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US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

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Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#61

Post by gruez »

pengaru wrote: post #3
bell-cot wrote: post #2

Hmm...buses that (per the article) cost 2x or 3x what diesel ones would. From a company that's raising a whole lotta $$$ from VC's. And (plausibly) school districts will get rid of their old diesel bus fleets when they switch over... Is anyone else suspecting an "of course we'll loose money like crazy, until we hit 'em with the massive price increase" business model? EDIT: Wow, huge response. 3 points to add: - Yes,…

The "subscribed" buses will be privately owned and operated, they'll be increasingly filled with advertising and other predatory bullshit for exploiting the passengers.

>they'll be increasingly filled with advertising and other predatory bullshit for exploiting the passengers

What's this based on ? AFAIK many school districts already contract out their school bus service. Are we seeing that in those cases?

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#62

Post by aaronax »

sanp wrote: post #14

I still don't get that TCO for EV is higher than Diesel. On the consumer side, let's look at Tesla Model Y vs. Lexus RX 350. I am using "premium" makes on both sides of this equations. If we want to go with a cheaper ICE then it should be compared with a cheaper EV. Idea being, there is a reasonable comparison where EV comes out ahead on TCO. Cost / mile: $0.04 vs. $0.10 Difference in purchase cost: $55K (base model…

I guess you have shown that in the luxury segment the TCO comes out better for EVs. Many people are not buying $50k+ luxury vehicles. Care to run an estimate for something like what I was buying a year ago? I was in the market for a loaded 5 year old vehicle with 60-80k miles for $10-13k (Dodge Dart for example, also liked a few Ford Fusion options). There were options like this available, though I happened to stumble upon the apocryphal 13 year old 175k miles $1,000 Honda and went with that.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#63

Post by gruez »

roywiggins wrote: post #27
woodruffw wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's pretty unlikely, at least with schoolbuses. The US has laws around child privacy and advertising that companies easily flaunt online, but are much more difficult to flaunt when your product is a physical bus. OTOH, I would not be surprised to see these buses rusting in a storage lot within a decade because these firms have closed up shop and some random server somewhere is no longer responding to reque…

In the '90s the dairy industry managed to get "got milk" posters into approximately every US elementary school.

Was that through private businesses, or through the government?

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#64

Post by jtlienwis »

bsder wrote: post #31
fasteddie31003 wrote: post #15

I believe batteries and electric motors can replace almost all applications of gas engines. However, diesel engines still are a step too far now IMO. Most people have never operated a diesel engine. Their efficiency is very impressive. My 7,000 lbs truck with a Cummins diesel engine gets better MPGs than my partner's 4,000 lbs Mini Cooper Countryman.

Except that a school bus tends to operate a diesel in its worst conditions. Lots of idling. Lots of low RPM operation. Lots of stop and start wasting a lot of energy into the brakes. A school bus is practically engineered to be an EV propaganda piece.

How much will they weigh compared to a Diesel bus? Road damage is to the fourth power of axle weight. Any cost savings may be just shifted to the road department for fixing pot holes. I think the VW EV is almost twice the weight of a same size ICE car. 16x the road damage. Plus, how much damage when this EV bus slides on the ice and hits something? Twice the damage if twice the weight.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#65

Post by itsoktocry »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #24
bell-cot wrote: post #2

Hmm...buses that (per the article) cost 2x or 3x what diesel ones would. From a company that's raising a whole lotta $$$ from VC's. And (plausibly) school districts will get rid of their old diesel bus fleets when they switch over... Is anyone else suspecting an "of course we'll loose money like crazy, until we hit 'em with the massive price increase" business model? EDIT: Wow, huge response. 3 points to add: - Yes,…

This is a fairly standard reframing when your product has lower TCO but higher upfront costs. If people just look at the upfront cost, they have that 2x or 3x gut reaction and just switch off. Some nerdier types might draw up a spreadsheet and know exactly how many months they'd expect to break even and start saving. People familiar with spreadsheets probably also don't have that much trouble getting loans and paying…

>This is a fairly standard reframing when your product has lower TCO but higher upfront costs.

I'd say it's the opposite a lot of times. EVs are one such product. People will say, "sure I'm paying 20k more for the car, but I'll make it up in fuel savings and zero maintenance!" without ever calculating how much fuel and maintenance you'd actually have to use to break even. Then, of course, there is the regulatory and temporal risk that energy costs today aren't what they might be down the road, and that there are some high-ticket items an EV can have fail itself.

It's hardly ever a no-brainer, because the invisible hand tends to make it so.

>People have sold rooftop solar this way

So many companies have gone bust because of this.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#66

Post by ElevenLathe »

These services are already outsourced in many school districts, with the district doing nothing more than contracting out for certain service levels and writing a check. Presumably if it pencils out, those contractors will switch to electric without even needing to consult the board of education.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#67

Post by [deleted] »

pengaru wrote: post #3
bell-cot wrote: post #2

Hmm...buses that (per the article) cost 2x or 3x what diesel ones would. From a company that's raising a whole lotta $$$ from VC's. And (plausibly) school districts will get rid of their old diesel bus fleets when they switch over... Is anyone else suspecting an "of course we'll loose money like crazy, until we hit 'em with the massive price increase" business model? EDIT: Wow, huge response. 3 points to add: - Yes,…

The "subscribed" buses will be privately owned and operated, they'll be increasingly filled with advertising and other predatory bullshit for exploiting the passengers.

[deleted]

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#68

Post by jws »

speedgoose wrote: post #50
elihu wrote: post #30

Apparently there's an important patent on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that expires next month (on April 27th). I'm hoping that changes the economics on batteries and that LFPs become cheap and abundant, and widely available from a variety of manufacturers that aren't located in China. LFP seems like the obvious choice for large vehicles like buses unless there's some reason to really need to optimize for r…

Is safety a criteria for school bus in USA? I thought it was only cost since the design is from the last century and many bus don’t even have seatbelts.

The NHTSA recognizes that large busses are not cars and use a different solution.

Large school buses are heavier and distribute crash forces differently than passenger cars and light trucks do. Because of these differences, bus passengers experience much less crash force than those in passenger cars, light trucks, and vans.

NHTSA decided the best way to provide crash protection to passengers of large school buses is through a concept called “compartmentalization.” This requires that the interior of large buses protect children without them needing to buckle up. Through compartmentalization, children are protected from crashes by strong, closely-spaced seats that have energy-absorbing seat backs.

Statistics bear this out, taking a school bus to school is about 70 times more likely to deliver a student safely. In this context, 70 is huge.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#69

Post by horsawlarway »

xxpor wrote: post #56
speedgoose wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is safety a criteria for school bus in USA? I thought it was only cost since the design is from the last century and many bus don’t even have seatbelts.

Seat belts have been required in some states for decades at this point. We had them on buses when I was in elementary school 20 years ago, in NJ. Now... getting kids to actually use them is a different matter.

In many of the most common situations - they just don't matter that much on a school bus.

The bus is generally the largest vehicle on the road, and an impact from a car (or even pickup truck/suv) is unlikely to significantly move the bus. Plus - the sit very high, and impacts tend to drive the other vehicle down - rather than moving the body of the bus.

The only situation they really are useful is when the bus rolls, and for buses that aren't driving highway speeds (which is most of them), they almost never roll (the only exception is essentially driver error - where the bus leaves the road on slope)

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#70

Post by clomond »

sanp wrote: post #14

I still don't get that TCO for EV is higher than Diesel. On the consumer side, let's look at Tesla Model Y vs. Lexus RX 350. I am using "premium" makes on both sides of this equations. If we want to go with a cheaper ICE then it should be compared with a cheaper EV. Idea being, there is a reasonable comparison where EV comes out ahead on TCO. Cost / mile: $0.04 vs. $0.10 Difference in purchase cost: $55K (base model…

TCOs for individual consumers will be vastly different depending on the parameters of the situation, with particular impact driven by volume of miles driven annually.

Due to this, commercial fleets in my view have a much clearer picture here than personal vehicle decisions. This is also particularly driven by personal vehicle purchases being driven less by “TCO” in a strict sense but rather “what is my monthly payment”.

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