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US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

theguardian.com

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Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#541

Post by MisterMower »

CPLX wrote: post #512
e4e78a06 wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well I think a big contributor to the current inflation problem was the last round of stimulus passed right as the pandemic was starting to wind down. At that point unemployment numbers had almost gotten back to normal and most revenue numbers for things like restaurants, travel, etc. had recovered to at least 70% of pre-pandemic levels. And then some states like California dumped even more money into the economy thr…

> a lot of people that just dumped their stimulus checks on memecoins or wasted it buying spurious goods By contrast, when the Bush tax cuts were passed all that money was used for tasteful, ethical spending

At least those tax cuts were on income, by definition money earned through productive activity.

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#542

Post by SantalBlush »

MisterMower wrote: post #538
CPLX wrote: post #469

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean it did make everyone better. The COVID pandemic could have really wiped out a lot of people and we printed money and it helped. It’s the austerity people that have never cared about anything but their ideology. Austerity for austerity’s sake has caused unfathomable human misery in the globalization era. Right now the labor market is good for workers. That is good. Getting there has always opposed by the ruling…

“I mean it did make everyone better. The COVID pandemic could have really wiped out a lot of people and we printed money and it helped.” Well, let’s see: 1. I got maybe $3k from the government due to all that printing. 2. The price level is easily up 25% for things I need to buy, like food, fuel, computing equipment, and vehicles. 3. And I still got Covid, as did literally everyone else I know. My brother still can’t…

I did, in fact, laugh out loud at this. Did you think those personal checks were meant to prevent you from getting COVID?

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#543

Post by analyte123 »

e4e78a06 wrote: post #489
lazide wrote: post #483

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compared to a Great Depression type cycle in the middle of the pandemic, what is the other alternative?

Well I think a big contributor to the current inflation problem was the last round of stimulus passed right as the pandemic was starting to wind down. At that point unemployment numbers had almost gotten back to normal and most revenue numbers for things like restaurants, travel, etc. had recovered to at least 70% of pre-pandemic levels. And then some states like California dumped even more money into the economy thr…

Don't forget that nobody has had to pay student loans for two years.

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#544

Post by spiralx »

chrisco255 wrote: post #443
andreyk wrote: post #137

An interesting aspect of this is that the endless printing of money in the last few years was a sort of stress test of modern monetary theory, which has been seeing lots of discussion in those same years. I never quite understood how this theory would work while avoiding inflation, and what's happening now seems to at least be related - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/06/business/economy/modern-m... Conceptually the…

MMT has all the same problems as Communism: nice in theory, but terrible in practice. MMT proponents will argue that no one has ever properly implemented it. However, an economic theory that is not effective in practice, given the realistic constraints of human nature and politics, is useless. In theory the only way MMT works is to arbitrarily raise taxes to counter inflation. The Fed does not have the power to raise…

It's like the anthropic principle in physics IMO in that it can be taken either descriptively or prescriptively, and while the former is almost trivial in what it describes, the latter invariably ends up leading to significant consequences far beyond the initial description.

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#545

Post by kcb »

UncleOxidant wrote: post #275
lvl102 wrote: post #270

Higher rates won’t impact US as much as they will impact emerging economies. Those countries will face food crisis in addition to rapidly rising debt costs. Keep an eye on this because we are on cusp of civil unrests across the globe.

War in Ukraine will have a much larger effect. Something like ~25% of global wheat supply comes from Ukraine and Russia. There won't be any planting to speak of in Ukraine this spring. And Russian wheat is pretty much off the world market.

> Something like ~25% of global wheat supply comes from Ukraine and Russia

Global wheat exports not supply. Global wheat exports is a relatively small proportion of overall global wheat production.

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#546

Post by lazide »

analyte123 wrote: post #543
e4e78a06 wrote: post #489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well I think a big contributor to the current inflation problem was the last round of stimulus passed right as the pandemic was starting to wind down. At that point unemployment numbers had almost gotten back to normal and most revenue numbers for things like restaurants, travel, etc. had recovered to at least 70% of pre-pandemic levels. And then some states like California dumped even more money into the economy thr…

Don't forget that nobody has had to pay student loans for two years.

Also a lot of rent forgiveness too!

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#547

Post by silisili »

mikeyouse wrote: post #493
boppo1 wrote: post #292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> BlackRock bought what, 10-15% of the houses sold in 2020 Is this official somewhere? I've seen it in headlines and heard it in soundbytes but did they disclose it in their 10k or something?

It's been debunked over and over again, but it's an attractive sound bite with a clear bogeyman, so of course it "sticks". https://www.vox.com/22524829/wall-street-housing-market-blac...

It's not debunked, you're playing with stats.

The claim is that investors are buying nearly 20 percent of housing. Your refutal is that they only own 1%.

Both can be, and are, true.

"A record 18.2 percent of all home purchases were made by investors during the third quarter of 2021, according to a new report by Redfin. That was up from 16.1 percent during the second quarter of 2021 and up 11.2 percent from the third quarter of 2020."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/12/01/buyer-dem...

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#548

Post by hervature »

SantalBlush wrote: post #542
MisterMower wrote: post #538

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“I mean it did make everyone better. The COVID pandemic could have really wiped out a lot of people and we printed money and it helped.” Well, let’s see: 1. I got maybe $3k from the government due to all that printing. 2. The price level is easily up 25% for things I need to buy, like food, fuel, computing equipment, and vehicles. 3. And I still got Covid, as did literally everyone else I know. My brother still can’t…

I did, in fact, laugh out loud at this. Did you think those personal checks were meant to prevent you from getting COVID?

Do you have so little respect of your fellow man that you think they are incapable of thinking? A big part of the spending was designed to float businesses during lockdowns to “flatten the curve”. The idea being that paying people to stay home would reduce risk of infection. They are pointing out this outcome did not happen.

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#549

Post by kcb »

nebula8804 wrote: post #495
lotsofpulp wrote: post #488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> (ie. You now have to pay an additional tax on more than 600$ worth of ebay sales. This was snuck into the relief bill.) No, that is not a recent addition to tax liabilities. You have always had to pay tax on income. The only difference is eBay (and other facilitators) are required to report it now.

Its still closing a unofficial loophole that lower income people relied on. That counts as part of the war to extract every last penny on the poor. There are a lot of other nefarious things in the bill such as requiring manufacturers to install a device to monitor the driver if they are impaired(beyond 2026). This will lead to fines that will lead to further eroding of what little wealth the poor already have left. W…

It's not a loophole it's tax fraud. Not reporting your income does not make it legal. In the end if your income is low enough you'll mostly be offset by the standard deduction anyway.

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#550

Post by mtremsal »

avrionov wrote: post #219
mtremsal wrote: post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Which may have a bigger effect. Could you please explain? Isn't that just a way to "enforce" the target rate in auctions to the primary market?

Here is a good explanation: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2021/07/15/what-does... The federal reserves buys bonds / treasures and mortgage backed securities. It has an effect on long term interest rates and mortgages (keeping the interests low).

I see. Thank you. I thought these purchases had stopped years ago when in fact the balance has never been higher.
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