price to go up for short sale opportunity instead of just buying at the lower price?

Because the profit comes over a shorter period, i.e. shorting stock from the 3rd to the 5th. If they just bought at the lower price after the announcement they would have to wait for a longer period before they would gain the same profit as through shorting the stock.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#120

Post by Steko »

mnutt wrote: post #115
robryan wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

True, I had a friend debating whether to get one. I asked him, if they had labeled it a 5 would you feel the same way, what missing features are you after exactly? Turns out it pretty much was just the branding.

Perhaps part of it is this: I have an iPhone 3GS and didn't upgrade to an iPhone 4 when it came out because I was locked into my contract. By the time my contract ended, the 4 was 8 months old and I decided to hold off on upgrading until the 5 came out. By releasing a 4s, Apple is most likely signaling that there will be a radically new phone released soon. (less than a year) I'm going to get a 4s (the new features a…

A lot of people don't know this but the resale value of last years iphone is usually ~ the subsidized cost of this year's phone + cancellation cost for last part of your contract. There's a bit of a skew to this this year since the 4S came out later then usual.

Example:

(1) cancellation fee after 12 months at ATT is $325 - 120 = $205. If you had bought an iphone 4 in July 2010 the cancellation fee today would be $165.

(2) new iphone costs $200

(3) a 16 month old iphone 4 in good condition sells on ebay today for between $350-$375. A few months ago that was around $400+.

This is a twist on the old Jade plan for Macbook upgrades where you sell your old Macbook every year and buy a new one, always staying under warranty and continually upgrading -- it's not flawless, you will have to shell out a few bucks here and there but it's a pretty good system.

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