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Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

washingtonpost.com

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Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#31

Post by mattcwilson »

teawrecks wrote: post #22
sublimefire wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found it a bit clickbaity. The title is correct to the letter but not really to the spirit, because down at the bottom there is: > Temperatures are known to vary wildly over Antarctica, and massive swings are common. Contrasting with this warm spell over eastern Antarctica, the South Pole observed just observed its coldest April to September period on record last year, with an average temperature of minus-78 degree…

I think you're hearing "massive swings" and jumping to the conclusion that 5 std dev is somehow normal-ish behavior for the region. It's not. At all. By definition.

That’s absolutely right.

But as the article itself says, we don’t know if this is the start of some trend or if this is a never previously observed fluke.

Climate change is about regression to a mean that is itself higher than the previous mean. But with or without human contribution, weather events are still going to regress to a mean.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#32

Post by formvoltron »

kadoban wrote: post #13
bruce343434 wrote: post #6

So what will be the consequences of this? Article makes it clear this is not normal, but doesn't really say much else.

Nobody really knows, and it's too late to do anything real about it. Fun times.

I was told that I could use my SUV up until the problems start, and then I could just start taking the bus to solve it.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#33

Post by toss1 »

bruce343434 wrote: post #6

So what will be the consequences of this? Article makes it clear this is not normal, but doesn't really say much else.

If it is just some kind of random anomaly, like a rogue wave, not much beyond an odd layer in the glacial ice pack.

The problem is that this is most definitely not an anomaly, but a point in a trend of massive climate change. There are many predictions of the consequences, and as far as I can tell, the actual data are running ahead of the most serious predictions. Seems like just another data point.

Also to consider is the multiplier effects of higher temperatures at high latitudes, which is already starting to release gigatons of methane stored in the permafrost, and methane has about 22X the warming effect of carbon dioxide. Not the kind of feedback loop we want to allow to run away.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#34

Post by b112 »

mattcwilson wrote: post #31
teawrecks wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're hearing "massive swings" and jumping to the conclusion that 5 std dev is somehow normal-ish behavior for the region. It's not. At all. By definition.

That’s absolutely right. But as the article itself says, we don’t know if this is the start of some trend or if this is a never previously observed fluke. Climate change is about regression to a mean that is itself higher than the previous mean. But with or without human contribution, weather events are still going to regress to a mean.

We at least have day-to-day written history for thousands of years, in human population zones. We have oral beyond that.

We barely have 30 or 40 for a place like antartica.

We can detect gross climate, and not any real weather in fossils.

For example, no fossil record would capture a chinook, a common occurance in Alberta.

https://cwf.ca/research/publications/five-facts-about-chinoo...

In 1962, Pincher Creek saw record temperature rise of 41 °C from -19 to 22 °C in just an hour.

One hour!

And of course, we have only been monitoring chinooks with detail for maybe a 150 years.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#35

Post by beeboop »

spacemanmatt wrote: post #21
lixtra wrote: post #10

> This event is completely unprecedented and upended our expectations about the Antarctic climate system While this is more about weather than climate it shows how much is still left to be understood.

The climate is the weather, on average. It's not wrong to call this climate change.

The earth is billions of years old. A single week of hot temperatures is not indicative of lasting, permanent change or even a change in a trend in terms of climate

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#36

Post by Kim_Bruning »

luxuryballs wrote: post #19
bruce343434 wrote: post #6

So what will be the consequences of this? Article makes it clear this is not normal, but doesn't really say much else.

Nothing long term, it will most likely swing back the other way in a decade or two just like it has done for all of recorded history, oscillating back and forth like a global thermal tide.

For that to be true, it either should have swung back already, or at least it needs to do so very VERY soon.

https://xkcd.com/1732/

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#37

Post by WinterMount223 »

FabHK wrote: post #29
WinterMount223 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know the temperature probability distribution in Antartica? Not all distributions are normal and not all even have a standard deviation.

The probability that an observation is beyond 5 standard deviations is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chebyshev's_inequality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cauchy_distribution

If the observed variable is “the mean temperature in a given day”, 4% can be expected to occur relatively frequently.

Anyway until we know the probability distribution, and my intuition says that it’s definitely not Normal for wide periods of time, we can’t say if it’s significant or not.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#38

Post by yodon »

sublimefire wrote: post #18
lixtra wrote: post #10

> This event is completely unprecedented and upended our expectations about the Antarctic climate system While this is more about weather than climate it shows how much is still left to be understood.

I found it a bit clickbaity. The title is correct to the letter but not really to the spirit, because down at the bottom there is: > Temperatures are known to vary wildly over Antarctica, and massive swings are common. Contrasting with this warm spell over eastern Antarctica, the South Pole observed just observed its coldest April to September period on record last year, with an average temperature of minus-78 degree…

When you start calling five sigma events "click-baity" you may find others asking legitimate questions about your ability to assess what is significant.

Encountering a headline that tries to get people to read the article is a roughly zero-sigma event. That's the purpose of a headline, and has been for about 150 years. Retailers also sell things for more than they paid for them and supply chains are hard. If you can understand what a five sigma event is, you can understand these things as well.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#39

Post by Jaruzel »

yissp wrote: post #27
einpoklum wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is too late to do something about what happens _today_, it is not too late to do something about what is now likely to happen in a decade, and two, and three. Your comment sounds like on of the stages of the "four stage strategy" from Yes Minister: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak originally about why the UK doesn't help foreign nations in an inconvenient crisis.

Amazing, I would totally have assumed that clip was referring to climate change without any other context.

Most of the great scenes from Yes Minister, and latterly Yes Prime Minister, still not only stand up today, but are also surprisingly still relevant 40 years after they were first broadcast.

It truly was a genius show.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#40

Post by zmgsabst »

FabHK wrote: post #29
WinterMount223 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you know the temperature probability distribution in Antartica? Not all distributions are normal and not all even have a standard deviation.

The probability that an observation is beyond 5 standard deviations is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chebyshev's_inequality https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cauchy_distribution

4% would imply that we should expect about two weeks of such weather every year, in total.

Which would make this article somewhat clickbait — nothing more than “wowza, July 15th is another hot one in California!”

Since it’s currently summer, in the Southern Hemisphere.

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