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Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

washingtonpost.com

21–30 of 90 posts

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#21
post #10

> This event is completely unprecedented and upended our expectations about the Antarctic climate system While this is more about weather than climate it shows how much is still left to be understood.

The climate is the weather, on average. It's not wrong to call this climate change.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#22
post #10

> This event is completely unprecedented and upended our expectations about the Antarctic climate system While this is more about weather than climate it shows how much is still left to be understood.

I found it a bit clickbaity. The title is correct to the letter but not really to the spirit, because down at the bottom there is: > Temperatures are known to vary wildly over Antarctica, and massive swings are common. Contrasting with this warm spell over eastern Antarctica, the South Pole observed just observed its coldest April to September period on record last year, with an average temperature of minus-78 degree…

I think you're hearing "massive swings" and jumping to the conclusion that 5 std dev is somehow normal-ish behavior for the region. It's not. At all. By definition.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#23
post #11

So what will be the consequences of this? Article makes it clear this is not normal, but doesn't really say much else.

Accelerated calving, meltwater flows, unsafe ice conditions for researchers would be some of the immediate consequences, in addition to the obvious long-term atmospheric and oceanic implications resulting from ice volume loss.

It's still below freezing. It's just supposed to be way colder than that.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#24
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I found it a bit clickbaity. The title is correct to the letter but not really to the spirit, because down at the bottom there is: > Temperatures are known to vary wildly over Antarctica, and massive swings are common. Contrasting with this warm spell over eastern Antarctica, the South Pole observed just observed its coldest April to September period on record last year, with an average temperature of minus-78 degree…

Uhh last I checked 5 standard deviations was the definition of a statistically significant difference. To me it sounds like a realization that climate changes will have drastic and possibly chaotic effects.

Do you know the temperature probability distribution in Antartica? Not all distributions are normal and not all even have a standard deviation.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#25
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody really knows, and it's too late to do anything real about it. Fun times.

It is too late to do something about what happens _today_, it is not too late to do something about what is now likely to happen in a decade, and two, and three. Your comment sounds like on of the stages of the "four stage strategy" from Yes Minister: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak originally about why the UK doesn't help foreign nations in an inconvenient crisis.

> [...] a decade, and two, and three.

My understanding is that very little of what we do now would have any effect on what happens in a decade. Maybe in three.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#26
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uhh last I checked 5 standard deviations was the definition of a statistically significant difference. To me it sounds like a realization that climate changes will have drastic and possibly chaotic effects.

Do you know the temperature probability distribution in Antartica? Not all distributions are normal and not all even have a standard deviation.

[deleted]

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#27
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody really knows, and it's too late to do anything real about it. Fun times.

It is too late to do something about what happens _today_, it is not too late to do something about what is now likely to happen in a decade, and two, and three. Your comment sounds like on of the stages of the "four stage strategy" from Yes Minister: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak originally about why the UK doesn't help foreign nations in an inconvenient crisis.

Amazing, I would totally have assumed that clip was referring to climate change without any other context.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#28
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uhh last I checked 5 standard deviations was the definition of a statistically significant difference. To me it sounds like a realization that climate changes will have drastic and possibly chaotic effects.

Do you know the temperature probability distribution in Antartica? Not all distributions are normal and not all even have a standard deviation.

Standard deviation is defined by the distribution under question.

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#29
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Uhh last I checked 5 standard deviations was the definition of a statistically significant difference. To me it sounds like a realization that climate changes will have drastic and possibly chaotic effects.

Do you know the temperature probability distribution in Antartica? Not all distributions are normal and not all even have a standard deviation.

The probability that an observation is beyond 5 standard deviations is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chebyshev's_inequality

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cauchy_distribution

Re: Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal

#30
post #17
post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody really knows, and it's too late to do anything real about it. Fun times.

That is wrong on many levels. Such nihilist position does not help the millions of people leading concrete actions on different scales. You are wrong, it's not too late to change how we behave regarding climate and such way of thinking is unlikely to induce the required actions.

It's too late for what's happening now, that's for sure. Stopping the "surprises" that are going to happen in a few decades are still likely physically possible. We'll see if humanity is up to it.
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