Earlier quoted context omitted.
They're just being honest. If a company sells for $150mm, and you have 1%, and there has been $20-40mm in financing (i.e. certainly not a great outcome for later investors, but ok for early), it's possible your equity will be worth $0 (due to preference), or maybe $200-300k. The odds of the company going from early to this are maybe 20%. Getting 1% isn't all that common either; 0.1% is a lot more likely unless you're…
I'm afraid we're getting off on a tangent on this thread, but your math is correct, and I agree with your probabilities. > As an employee, what I'd want from a prospective employer is full visibility into the financials/cap table, and help running through various assumptions about the future. Misleading people about the value of compensation, up or down, isn't reasonable. I think that's the crux of it. Most startups…
If your startup is a rocket with no problems, either approach works, but if it gets bumpy, having cash extends your runway, and helps you retain key people better than increasing amounts of declining stock.
Plus, having investors put more cash in keeps them motivated to help you longer, sort of like an author's book advance.
There is definitely under appreciated value to being "rich" in your 20s; driving a nice car, living in a nice place that you like, being able to go out to eat... and it really only takes making a marginal extra 10-20k to make a big difference.