Why the iPhone 5 never arrived • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#31

Post by _djo_ » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:26 PM UTC

hopeless wrote: post #13

demallien wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know, I honestly don't know why people are saying that they're disappointed. For me, this is the first iPhone since the original that gave me a real 'Wow, the future has just arrived' moment. For the original phone it was the Minority Report UI. This time around it's the Star Trek computer that talks to you. When Apple start running TV ads showing off Siri, the average consumer is going to love it.

How many people ever tried using the Voice Control in the iPhone 4? Siri is one of those features (awesome technological achievement notwithstanding) that's great to demo but largely irrelevant (or even unknown) to most users. It's this generation's Carousel view.

The technology (and engineers) behind Voice Control and Siri are completely different.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#32

Post by achompas » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:27 PM UTC

chugger wrote: post #30

achompas wrote: post #19

Is anyone really shocked? Here, I'll write out the tech media "design pattern" for a new Apple product. 1. Hype up killer pie-in-the-sky feature that makes zero economic sense for Apple (see: retina iPad, 4G iPhone with larger screen). Traffic spikes. 2. As launch approaches, use "inside sources" to mock up designs (Macrumors's "we think the 5 will look like this"). Report on supply chain behavior, leaked case design…

Most of these rumors are started by hedge funds with short positions in Apple. 1) Spread rumors about a product 2) Watch stock price go up 3) Wait for the actual product announcement 4) Short sale 5) Profit$$$ it happens everyday.

Yep. I ignored the equity angle but it's a must stronger force in this whole charade.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#33

Post by cletus » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:27 PM UTC

achompas wrote: post #19

Is anyone really shocked? Here, I'll write out the tech media "design pattern" for a new Apple product. 1. Hype up killer pie-in-the-sky feature that makes zero economic sense for Apple (see: retina iPad, 4G iPhone with larger screen). Traffic spikes. 2. As launch approaches, use "inside sources" to mock up designs (Macrumors's "we think the 5 will look like this"). Report on supply chain behavior, leaked case design…

This is exactly what happens.

The iPad 3 was the most egregious example I've seen of this yet. John Gruber said it made sense for the iPad to be on a September release schedule (which actually makes no sense) based on no information whatsoever.

What followed was how the iPad 3 was coming, it had a retina display, the usual unverifiable tales from the supply chain, etc. In the end, unnamed sources said Apple decided to cancel it for a variety of reasons.

Not writing about a product that doesn't (and never) existed gets you zero pageviews. Writing about an Apple product gets you N page views. Writing about an unannounced product and then writing about it being scrapped, being ultimately the same as the first situation, gets you 2N page views.

The iPhone seems to be following a 2 year major release cycle. The 3GS was a relatively minor upgrade to the 3G (with faster CPU, etc) but it had basically the same design. You can make the same comparison from the 4 to the 4S. Next year's will probably have a major shift in outward appearance but that's just a guess.

For me, the upgrade is significant if you play games on your phone. I actually don't (I do on my iPad however). The faster shooting and better sensor are nice but not worth me upgrading I think.

I just wish so many people didn't fall prey to the obvious linkbaiting when it comes to Apple. This pattern constantly repeats itself. Any rational person knew the Fall iPad 3 was never going to happen the second the rumours started. You'll see a new iPad next March/April and probably an LTE iPhone 5 next summer or early Fall.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#34

Post by ryannielsen » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:28 PM UTC

hopeless wrote: post #13

demallien wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You know, I honestly don't know why people are saying that they're disappointed. For me, this is the first iPhone since the original that gave me a real 'Wow, the future has just arrived' moment. For the original phone it was the Minority Report UI. This time around it's the Star Trek computer that talks to you. When Apple start running TV ads showing off Siri, the average consumer is going to love it.

How many people ever tried using the Voice Control in the iPhone 4? Siri is one of those features (awesome technological achievement notwithstanding) that's great to demo but largely irrelevant (or even unknown) to most users. It's this generation's Carousel view.

How many people have tried using Siri? Until it's actually in our hands and put to the test in real world situations, it's hard for anyone to make any claims about how well it works.

It could be reliable, useful and effective; it could be sometimes useful given the right environments and inputs; it could be a complete flop. No one outside of Apple knows right now.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#35

Post by SeanLuke » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:31 PM UTC

Isn't there also something about a promise Verizon gave the government when they won their LTE spectrum? That all devices on the network would be open to any application? I recall Google using this as a club over the iPhone 5 on Verizon.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#36

Post by kenjackson » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:37 PM UTC

hemancuso wrote: post #28

I'm surprised nobody is pointing out similarity to Intel's very successful Tick-Tock release cycle - release a new architecture on tick and refine the process on tock The benefits for Apple are manifold, but the two most obvious are: 1. Keep expectations sane - they can't release a radical new industrial design of superbly high quality every year. 2. Give customers on a 2 year contract predictable value rather than l…

People have mentioned the tick/tock model. In fact, I did, and even said they should just do an iPhone 4s this time around: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3061278

I also noted they should tick the iPhone when the iPad tocks.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#37

Post by _djo_ » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:38 PM UTC

ajross wrote: post #20

wallflower wrote: post #15

The real reason (according to a CNET blog) is that iPhone 4 users are still locked into their 2-year contracts. The iPhone 4S is a good intermediate product which might attract former iPhone users (out of contract) or Droid users.

That's never been an issue before. Other iPhone product cycles have been well under two years and still introduced new features. Hell, the original iPhone was dropped en masse by pretty much everyone in favor of the 3G when it was released after just a year. That sounds more like an excuse than a "real reason" honestly. The real reason, of course, is that Apple didn't have anything revolutionary to ship (other than a…

"That's never been an issue before. Other iPhone product cycles have been well under two years and still introduced new features."

Not so, the pattern of introducing an entirely new model only every second year and a performance boost of the existing model in between is one that Apple has followed since the iPhone 3G:

iPhone 3G -> iPhone 3GS -> iPhone 4 -> iPhone 4S

For that reason I was not expecting an iPhone 5 and was bemused by all the hype surrounding it.

Yet objectively this is a significant upgrade with a huge performance gain, the addition of a very exciting feature in Siri (I suspect it's limited to the iPhone 4S as a result of the decision to add dedicated processing hardware) and a vastly-improved camera. The iPhone 4 design is great and extremely successful, I don't understand why people are so upset that it wasn't changed.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#38

Post by matwood » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:40 PM UTC

chugger wrote: post #14

some interesting points: * More than 90% of Americans still don’t own an iPhone. Heck, two-thirds of Americans still don’t own a smartphone. So the iPhone 4 design isn’t “old” to them. * http://www.splatf.com/2011/10/iphone-4s/

I agree with everything the article says. IMHO, the biggest announcement from yesterday is the $99 iPhone4. I think consumers when given the choice between a cheaper Android (not the flagship ones at $200+) handsets or an iPhone4 will pick the iPhone4.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#39

Post by hernan7 » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:44 PM UTC

achompas wrote: post #19

Is anyone really shocked? Here, I'll write out the tech media "design pattern" for a new Apple product. 1. Hype up killer pie-in-the-sky feature that makes zero economic sense for Apple (see: retina iPad, 4G iPhone with larger screen). Traffic spikes. 2. As launch approaches, use "inside sources" to mock up designs (Macrumors's "we think the 5 will look like this"). Report on supply chain behavior, leaked case design…

I think you misspelled 'amirite'. Also, yesterday's APPL fall was like 6%. Right on all remaining points.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#40

Post by jeswin » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:46 PM UTC

chugger wrote: post #30

achompas wrote: post #19

Is anyone really shocked? Here, I'll write out the tech media "design pattern" for a new Apple product. 1. Hype up killer pie-in-the-sky feature that makes zero economic sense for Apple (see: retina iPad, 4G iPhone with larger screen). Traffic spikes. 2. As launch approaches, use "inside sources" to mock up designs (Macrumors's "we think the 5 will look like this"). Report on supply chain behavior, leaked case design…

Most of these rumors are started by hedge funds with short positions in Apple. 1) Spread rumors about a product 2) Watch stock price go up 3) Wait for the actual product announcement 4) Short sale 5) Profit$$$ it happens everyday.

Any sources for this?