Live data from Hacker News

Crypto is an unproductive bubble

alexkolchinski.com

481–490 of 539 posts

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#481

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I can’t understand how anyone has any confidence in crypto after the current Ukraine/Russia situation. I thought that crypto was decentralized and no-one could place restrictions on who could own it, and what they could do with it. You do realize that their are capital controls self-imposed by the Ukrainian National Bank, right? And that Bitcoin has been legalized in Ukraine [0] after the influx of Bitcoin donation…

> So, all I have been able to gather from all of this is that YC/HN remains incredibly ignorant of what Bitcoin and crypto avails, and will draw conclusions based more on that ignorance then take the time to actually look into what is actually taking place. And yet, you people think crypto is seriously going to "catch on" for the average person? I'm sorry, but "you need a certain IQ to understand Rick and M- I mean c…

The average user doesn't need to 'get it,' they need to be incentivized to use it, believe me I had a startup that targeted a demographic that you'd never suspect would ever use it, that is until they had to because they were unable to hold a bank account and were subject to financial censorship and had thier accounts frozen or seized: the average age of said demographic was in the mid 60s.

Personally speaking, I think Bitcoin won't get 'mass adoption' in the developed World until they are using it without actually realizing: think a GUI and UX similar to that of online banking, and unfortunately, custodial services and wallets.

The idealist crypto-nerd in me wished everyone would be running their own mainchain and LN node and would be securing their funds on hardware wallets, and only communicated over End to End or PgP encrypted platforms with keys they swapped in person: but after over 10 years in this space I have come to realize that the average person will gravitate towards convince in orders of magnitude much more than security.

It's a harsh reality that I have long accepted when it comes to the 'average user' and it helps explain the prevalence of why the leaks, hacks and data breaches using these leaky services continues.

Personally speaking, this isn't 2011, you don't need to learn how to use Linux to download the blockchain and synch up to the network using QT and create wallets in the terminal, thus the IQ factor isn't relevant anymore... all you need is a relatively modern smart phone and an internet connection (and when that is down a Blockstream satellite or access to Starlink as has been proven to be the case in Tonga and Ukraine this year) to plug into this inclusive financial system: it's very telling that 3G/4G availability is more prevalent in the developed World than running water is.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#482
post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So what? That is, like I said, 100% by design. In order for currency to be useful as a currency, it should inflate gradually. We're slightly high right now and were even higher for a while 40 years ago, but in neither case has the system broken. Sellers and employers know what to expect and how to pace prices and wages in a sensible way to keep pace. When the system starts to buckle, policy makers have mechanisms to…

QE creates inequality via asset bubble inflation (those without assets are on the losing end), there's a housing crisis because housing (and now commodities) is used as a store-of-value. The Petro-dollar system is not ESG friendly and it is coming to and end: China is no longer buying treasuries, Saudi is willing to price oil in Yuan, and the West is seizing Russian reserves. Your faith in the dollar system seems unp…

QE prevents deflation. Asset bubbles, college costs, housing supply are all well outside the ability of any central bank to affect. And 2007 gold bugs want their talking points back. We very obviously don't need any other country to buy our treasuries and yet they trip over themselves to do so. Nor do we care how oil is priced. Those are barely valid criticisms of USD but USD isn't the only fiat that's been extremely resilient to disruption. EUR, GBP, CHF are all stable through a series of disasters. What do honestly think would have happened if BTC was the standard currency for the last 15 years? We'd be on the barter system by now.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#483
post #431

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Sorry, but your claim is just not true in practice. Of course it isn't, but they clearly have an axe to grind against things they do not understand at all and they will remain oblivious to the the very obvious fact that SEPA is pretty broken--EU nations and non-Euro nations (within the EU) do not transfer directly or instantly either. It can take days and the expenses, transfer rates, and exchange rates are not 0 e…

> they will remain oblivious to the the very obvious fact that SEPA is pretty broken--EU nations and non-Euro nations (within the EU) do not transfer directly or instantly either You're aware that SEPA is for the eurozone only, right? SEPA is slow-ish (2-3 days) and free, and now there's SEPA Instant, supported by many banks ( I don't think there are stats, but all of the 5 banks i use have it) which is fast and work…

> You're aware that SEPA is for the eurozone only

Yes, I live there as a US citizen without access to EU banking, do you? It also worth noting that it is utilized by non EU member-nations, too. (See link below.)

I also happen to live in a country that hasn't adopted the Euro, it will soon but hasn't yet. I also pay my rent to somoene who lives and works in a Euro based country.

Thus direct transfer with Euro to non-Euro accounts (and vice-versa) requires fees, transfers, and conversion costs. And it doesn't operate 24/7, and they never have; weekends always have delays--I paid a friend from Switzerland in BTC to pay someone in a SEPA non-euro EU member nation for a deposit on an apartment before a flight on US time on a weekday (weekend in their time zone) and the funds arrived in less than 10 mins for 17 cents via BTC, the payment to arrive to from a Swiss bank account to a non-euro bank account took 3 days to arrive and clear. SEPA is what Switzerland uses, even though its not a EU nation [0]. And I used to live there when the CHF was pegged to the EUR and was accepted just like the CHF: there are payment rails that never changed as a result.

What I'm saying is things are more complex tan you are making it out to be when it comes to fintech and unless you work in it you will never truly understand that--what some deem edge cases are quite typical if you work in this Industry.

I think your POV is still based on the idea that things are working under ideal conditions (or near them), where as the Bitcoin network was designed to bypass and rout around all those inconsistencies and all the constraints when it doesn't operate as it should. Which is typical for the vast majority of the World's population.

I'm sure your measure of 'functional' vastly differs to someone who operates a legal and legitimate business, but because they are deemed someone who is either high risk or simply persona non-grata for working in an Industry the State doesn't like they cannot gain access to a bank account.

I think this is really the best 'check your privilege' moment we will ever have in the tech space, and most people on HN (mainly affluent tech workers) have as you expected failed in remarkable manner; instead of the woke BS that it's often used to explain people's insulated existence, this usecase clearly exposes how naive and coddled citizens of the developed World are to what are common and typical issues in the rest of the World, but since it has had almost no impact on their own day to day they not only ignore it but will go out of there way to criticize they have a glib understanding of at best.

I can make more sweeping generalizations, but I'm not sure it will be of any use.

0: https://gocardless.com/guides/sepa/countries-sepa-zone/

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Exchange risk is tempered somewhat by Coinbase which is more comparable to a standard bank in terms of risk (imo). The fine print does not bear this out at all. Coinbase states in their TOS that your funds may not replaced in the case of a breach because they do not insure the entirety of accounts, nor do they stipulate a guaranteed insured amount:[0] > In case of a covered security event, we will endeavor to make…

FDIC insurance is capped at 250k. The recovery there is also limited and it’s a bad idea to keep large amounts of money in a bank account. > “Comparing the risk profile of Coinbase to a bank is no different than blindly trusting a big bank not to fail.” That’s kind of my point? They share a similar risk. The most interesting thing with crypto is the new capabilities it enables for self custody of wealth. There’s also…

But your individual losses are covered when a bank fails, you're not protected when an exchange fails. They're just gonna try their hardest to make you whole. Look at that worked out at Mt Gox.

> The most interesting thing with crypto is the new capabilities it enables for self custody of wealth.

Serious question: what are the new capabilities that this opens up? These tokens are really unstable which makes them poor candidates to use as actual currency, research shows that decentralized networks are no less susceptible to market manipulation than traditional financial markets and there's an unbelievable amount of fraud everywhere in this space.

The whole reason the Federal Reserve was created was to weed out endemic fraudulent activity around the country during the era of "Wildcat Banking"[0], when banks were essentially creating their own currencies. Crypto is largely the digital reincarnation of this philosophy, and isn't really doing anything about shitcoins and other scams. Now, we're starting to see the legitimization of shitcoins through sports team fan tokens that provide no tangible value beyond the purely speculative "hodl" mentality.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wildcat_banking

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The timing for such a bad argument is bad and it is still shitty. Crypto bros telling us how great it is for the poor people in such countries to get money. Now we see the downside of this as well. Oligarchs protecting their assets as well. Leveled playfield. No added benefit from crypto anymore. And yes right now for me, sanctioning is more critical to me to increase the pressure on Russia to stop killing people tha…

Well, one can easily disagree with the justice of these sorts of indiscriminate collective punishments. At the end of the day you're going to have a hard time justifying to someone why they should feel morally compelled to cut off remittances to their family members because of these sort of high-level geopolitical concerns. The more that financial repression and "cancellations" become mainstream, the more obvious cry…

I'm not sure what you mean?

How much is a human life worth to you? How much are we all responsible for everything and nothing?

Collective punishment? It's just that there are limitations on tools global politics can use.

Independently of this perhaps my expectations on fellow humans are different than yours.

And at the end of the day crypto can be blocked and will be blocked sooner than later. every event like this which circumvent global mechanism will be worked against

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#486
post #196
post #32

Another point I’d add: isn’t it telling that we haven’t come up with use cases for crypto that aren’t in some way speculation in the last decade plus?

What other way do you have to do this? First sentence of the Bitcoin whitepaper: "A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution."

I’d say that’s a feature but what I’m talking about is real in-use projects

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#487
post #302

Crypto people love to say “it’s the early days.” But it’s not. Bitcoin is 13 years old. At that age, Windows was on >90% of the world’s computers. Java at age 13 had taken over enterprise software and was about to conquer mobile via Android. Cryptos are used by maybe 0.1% of computer users (if we’re very generous about what exactly constitutes usage). Considering the amount of investment they are an expensive failure…

Windows was not one of the first operating systems, nor Android for mobile OS. Doesn't seem like great comparisons to make to be honest.

The first operating system for real work is arguably in 1956 [1]. 13 years later we still didn't have the personal computer.

The internet was born in 1983. 13 years later it was around 36M users (1% global population) [2]

With "general purpose" crypto/decentralized apps really only getting going in 2015 w/ ethereum, it does seem like early days. The UX and infrastructure/tooling are still a ways away from being consumer ready.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_operating_systems [2] https://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#488

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

Recently, german bank accounts of citizens of russia living in germany were silently blocked from receiving funds.

It is all but impossible to block a crypto wallet from receiving funds.

There are pros and cons everywhere.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#489
post #478

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This hinges on the contracts actually working as intended, which is something they often do not. Code in general rarely does poorly in that regard. It's really hard to consider every contingency beforehand. Unknown unknowns and all that.

> This hinges on the contracts actually working as intended, which is something they often do not. Code in general rarely does poorly in that regard. Exactly the same can be said about the legal system. People are just a lot more used to the many existing "glitches" of the legal system in comparison to "bugs" in smart contracts.

The critical difference is that laws can be changed, contracts are immutable.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#490
post #354

Nothing in here that hasn't been said in the last 10 year. It's tempting to dismiss it as a bubble. But; most bubbles don't get 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th... etc. chances. Every time bitcoin crashes people say "this one is different, this time it's dead for real", then it bounces back. It's proving to be far more cockroach like than anyone anticipated. In the more distant future, if bitcoin survives, its utility will just be…

Bubbles only look like pure movement in one direction when zoomed out, the 90’s stock market had plenty of setbacks on what we recall as a seemingly endless rise. For example 1997-10-27 the DOW had a single day drop of −7.18%, a direct quote from the time period: "I came in to look at my stock prices and I said, 'Oh my God, it's a crash!’” But nope just a minor correction. https://money.cnn.com/1997/10/27/markets/mar…

> When prices drop 99% that’s when the bubbles burst.

lol. Ether dropped 93% in 2018 and is doing just fine today. I think you have to adjust your "bubbles burst" definition for crypto.

Post reply on HN