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US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

theguardian.com

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Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#531
post #527

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Never said TCJA or the Bush era tax cuts were used for good purposes :) but it's probably better for the country in the long run to have excess money flowing into tech VC funds rather than being spent on memecoins and shitty electronics. That way maybe 1% of the funds will have positive returns rather than all of it being set on fire.

> better for the country in the long run to have excess money flowing into tech VC funds rather than being spent on memecoins and shitty electronics Why

I'm just saying in the absence of any alternatives (which I'm sure there are), it's better to have 1% of trillions of dollars going towards advancing humanity and technology than 0%. I am fully aware that 99% of that money is going to be burned on WeWorks and the like.

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#532
post #283

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The bond market is doing the rate cuts for them. Can you elaborate? I don't understand.

I am not the person you are replying to, but perhaps the cleanest indication of what "the bond market" "thinks" is to look at the Eurodollar futures quotes at https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/stirs/eurodo... It is hard to define exactly what a "Eurodollar" is, but for now assume that a Eurodollar is a bank deposit in a jurisdiction not subject to the Fed's authority. ("Eurodollar" has nothing to do wit…

Thank you for this. I learned something new today. Any books/websites you could recommend to learn more about this sort of stuff?

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#533
post #508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's always different this time, until it's not. Foreclosure rates aren't high today, but the people who bought extremely expensive houses did so just this year and last. Demand for homes is very high, in large part because hedge funds are buying lots of them... if rates rise, or if prices stabilize, they will pull out, decreasing demand significantly. And will migration to smaller cities/towns continue unabated, (if…

> And will migration to smaller cities/towns continue unabated, (if you haven't moved to Austin/Vegas/Idaho/Montana yet, when do you plan to??) or will that reverse as companies want a physical presence again? Moved to Alaska last year. Not going back to city life - remote forever :)

That's my point... you already moved. Will the same number of people migrate to Alaska in 2023 as moved in 2021?

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#534
post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Except for the multiple decades post-WW2 with Bretton Woods. Um, what? The Bretton Woods agreement was part of "the fiat currency situation we now find ourselves in" (just an earlier stage of it where the government was still trying to pretend to some sort of "linkage" with gold, instead of just dropping the pretense altogether as was done in the early 1970s when Bretton Woods fell apart). No US money was backed by…

> Um, what? The Bretton Woods agreement was part of "the fiat currency situation we now find ourselves in" (just an earlier stage of it where the government was still trying to pretend to some sort of "linkage" with gold, If USD was not linked to gold, why was a multi-country agreement needed to change the value of the US dollar to gold? * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smithsonian_Agreement > To call the monetary reg…

> why was a multi-country agreement needed to change the value of the US dollar to gold?

By that time, as the article you linked to notes, redemption of US dollars to gold at $35 per ounce had already been suspended by Nixon. I was in error before when I said there had not been any such redemption possible since the FDR administration suspended it in 1933; Bretton Woods did re-establish that in 1944 (though IIRC it was at a different conversion rate than before 1933, so it was effectively a devaluation of the dollar).

The Smithsonian Agreement itself was about exchange rates of other currencies relative to the dollar; it was made because those other countries realized that the US had already gone off the gold standard (when Nixon suspended redemption), and they were trying to make the best out of the situation that they could.

> This limitation was one of the contributing factors of turning a market crash and economic downturn into deflation and the Great Depression. See James and Bernanke (1991)

While this might be true given that the Fed had already been given the power to manipulate the money supply, that does not mean it would not have been better still to not manipulate the money supply at all, and for the government to have simply done nothing after the stock market crash of 1929--as it did after market crashes in 1920 and 1987, neither of which led to prolonged recession or depression.

As for the more general point that printing money and "pumping" it into an economy can generate economic activity, that is of course true, but that does not mean doing that is the best way to generate economic activity. Moreover, being forced to do it in response to a crisis that was caused by government interference in the economy to begin with, which has been the case in every instance I'm aware of where fiat money or paper currency was involved, is not a good argument for it being a good idea.

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#535

An interesting aspect of this is that the endless printing of money in the last few years was a sort of stress test of modern monetary theory, which has been seeing lots of discussion in those same years. I never quite understood how this theory would work while avoiding inflation, and what's happening now seems to at least be related - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/06/business/economy/modern-m... Conceptually the…

> how this theory would work while avoiding inflation

That is a puzzler, until one realizes it did cause inflation, which was offset by the deflation from the banking collapse.

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#536
post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Except for the multiple decades post-WW2 with Bretton Woods. Um, what? The Bretton Woods agreement was part of "the fiat currency situation we now find ourselves in" (just an earlier stage of it where the government was still trying to pretend to some sort of "linkage" with gold, instead of just dropping the pretense altogether as was done in the early 1970s when Bretton Woods fell apart). No US money was backed by…

> Um, what? The Bretton Woods agreement was part of "the fiat currency situation we now find ourselves in" (just an earlier stage of it where the government was still trying to pretend to some sort of "linkage" with gold, If USD was not linked to gold, why was a multi-country agreement needed to change the value of the US dollar to gold? * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smithsonian_Agreement > To call the monetary reg…

For a different take on types of money and the money supply, here is an article by David Friedman:

https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa017.pdf

Note in particular this at the end of the section on fractional reserve money:

> Before leaving the subject of fractional reserve systems, I should mention one particularly bizarre variant -- a fractional reserve system based on fiat money. I call it bizarre because the essential function of a fractional reserve system is to reduce the resource cost of producing money, by allowing an ounce of reserves to replace, say, five ounces of currency. The resource cost of producing fiat money is zero; more precisely, it costs no more to print a five- dollar bill than a one-dollar bill, so the cost of having a larger number of dollars in circulation is zero. The cost of having more bills in circulation is not zero but small. A fractional reserve system based on fiat money thus economizes on the cost of producing something that costs nothing to produce; it adds the disadvantages of a fractional reserve system to the disadvantages of a fiat system without adding any corresponding advantages. It makes sense only as a discreet way of transferring some of the income that the government receives from producing money to the banking system, and is worth mentioning at all only because it is the system presently in use in this country.

(By "this country" he means the US, although the US is not the only country with such a system.)

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#537
post #445

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "uninhabited farmland" is just an analogy for some area of the economic landscape that when you spend money on it, can absorb labor and return a tangible benefit that is equal or more than what you spend. Maybe for example repairing worn out infrastructure or creating new infrastructure. >The vast majority of the money the Fed prints goes to financial institutions You maybe thinking of Quantitative Easing. In whi…

> The "uninhabited farmland" is just an analogy for some area of the economic landscape that when you spend money on it, can absorb labor and return a tangible benefit that is equal or more than what you spend. Such areas aren't doled out by the government. They're invented by entrepreneurs. Your "uninhabited land" analogy obscures that vital point since uninhabited land is not invented, it's already there. > Maybe f…

For a reference taking a similar viewpoint to the one I give here, see this post of mine downthread:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30707008

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#538
post #469
post #303

Earlier quoted context omitted.

An important point to keep in mind when talking about MMT in a policy setting is that the people who will implement it don't care about theory and will make a series of short-term politically expedient and/or vaguely corrupt decisions. If they implement MMT, there are good odds that it will just look like money printing. It doesn't really matter what the academic plan is, the policy isn't going to follow it. Much lik…

I mean it did make everyone better. The COVID pandemic could have really wiped out a lot of people and we printed money and it helped. It’s the austerity people that have never cared about anything but their ideology. Austerity for austerity’s sake has caused unfathomable human misery in the globalization era. Right now the labor market is good for workers. That is good. Getting there has always opposed by the ruling…

“I mean it did make everyone better. The COVID pandemic could have really wiped out a lot of people and we printed money and it helped.”

Well, let’s see:

1. I got maybe $3k from the government due to all that printing.

2. The price level is easily up 25% for things I need to buy, like food, fuel, computing equipment, and vehicles.

3. And I still got Covid, as did literally everyone else I know. My brother still can’t taste anything and a guy I work with died.

If that’s what you guys with economics degrees call a win, I will update my priors from “you guys are idiots” to “you guys are a cult that uses math to further the work of Satan.”

Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018

#539

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Fed Funds rate is still the reference for policy but the Fed has been using a new framework called "ample reserves" since the latter part of 2020. See: "How Does the Fed Influence Interest Rates Using Its New Tools?" https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2020/august/how-does-f...

> the Fed has been using a new framework called "ample reserves" since the latter part of 2020 It’s been using an ample reserve regime for much longer than that. The Fed received congressional approval to implement a floor system around 2007 (it had been seeking it since the 80’s, I think), and has used it since the GFC. Are you possibly referring to the average inflation targeting framework?

Indeed I meant 2007, 2020 was the year the reserve requirements were adjust to a zero ratio which I was responding to in the earlier post.
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