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Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

economist.com

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Re: Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

#91

Post by Uchikoma »

zerostar07 wrote: post #80
harryf wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well quantum physics has this at it's core - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncertainty_principle I'm not saying it's directly applicable but the anyone who has grasped it, should be capable of understanding market effects as well.

The uncertainty principle results in indeterminacy, not unpredictability. You still have an expected outcome.

You also have an expected outcome with Greece: Either it will default or not. I think your point sound clever but is not.

Either the cat is dead or it isn't. Or was it Greece?

Re: Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

#92

Post by yxhuvud »

onemoreact wrote: post #68
HSO wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have no doubt she is intelligent, experienced, and has good intentions. But to make the simple connection from physics background, decades away, to today's financial markets and economies strikes me as rather bold. You need to have thought about things, and you can't (unfortunately) just read a couple of books or articles to "learn" this subject. You are aware how the economics profession as a whole performed over…

Economics and Quantum Chemistry accually have a lot in common. They are both looking for mathematical shortcuts / models for highly complex systems and use similar tools. So sure reading a few book is not going to give you an in depth understanding of economics, but being able to look at the math and call Bull !@#$ is invaluable. EX: It is generally accepted that money is created when a bank creates a loan, however,…

There are other alternatives as well, like the one MMT'ers do where money is created when a government spend (and destroyed by taxes). This while bank lending is a zero sum game since it creates a corresponding net negative on the other side of the transaction.

Re: Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

#93

Post by Uchikoma »

jtbigwoo wrote: post #63
gibsonf1 wrote: post #26

I have no idea why Keynesian ideas are assumed as the proper way to solve economic problems when, in fact, they never work. Germany is unusual, especially in comparison to the United States, in that they make a point of only spending the money they have. They have been watching the "wonderful" results of Keynesian intervention in the US recently and around the world and likely noticed that the results are always grea…

...they make a point of only spending the money they have. Germany has the third-highest public debt in the world with only the fifteenth-highest population. Their debt is much higher as a percentage of GDP than the U.S. (83% vs. 62% according to the CIA world Factbook. [1]) They've spent plenty of money they don't have. [1] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

Germany bailed out a bankrupt state in the 90s (the GDR).

Re: Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

#94

Post by Uchikoma »

j_col wrote: post #59
DasIch wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If people save more and spend less, the prices go down, the companies make less money and unemployment figures go up. I don't quite see how this would solve the problem.

Precisely. That is why Germany does not have a great domestic economy, all of their wealth is generated from exports, i.e. first we lend you the money, then you buy our expensive cars with the money, then we ask for the money back ;-)

And then I bail you out with the money from my high income tax.

You have the car. The carmaker has it's money. The bank has it's money. I don't have a car. I've paid for all this ;-)

Re: Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

#95

Post by gibsonf1 »

lukeschlather wrote: post #44
gibsonf1 wrote: post #26

I have no idea why Keynesian ideas are assumed as the proper way to solve economic problems when, in fact, they never work. Germany is unusual, especially in comparison to the United States, in that they make a point of only spending the money they have. They have been watching the "wonderful" results of Keynesian intervention in the US recently and around the world and likely noticed that the results are always grea…

The US has been doing extremely half-assed Keynes. It's not working because the bills haven't been large enough to have a measurable effect. Fundamentally I think the problem is the US has been too risk-averse. We've been hamstrung by our inability to accept that we have to take big risks to solve big problems, instead we're neutering any sort of solution to the point here it doesn't present a risk, and consequently…

For actual Economic theories with a causal basis, the Austrian School wins with Von Mises the clear leader. Keynes simply can't work and never will - more Keynes means an even worse economic disaster.

Re: Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

#96

Post by VladRussian »

jules wrote: post #86
jfruh wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Human rights are a factor, plus there's the fact that Turkey is a Muslim country, though many in the EU won't admit that. But even that could probably be overlooked if not for the fact that Turkey is a huge country. With a population of 73 million people (and a growing population, whereas many European states are stagnant in this regard), Turkey would immediately become the second-largest EU state, which means more m…

Some Turks joke that the Turkish army has the largest gay porn collection in the world. According to a Turkish friend of mine, yours is not an accurate characterization of Turkey. There are still huge problems with democracy, power of the army, corruption, media controlled by people in power, torture, Cyprus, and more. According to him many of these things are worsening -- he is afraid that Turkey is going to go furt…

yep, what GP called "European cultural prejudices" is just a thousand year of direct experience and knowledge that the gradient of how wild and barbaric things become grows when one moves from inside the Europe through East/South Europe toward Russia/Turkey (i need to hand it to Turkey though - "photographic evidence of enjoyment of being penetrated as proof (being exclusively the active sexual partner is not considered gay)" beats a lot of what i could say about my old country :)

Re: Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

#97

Post by tomjen3 »

prewett wrote: post #46
tomjen3 wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not? All that would happen would be that some other previously small bank would get more business. Remember, nobody is too big or has been around too long to be allowed to fail. Assyria fell, so can Goldman Sax.

When banks start failing left and right, people start getting scared, taking their money out of banks, causing banks to become insolvent, causing more banks to fail, etc. When a bank fails, you lose money (absent depositor's insurance), potentially lots of it. This is not a good thing. It caused a lot of pain in 1929/1930s in the U.S., and led to the creation of the FDIC. Even 80 years later, we sort of have a cultur…

Well, yes they do. Unless the bamks are fdic insured, which I believe all banks are.

Re: Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

#98

Post by zerostar07 »

Uchikoma wrote: post #91
zerostar07 wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The uncertainty principle results in indeterminacy, not unpredictability. You still have an expected outcome.

You also have an expected outcome with Greece: Either it will default or not. I think your point sound clever but is not. Either the cat is dead or it isn't. Or was it Greece?

The consensus is that greece will default, the time is uncertain though

Re: Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

#99

Post by Uchikoma »

zerostar07 wrote: post #98
Uchikoma wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You also have an expected outcome with Greece: Either it will default or not. I think your point sound clever but is not. Either the cat is dead or it isn't. Or was it Greece?

The consensus is that greece will default, the time is uncertain though

Then I don't understand your comment above.

Re: Why Germany seems not to want a quick fix for the euro crisis

#100

Post by tsotha »

Iv wrote: post #37
paulkoer wrote: post #5

As a German I must say that in my opinion this article captures the German sentiment very well. On the one hand it is short sided, it will likely lead to more economic problems than necessary and the stance of the Euro members (and Germany especially) on Greece is hurting the economy there much more than necessary. On the other hand I do feel that some of this sentiment is justified. After all the example of Italy (B…

I see only one way out : find responsibles and punish them. Through fines and prison terms. Some people have hidden the true state of Greece by fraudulent accounting with the help of experts from Goldman Sachs. Politician who participated in that should be judged for treason. Financial experts for fraud. Goldman Sachs must be fined heavily for this. Right now, Dexia is falling despite 6 billions of aid in 2008 and a…

Throwing people in jail, however satisfying, is not a "way out".
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