Why the iPhone 5 never arrived • Hacker News Board

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#11

Post by emilsedgh » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 3:43 PM UTC

flyosity wrote: post #2

I think we all saw what we wanted to see. I wanted an iPhone 5 and journalists wanted to write about an iPhone 5 so that was the story we all focused on. Looking back there are multiple signs that the 4S was going to be the only new model introduced, but just like Fox Mulder, we all wanted to believe.

Why does your comment sound like coming of 'iphone 5' is the most important thing on earth that humanity couldnt survive without?

Seriously, I dont want to troll and I understand that iphone's are cool, people want them and even many people in HN have businesses based on it, but "we all wanted to believe"? is iphone5 that important? This is beyond simple fanboism. This is a disaster.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#12

Post by prawn » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 3:46 PM UTC

Saw the common reaction to the iPhone 5 disappointment summarised loosely as: "If this new product looks like the last one, how will people tell that I'm superior to them?"

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#13

Post by hopeless » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 3:50 PM UTC

demallien wrote: post #9

brackin wrote: post #5

I showed my friends the iPhone 4S today without mentioning how some people online are disappointed and they loved it, they aren't geeks and were part of the group that said the iPad was useless and just a big iPod. Most of the UK news outlets i've seen haven't reported it as a flop of any kind just reported it as an update. People seem really excited by Siri, they thought it was impossible and I heard similar thought…

You know, I honestly don't know why people are saying that they're disappointed. For me, this is the first iPhone since the original that gave me a real 'Wow, the future has just arrived' moment. For the original phone it was the Minority Report UI. This time around it's the Star Trek computer that talks to you. When Apple start running TV ads showing off Siri, the average consumer is going to love it.

How many people ever tried using the Voice Control in the iPhone 4? Siri is one of those features (awesome technological achievement notwithstanding) that's great to demo but largely irrelevant (or even unknown) to most users. It's this generation's Carousel view.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#14

Post by chugger » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 3:52 PM UTC

some interesting points: * More than 90% of Americans still don’t own an iPhone. Heck, two-thirds of Americans still don’t own a smartphone. So the iPhone 4 design isn’t “old” to them. *

http://www.splatf.com/2011/10/iphone-4s/

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#15

Post by wallflower » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 3:52 PM UTC

The real reason (according to a CNET blog) is that iPhone 4 users are still locked into their 2-year contracts. The iPhone 4S is a good intermediate product which might attract former iPhone users (out of contract) or Droid users.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#16

Post by akashshah » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 3:53 PM UTC

jsavimbi wrote: post #8

Tichy wrote: post #4

One of these days I really must create a bunch of alter egos and make them predict different things. Then I can style the remaining ego that predicted the right thing into a prophet and make big money.

Too much hassle. Start with one persona and just keep revising estimates as word comes out without mentioning it. Then obfuscate by "calling out" other experts. Nobody can be arsed to click the link you provide and wade through commentary to refute you anyway. Just remember to answer any question with "It's what I've been saying all along..." and use short, choppy sentences.

You mean like MG Siegler?

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#17

Post by snarfman » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 3:53 PM UTC

Tichy wrote: post #4

One of these days I really must create a bunch of alter egos and make them predict different things. Then I can style the remaining ego that predicted the right thing into a prophet and make big money.

This is how some sports betting scams work. I can email a lot of people with one side of a wager and another large lot with the other side. The next week I'll just use the winning side email pool to send out another split wager. All the while I invite bettors to join my foolproof pick service. In a few weeks I'm looking pretty good to a small group.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#18

Post by mikeash » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 3:55 PM UTC

prawn wrote: post #12

Saw the common reaction to the iPhone 5 disappointment summarised loosely as: "If this new product looks like the last one, how will people tell that I'm superior to them?"

If this exact same phone had come out with the name "iPhone 5", and maybe a different case, people would be praising it to the heavens. People are weird.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#19

Post by achompas » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 3:56 PM UTC

Is anyone really shocked? Here, I'll write out the tech media "design pattern" for a new Apple product.

1. Hype up killer pie-in-the-sky feature that makes zero economic sense for Apple (see: retina iPad, 4G iPhone with larger screen). Traffic spikes.

2. As launch approaches, use "inside sources" to mock up designs (Macrumors's "we think the 5 will look like this"). Report on supply chain behavior, leaked case designs, etc. Traffic spikes.

3. Live blog the launch event. Toss in snarky one-liners ("Siri? beam me up Scotty m i rite lolol") because you and your readers are too cool to watch the keynote but I guessssss we'll tune in anyway. Servers overload with traffic.

4. Write editorials complaining about how pie-in-the-sky features from #1 don't arrive. Cover your ass by reporting "supply chain delays" from unnamed sources. Hits among disillusioned gadget connoisseurs (heh) spike.

4.5. AAPL falls 2-3% even though the product will break sales records again. Yawn.

5. Break for a week or two to avoid tech journalism burnout, then repeat for next product. (e.g. iPad HD supply chain rumors in Nov/Dec). Traffic spikes.

Whatever.

EDIT: My favorite was the rumor about the iPad 2 getting a HD screen. The next best screen on the market (the Xoom) was like 140 ppi. Why would Apple drop $n >> 0 per iPad when competitors' screens are relatively abysmal and the iPad would sell out?

Anyone who bought that rumor displayed a serious unfamiliarity with the concepts of marginal benefit and marginal cost.

EDIT 2: Go read the child comment by chugger. It's all about the short positions.

Re: Why the iPhone 5 never arrived

#20

Post by ajross » Wed, Oct 05, 2011, 4:01 PM UTC

wallflower wrote: post #15

The real reason (according to a CNET blog) is that iPhone 4 users are still locked into their 2-year contracts. The iPhone 4S is a good intermediate product which might attract former iPhone users (out of contract) or Droid users.

That's never been an issue before. Other iPhone product cycles have been well under two years and still introduced new features. Hell, the original iPhone was dropped en masse by pretty much everyone in favor of the 3G when it was released after just a year. That sounds more like an excuse than a "real reason" honestly.

The real reason, of course, is that Apple didn't have anything revolutionary to ship (other than an out-of-house software product that they turned into a "hardware" feature by fiat). I'm not convinced that's bad, really. I think a bigger issue is that smartphones are turning into a mature product and there's simply less revolution to be had.

But my gut is with the many other people who have voiced similar intuitions: this feels a lot like the mid-90's, when Apple stagnated in the face of clear motion in the industry, chasing old markets while new ones opened. Is the iPhone 4S the new Centris?