How Zillow's homebuying scheme lost $881M

Zillow's estimates of home values in my area have consistently been 150% of actual prices, as far as I've seen over the past years. Not that I've looked that closely and given that this is a hard area for them with low sales and a broad range of values for reasons not easy for their algorithms to quantify.

However, I always took that to be intentional, sort of a "see how valuable your home is / how high the values are where you're looking at"; hype that cost them nothing but made everyone feel better. Did the person that set that "glamor bonus" fudge factor get fired or just wasn't allowed to talk to the team deciding offer prices?

Mine is pretty accurate ($2.5M), based on recent sales and a couple of solicitations from realtor friends.

FWIW, we have had a high frequency of home sales in the past year, so that might help. I just looked up my previous house (sold 5 years ago), and Zillow is saying $740K, which I am pretty sure is massively overvalued, however the street it is on, and general area, have a fairly low turnover, so less recent data.

I recently bought a home. We toured a Zillow home, and I can understand what they were going for and where they failed.

We were able to pull up to the driveway, book a tour for that minute, and walk in the front door. It was almost a magical experience compared to the process of finding and going to showings. The listings were clear and thorough. The experience was extremely compelling.

The downside: the homes were absurdly overpriced. I bought a home for about 10% less than the last Zillow listing. For less, I got three times the land, 40% more square footage, a better location, updated appliances, new carpets, landscaped back yard, horseshoe driveway, two car garage. Almost zero effort had been put into modernizing the Zillow home and it showed.

I suspect if I had come in with a very low offer, they'd have accepted it. But for what?

If I was Zillow, I'd have licensed the tech to realtors. I'd definitely be inclined to buy a home through them if they weren't the ones selling the property directly.

I am especially annoyed at Zillow SF holding "Data Science" meetups in San Francisco at the penthouse place, while advertising for TWO data science positions.. meanwhile, frat guys are at the golf course by the dozens, across three states. The people that they hired at that time, probably built this setup exactly as required by the frat guys. Happy banking Zillow!

The author has a valid point in that the information asymmetry will attract sellers whose property is overvalued to sell to Zillow. I suspect though that something different happened in reality. I live in a 70 unit condo building, so there are a lot of very good comparables. Zillow bought one of the units about 10% over market value, which makes me think that they're doing some sort of market manipulation, like charging a 20% fee that is not part of the real estate record. So they wanted to pump up prices, but it didn't work.