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Crypto is an unproductive bubble

alexkolchinski.com

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Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#491

Post by tigerlily »

lamontcg wrote: post #98
benreesman wrote: post #43

How many times are we going to have this conversation? Yes crypto is an asset bubble, alongside equities, real estate, precious metals, you name it. Money printer go brrrr, more dollars are chasing the same amount of Apple sells iPhones. Crypto has no intrinsic value, it pays no dividend and doesn’t give you proxy rights, just like all the tech equities. Proof of work burns a lot of electricity, though this is compli…

> This horse has been flogged into quarks at this point. HackerNews Crypto Thread Discovers Unconfined Equine Quarks (theregister.com) Forum Boffins Observe Physics Beyond Large Hadron Collider: New Use For Blockchain in Repeatedly Smashing Dumb Ideas Together

Scientists baffled?

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#492

Post by danuker »

Aunche wrote: post #112
danuker wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A better comparison would have been national currency. A piece of paper has no intrinsic value, pays no dividend, and gets diluted over time.

Still not the same. Every fiat currency that isn't effectively useless facilitates far more trade than its face value.

Current USD M2 monetary velocity is barely above 1, which is far from "far more".

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#493

Post by stazz1 »

cma wrote: post #297
stazz1 wrote: post #286

I think you're missing a lot of information from your article and your thinking. The creative limits of a new organizational strategy for information are nonexistent. That is, when the vacuum-tube was invented, no one foresaw the integrated circuit. When the personal computer was made possible, no one really foresaw the internet. When the internet was spawned, nobody really foresaw large companies dominating the ment…

The internet predates the pc.

Uh no?

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#494

Post by lern_too_spel »

gonehome wrote: post #468
lern_too_spel wrote: post #379

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wasn't discussing the case of Canada banning Bitcoin but of Canada sanctioning the truckers' wallets. Wherever the truckers go, their Bitcoins would no longer be allowed on Canadian exchanges. The fiat equivalent would be moving money to an overseas account. Before you are sanctioned, doing so is just as easy as buying Bitcoin. After you are sanctioned, both are equally hard. The difference is that your Bitcoins ca…

It’s not as easy to move money to an overseas account as it is to buy Bitcoin. Your money on that account is still being trusted to some authority and your guarantees on it are limited. The real fiat equivalent would be moving all your wealth into cash first (literally physical bills in your house), which is obviously worse and harder to move. Your bitcoins cannot also be demonetized any differently than fiat. It’s s…

You can transact despite the sanctions, but if nobody will accept your coins because they won't be accepted on exchanges, they are effectively useless, which is my point. Custody is meaningless when your wallet can be demonetized.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#495

Post by nl »

randomhodler84 wrote: post #464
nl wrote: post #412

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m not familiar with that one. I am pretty much a BTC maxi. Wait.. you are being critical of me and you are stuck on BTC? To put it simply, people who BTC Maxis in 2022 are like those people on HN at the Facebook IPO who didn't understand why it was profitable.

I still don’t get why Facebook is profitable. I’ve never used their products and never will. Screw Meta.

Ah I get it. Your arguments are based in a religious faith in Bitcoin, not logic or economics.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#496

Post by gonehome »

lern_too_spel wrote: post #494
gonehome wrote: post #468

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s not as easy to move money to an overseas account as it is to buy Bitcoin. Your money on that account is still being trusted to some authority and your guarantees on it are limited. The real fiat equivalent would be moving all your wealth into cash first (literally physical bills in your house), which is obviously worse and harder to move. Your bitcoins cannot also be demonetized any differently than fiat. It’s s…

You can transact despite the sanctions, but if nobody will accept your coins because they won't be accepted on exchanges, they are effectively useless, which is my point. Custody is meaningless when your wallet can be demonetized.

It’s more likely someone will accept them and that some exchanges will still accept them. What you’re suggesting requires perfect and total global coordination.

With fiat in a bank, you don’t have a chance since it just gets frozen and you don’t actually have custody. With crypto it’s more likely you can continue to transact.

It’s a matter of degree.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#497

Post by lern_too_spel »

gonehome wrote: post #496
lern_too_spel wrote: post #494

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can transact despite the sanctions, but if nobody will accept your coins because they won't be accepted on exchanges, they are effectively useless, which is my point. Custody is meaningless when your wallet can be demonetized.

It’s more likely someone will accept them and that some exchanges will still accept them. What you’re suggesting requires perfect and total global coordination. With fiat in a bank, you don’t have a chance since it just gets frozen and you don’t actually have custody. With crypto it’s more likely you can continue to transact. It’s a matter of degree.

But why would someone accept your less-useful crypto when they can accept fully useful crypto instead? Other exchanges will either refuse to accept it (easier) or have to mark it as tainted and set up separate markets that accept those tokens and pay them out.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#498

Post by Retric »

dorgo wrote: post #490
Retric wrote: post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bubbles only look like pure movement in one direction when zoomed out, the 90’s stock market had plenty of setbacks on what we recall as a seemingly endless rise. For example 1997-10-27 the DOW had a single day drop of −7.18%, a direct quote from the time period: "I came in to look at my stock prices and I said, 'Oh my God, it's a crash!’” But nope just a minor correction. https://money.cnn.com/1997/10/27/markets/mar…

> When prices drop 99% that’s when the bubbles burst. lol. Ether dropped 93% in 2018 and is doing just fine today. I think you have to adjust your "bubbles burst" definition for crypto.

93% retains 7x the value of a 99% drop. Actual companies have recovered from similar drops, it’s however rare.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#499

Post by CyberDildonics »

randomhodler84 wrote: post #292
tchock23 wrote: post #289

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which blockchain will be eternal?

Bitcoin will outlive you and me. Lots of others too probably.

You realize that bitcoin has a bandwidth of about 1 KB/s, which is less than a 28.8 modem right?

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/size-btc.html#1y

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#500

Post by gonehome »

lern_too_spel wrote: post #497
gonehome wrote: post #496

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s more likely someone will accept them and that some exchanges will still accept them. What you’re suggesting requires perfect and total global coordination. With fiat in a bank, you don’t have a chance since it just gets frozen and you don’t actually have custody. With crypto it’s more likely you can continue to transact. It’s a matter of degree.

But why would someone accept your less-useful crypto when they can accept fully useful crypto instead? Other exchanges will either refuse to accept it (easier) or have to mark it as tainted and set up separate markets that accept those tokens and pay them out.

You're right that sanctions and restrictions could impact the price.

What I'm arguing is that this impact doesn't cause the price to be zero, requires global coordination to have a big impact, and that even in this case, the self-custody capability of crypto is still something better than the alternative (no access to any funds or any ability to transact). We're also discussing an extreme worst case (and even in that case it's still better than frozen non-custodial fiat funds).

Flagging wallets to exchanges also requires targeting and many people wouldn't get hit by this. There are also a lot of cases that benefit from self-custody in a world that doesn't have this extreme global coordination to sanction crypto.

Imagine the case where you're a random Ukrainian citizen in Russian occupied territory trying to get your wealth out across a hostile border. Your crypto wallet is not likely to be flagged to exchanges (even if it was most exchanges wouldn't care). You can memorize the seed words and get out safely with the ability to recreate your wealth on the other side.

This has already happened at least once: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tatianakoffman/2020/06/13/why-b...

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