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Crypto is an unproductive bubble

alexkolchinski.com

81–90 of 539 posts

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They view it as a feature, but for all the reasons this poster pointed out, the rest of us view it as an anti-feature.

That's the beauty of the concept of freedom. In a free society, we'd all be able to choose our own poison. Unfortunately, many who view it as an anti-feature seek to prevent those who view it as a feature from making their own choice, either through regulation or outright bans.

If you take this argument to its logical conclusion, anarchism is the only form of free government.

All laws and regulations necessarily take freedom away. That is the basis of the social contract: you aren’t free to harm others.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. I believe this is viewed as a feature in the blockchain / cryptocurrency world.

They view it as a feature, but for all the reasons this poster pointed out, the rest of us view it as an anti-feature.

The nature of the benefits and harms of such a thing is highly context dependent. Making an absolute statement like this is basically meaningless without specifying more.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#83
post #6

I have a hard time imagining how your normal everyday people would put any faith whatsoever in crypto. It's another step removed from "just a bunch of numbers in an account" (current banking) that is even harder to explain and justify. Why should they trust it? So how can it succeed if everyday people don't want to use it?

Flip it. Why should they trust anything else? They don't, so crypto being untrustworthy doesn't particularly stand out from the stock market, where you can also easily fuck up and lose your shirt without ever quite understanding what you've gotten into. See: options.

My bank account is insured by the government up to 250k. To trust the banking system is to trust the government.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#85
post #5

Counter point - art itself has absolutely zero non-monetary applications. If you disagree, then you must admit NFTs can be appreciated as art. If so, the argument of the OP is refuted. If you think art can be appreciated without being an NFT, then why pay any amount of money for any physical art when a super high resolution PNG does the same thing?

> If you disagree, then you must admit NFTs can be appreciated as art. If so, the argument of the OP is refuted. This seems to be an object/reference mistake: NFTs (as we've been repeatedly told) are tokenizations of an asset, not the asset itself. You can tokenize anything, so of course there exist things represented by NFTs that are themselves are. But NFTs themselves? They're not art, at least not until the Andy W…

Can you do ascii art in 256 bits?

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#86

> Claim 2: Blockchain technology has no non-monetary applications (Confidence: High) I would replace "non-monetery" with "non-financial". I think it's a perfectly reasonable (albeit, imperfect) solution as a ledger and exchange mechanism for new financial assets.

What about just non-repudiation? Proving a logfile, or evidence, etc, is from before a certain date and hasn't been tampered with?

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#87
I seriously wonder if you can create a digital currency that can effectively be anything other than commodity money. That is, I don't know if you can truly create a logical, mechanical system that permits all of the following: the creation of a fiat currency, the allowance of credit and debt, an autonomous system that cannot be controlled by actors like central banks, and transactional privacy.

I believe some of these things are in direct contradiction to each other and there just isn't exactly a wide amount of academic discussion going on about it that I've been exposed to.

And what's interesting to me is that if you did effectively create such a system, how would it manifest in usage? If there isn't a digital gold rush, or a speculative aspect to its consumption, well ran monetary systems from established governments give you few reasons to utilize it.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Banks won’t protect you from wire fraud either. I’ve written this elsewhere when this topic routinely comes up and crypto is dismissed, but the capability of self-custody is the thing to pay attention to. Nothing else has this capability to the same extent. Today we store most of our wealth in assets (market index funds, stocks, real estate, etc.) and some (typically very little, and rarely outside of a bank account)…

> Banks won’t protect you from wire fraud. They will if you didn't initiate the wire. If you typed the wrong account number then you are SOL, but that's true of BTC too.

I am a person who wired ~15K to wrong bank account outside US, I only realized after got notification that money was not received it was days later, reversing wire was straight forward and took if not mistaken a week to process, while requesting to reverse transaction branch manager warned me that on another end bank might refuse to reverse transaction and then this money would be lost forever.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#89

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

Banks won’t protect you from wire fraud either. I’ve written this elsewhere when this topic routinely comes up and crypto is dismissed, but the capability of self-custody is the thing to pay attention to. Nothing else has this capability to the same extent. Today we store most of our wealth in assets (market index funds, stocks, real estate, etc.) and some (typically very little, and rarely outside of a bank account)…

This is typical crypto-hype.

Notice that although many points are raised, it doesn’t address the direct objections of the previous post.

Obfuscate, misdirect, and confuse the marks.

Re: Crypto is an unproductive bubble

#90
post #30

One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact (with the only exception being costly forks of the entire ledger), and there's no additional human oversight (like I'd get when sending a large amount of money through a bank) to protect me. If someone steals my credit card, I have my credit card company to give me some level of protection. They can block transactions if…

> One of the biggest drawbacks for blockchain is that transactions can't be revoked after the fact You can transfer money to an escrow smart contract that reverts the transaction if a third party confirms malicious activity. > They can block transactions if they think it's stolen, and if I report it as stolen I can claw back money from fraudulent purchases. Certain DLTs allow you to secure your account with SSI/DPKI…

I think what a lot of people miss is that cryptocurrencies are different than blockchains. But also that cryptocurrencies can both work exactly like modern money (opposed to cash) but that this system is still new (e.g. DeFi: Decentralized Finance). Not only can you do smart contract escrows, but there's nothing stopping anyone from doing DeFi and having the exact same functionality as a credit card. You can also take out loans. You can invest. You can have clawbacks and credit lines. All that already exists in DeFi. Though there are also other people that think crypto/bc can work without a judicial system in place. Maybe, but probably not. Tech doesn't solve everything nor can it. People are also "solving" problems that aren't problems with tech (or creating new ones). But that's an age old story and not limited to cryptocurrencies.

There's also other things that even make it attractive for governments and financial institutions. E.g. you can use transaction fees as a form of consumption tax (especially valuable if you're the world's reserve currency or that of a major area). Through a country cryptocurrency you could set a federal consumption tax (providing a new and difficult to avoid revenue stream), give everyone free access to banking (wallets), make buying treasury bonds trivial, and other modern things that most of us take for granted but not everyone has access to (5.4% of Americans are unbanked). This would have the potential to simplify taxes but could equally complicate them. Hell, the Fed Reserve could pre-mine coins (for fast transactions and low environmental impact) and even offer interest on wallets through POS. These things could be beneficial.

Also one thing that makes it attractive to governments is that you have the ability to track every transaction, making it a data rich environment. This is an extreme authoritarian route although could make for simple return free filing and "stop terrorists and criminals" (I'm not bullish on that). Though personally I hope it doesn't go this route and we have ZKP transactions (i.e. anonymous like cash). Personally I don't think the gov should see that grandma gave me lunch money. Most cryptocurrencies aren't anonymous/private (not what the crypto stands for), despite what is common belief. I, unfortunately, think that this is a big reason large financial institutions and governments are interested.

But definitely agree on this being full of speculation and uncertainty. There are also plenty of people creating scams and abusing the systems. But just because a big part of the ecosystem is corrupt doesn't mean the underlying technology is useless. To determine that we'll have to wait and see, but there has been shown at least the potential for utility. I'm not trying to say that cryptocurrencies are going to be the future. I'm just also saying that there's reasons that smart people are attracted to the idea other than scams. But that also doesn't mean the ideas will work out.

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