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US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

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Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#41

Post by ilikeatari »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #38
ilikeatari wrote: post #37

Personally I am very exited about it but we lack data that does allow us to do proper TCO comparison of ICE vs EV on the heavy duty side. Also how does V2G economics actually work if you are trying to optimize for the lowest charging rate (usually during night to avoid peak)? If you are in V2G mode after 6 pm i assume you would need to start charging at night during cheapest rates and assure that the bus is charged b…

> we lack data that does allow us to do proper TCO comparison of ICE vs EV on the heavy duty side These districts have transferred that risk to the provider. Which seems reasonable.

Yes, makes sense from the districts perspective, but I meant from sustainability of the business model perspective.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#42

Post by GauntletWizard »

loudmax wrote: post #20
sockaddr wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While not ideal, the alternative is kids continuing to sit in buses that idle for long periods of time slowly leaking diesel exhaust into the cabin area (at least that was the case with the Bluebird models I rode as a kid), that can't be good.

I think it's important to keep the electrification and subscription aspects distinct. Electrification of bus fleets is an absolute good. Electric buses may cost more in the short run, but for the sake of children's health, not to mention the world they live in, school districts should be dumping diesel in favor of electric as soon as they can afford to do so. As taxpayers we should be ready to foot the bill. There ar…

School bus fleets are already significantly privatized[1]. Not making judgement calls there, just pointing out that ship has sailed.

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Student_(United_States)

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#43

Post by gregshap »

sanp wrote: post #14

I still don't get that TCO for EV is higher than Diesel. On the consumer side, let's look at Tesla Model Y vs. Lexus RX 350. I am using "premium" makes on both sides of this equations. If we want to go with a cheaper ICE then it should be compared with a cheaper EV. Idea being, there is a reasonable comparison where EV comes out ahead on TCO. Cost / mile: $0.04 vs. $0.10 Difference in purchase cost: $55K (base model…

Tax credits are dollar for dollar reduction in taxes owed. There's no reason to apply a marginal tax rate.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#44

Post by AlgorithmicTime »

pengaru wrote: post #3
bell-cot wrote: post #2

Hmm...buses that (per the article) cost 2x or 3x what diesel ones would. From a company that's raising a whole lotta $$$ from VC's. And (plausibly) school districts will get rid of their old diesel bus fleets when they switch over... Is anyone else suspecting an "of course we'll loose money like crazy, until we hit 'em with the massive price increase" business model? EDIT: Wow, huge response. 3 points to add: - Yes,…

The "subscribed" buses will be privately owned and operated, they'll be increasingly filled with advertising and other predatory bullshit for exploiting the passengers.

Literally all the school buses in my area are operated by private companies which contract with the local public school districts. None of them are full of advertising.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#45

Post by elliekelly »

pengaru wrote: post #3
bell-cot wrote: post #2

Hmm...buses that (per the article) cost 2x or 3x what diesel ones would. From a company that's raising a whole lotta $$$ from VC's. And (plausibly) school districts will get rid of their old diesel bus fleets when they switch over... Is anyone else suspecting an "of course we'll loose money like crazy, until we hit 'em with the massive price increase" business model? EDIT: Wow, huge response. 3 points to add: - Yes,…

The "subscribed" buses will be privately owned and operated, they'll be increasingly filled with advertising and other predatory bullshit for exploiting the passengers.

“You’re only two bus rides away from your next Robux reward!”

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#46

Post by danans »

ilikeatari wrote: post #32
danans wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most people have never operated a diesel engine. Their efficiency is very impressive. All else equal (vehicle class, size, performance, driving style), the operating cost per mile of an EV is 1/4 to 1/2 the operating cost per mile of a diesel or gasoline vehicle, even in states with very expensive electricity like California or Hawaii.

Is there a specific data set you are referencing? How about other components like Ownership and Support?

I've just done the math on my car operating costs. At today's gas prices (admittedly high due to the Ukraine war), the price of electricity in CA would have to more than triple for me to pay the same as I would for gas. Before the recent gas price spike it was like 2.25X to use gas.

> How about other components like Ownership and Support?

Do you mean depreciation and maintenance? Depreciation on recent EVs has been just like other types of vehicles in their respective classes. Granted, these are relatively new cars - there isn't much longitudinal data on EV maintenance, but every indication is that it should be less than ICE vehicles.

And can you put a price on the great driving experience of an EV (flat power curve, low center of gravity, silent, no combustion smell)? Probably, but I haven't tried.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#47

Post by adgjlsfhk1 »

Johnny555 wrote: post #19
woodruffw wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that's pretty unlikely, at least with schoolbuses. The US has laws around child privacy and advertising that companies easily flaunt online, but are much more difficult to flaunt when your product is a physical bus. OTOH, I would not be surprised to see these buses rusting in a storage lot within a decade because these firms have closed up shop and some random server somewhere is no longer responding to reque…

The average lifetime of a schoolbus is 10 - 12 years, so if they do manage to keep this service going for a decade, that's pretty good -- in 10 years the schol district would have been ready to refresh their fleet anyway, and hopefully the reason this business can't survive long-term is that electric buses become cheaper and ubiquitous.

Part of the reason for the 10-12 year lifespan is that ICE motors are really complicated and at a certain point, it's cheaper to throw out the bus than pay for motor repairs. EV motors last a lot longer and are a lot easier to maintain.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#48

Post by Animats »

bsder wrote: post #31
fasteddie31003 wrote: post #15

I believe batteries and electric motors can replace almost all applications of gas engines. However, diesel engines still are a step too far now IMO. Most people have never operated a diesel engine. Their efficiency is very impressive. My 7,000 lbs truck with a Cummins diesel engine gets better MPGs than my partner's 4,000 lbs Mini Cooper Countryman.

Except that a school bus tends to operate a diesel in its worst conditions. Lots of idling. Lots of low RPM operation. Lots of stop and start wasting a lot of energy into the brakes. A school bus is practically engineered to be an EV propaganda piece.

Right. Plus it travels a known number of miles per day, and recharges at the same place each day.

(Although, field trips?)

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#49

Post by cpwright »

ZeroGravitas wrote: post #24
bell-cot wrote: post #2

Hmm...buses that (per the article) cost 2x or 3x what diesel ones would. From a company that's raising a whole lotta $$$ from VC's. And (plausibly) school districts will get rid of their old diesel bus fleets when they switch over... Is anyone else suspecting an "of course we'll loose money like crazy, until we hit 'em with the massive price increase" business model? EDIT: Wow, huge response. 3 points to add: - Yes,…

This is a fairly standard reframing when your product has lower TCO but higher upfront costs. If people just look at the upfront cost, they have that 2x or 3x gut reaction and just switch off. Some nerdier types might draw up a spreadsheet and know exactly how many months they'd expect to break even and start saving. People familiar with spreadsheets probably also don't have that much trouble getting loans and paying…

I'm not sure why you would assume that the average school bus buyer can't do a spreadsheet. Our local suburban NY school district is fairly run-of-the mill, and has a budget of $84 million with several million dollars of that being for transportation. We have our own busses and drivers, and they spend about a quarter million dollars a year on diesel fuel.

The Superintendent for business affairs that has an MBA from Columbia and earns $231,000, and should clearly be able to handle a spreadsheet and then making the yearly powerpoint presentations.

Re: US schools can subscribe to an electric bus fleet at lower prices than diesel

#50

Post by speedgoose »

elihu wrote: post #30

Apparently there's an important patent on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries that expires next month (on April 27th). I'm hoping that changes the economics on batteries and that LFPs become cheap and abundant, and widely available from a variety of manufacturers that aren't located in China. LFP seems like the obvious choice for large vehicles like buses unless there's some reason to really need to optimize for r…

Is safety a criteria for school bus in USA? I thought it was only cost since the design is from the last century and many bus don’t even have seatbelts.
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