Higher rates won’t impact US as much as they will impact emerging economies. Those countries will face food crisis in addition to rapidly rising debt costs. Keep an eye on this because we are on cusp of civil unrests across the globe.
War in Ukraine will have a much larger effect. Something like ~25% of global wheat supply comes from Ukraine and Russia. There won't be any planting to speak of in Ukraine this spring. And Russian wheat is pretty much off the world market.
US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
341–350 of 693 posts
Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
#342Earlier quoted context omitted.
This isn't a rate-hike recession, it's stimulus withdrawal. Rates are at 0.25%. Last time it took 20.00% to stop inflation. We haven't even started. We haven't soft-defaulted on the national debt, so we can't even think about starting. The Ukraine conflict will be dusty history by the time actual rate hikes and an actual rate hike recession come around.
The MMT point is that it isn't clear that the interest rate is what killed inflation. A major cause of inflation in the 70s was the 6x increase in the price of oil. From 1980 to 1986 there was nearly a div by 5 drop.
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/infl...
The first oil crisis didn't hit until October 1973. Look at the month-by-month numbers for 1973:
https://www.inflation.eu/en/inflation-rates/united-states/hi...
The biggest jump was 1.81% in August, 2 months before the oil shock. (Note that this is roughly double the monthly numbers we see now.) There was consistent monthly inflation 0.68%+ from January -> June.
The real reason for the 1970s inflation was Nixon monetizing the debt incurred by our Vietnam hangover, but in true Nixonian fashion, he found an external event to blame it on.
Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
#343Earlier quoted context omitted.
First I have heard of this and quite interesting to learn. Could you explain the difference ? Does this mean they are going to implement the rate increase some point in future ala target ?
As another reply indicated, the Fed doesn't actually set interest rates. That's a common misconception. Instead they purchase and sell treasuries to member banks, such that those banks' balance sheets change in such a way as to make money more or less expensive to trade amongst themselves, which has knock-on effects for consumers. On the other hand, since there's no longer a reserve requirement since the start of cov…
It's not clear cut as to what degree interest rates are exogenous inputs that central banks respond to, but the Fed absolutely does set interest rates, allowing some variability between upper and lower bounds.
Today, Fed adjusted interest on reserve balances (IORB, formerly IOER/IORR) to 40bps from 15bps. This rate determines how much interest banks are paid for reserves kept at the Fed. In theory, this rate acts as a floor for the effective fed funds rate. In practice, it's somewhat murkier.
The Fed also sets the discount rate (now 50bps), which is meant to act as a ceiling on rates. Banks are able to borrow money from the Fed's discount window if they need it; however, there's a stigma associated with utilizing this facility. The Fed now maintains standing repo and reverse repo facilities to help banks manage liquidity.
These policies all target the front end of the yield curve, which is where Fed has the most control. To manipulate the long end of the curve, Fed implemented QE. Other central banks (e.g. BoJ) have gone further, using yield curve control to explicitly impact the term structure.
> Instead they purchase and sell treasuries to member banks, such that those banks' balance sheets change in such a way as to make money more or less expensive to trade amongst themselves, which has knock-on effects for consumers.
Repo rates are determined by the market, but are bounded by the rates at Fed's repo facilities. A catch here is that not all market participants have direct access to these. While repo rates may impact behavior, the Fed's intended mechanism is IORB, which (ignoring steepness of the yield curve) influences how attractive banks find loaning money to clients.
> the mechanism that causes banks to have to borrow from each other (to meet the nightly reserve requirement, historically)
This market used to be the Fed Funds market, which consisted of uncollateralized loans between banks. The fed funds market is basically dead, replaced by the repo market, which is collateralized. IIRC, the remaining participants are GSEs like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which can't collect IORB. They sweep their cash to banks and split the interest (which is why IORB can act as a ceiling instead of a floor).
Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
#344Earlier quoted context omitted.
Yeah, MMT basically asserts that the separation between fiscal and monetary policy is artificial, and that the only real constraint on “fiscal” policy (tax and spending) is monetary effects, not the metaphorical limited purse (“fisc”) that must be filled with revenue and borrowing to allow spending. It is not “Congress can spend willy-nilly” but “Congress needs to stop thinking about fiscal balance and start thinking…
Irrespective of its economic merits, any policy which depends on a competent and upright Congress does not inspire confidence. It feels like it's bound to be one of those "True MMT Hasn't Ever Been Tried (TM)" things.
Congress: 535 ants on a leaf, floating down a river towards a waterfall, with each ant thinking they’re steering.
I share your lack of confidence.
Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
#345Earlier quoted context omitted.
> I never quite understood how this theory would work while avoiding inflation I see this sentiment any time MMT is brought up. I think it shows a misunderstanding of what MMT is saying. While I’ve got my own issues with MMT, it’s always been made clear by MMTers that inflation is an important signal to respect and that you can’t infinitely ‘print’ money due to the constraint of real resources.
You're correct, but I think the problem is that a lot of people who advocate for MMT, don't actually understand it, because many of the pro-MMT people I've talked to really do think you can print money forever . It's not unique to MMT, the same thing happens with plenty of other subjects too.
Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
#346Good thing I didn't come here for informed economic commentary. Now back to the blogosphere.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
If you know more than others do, that's great—but then you should either share some of what you know, so the rest of us can learn, or just accept that people are wrong on the internet. Posting supercilious putdowns doesn't help anything.
https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...
Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
#347Earlier quoted context omitted.
> ...and that the primary risk once the economy reaches full employment is inflation, which seems to be precisely what has happened, no? Certainly, there is inflation. There isn't full employment.
How do you define full employment? The unemployment rate in the USA is currently 3.8%.
Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
#348An interesting aspect of this is that the endless printing of money in the last few years was a sort of stress test of modern monetary theory, which has been seeing lots of discussion in those same years. I never quite understood how this theory would work while avoiding inflation, and what's happening now seems to at least be related - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/06/business/economy/modern-m... Conceptually the…
>>Conceptually the answer in the theory is to suck up the excess money with taxes Govt spending is already 45% of GDP, so there's not much room to increase it more. As for MMT, I think what the MMT crowd doesn't realize is that there's a lot of latent inflation coming. Asset prices and CPI do not go up in tandem. First Asset prices are inflated, then later for the next decade or so, as people slowly make withdrawals…
Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
#349An interesting aspect of this is that the endless printing of money in the last few years was a sort of stress test of modern monetary theory, which has been seeing lots of discussion in those same years. I never quite understood how this theory would work while avoiding inflation, and what's happening now seems to at least be related - https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/06/business/economy/modern-m... Conceptually the…
Here are the first two paragraphs on the MMT Wikipedia article: > Modern Monetary Theory or Modern Money Theory (MMT) is a heterodox[1] macroeconomic theory that describes currency as a public monopoly and unemployment as evidence that a currency monopolist is overly restricting the supply of the financial assets needed to pay taxes and satisfy savings desires.[2][3] MMT is opposed to the mainstream understanding of…
As explanations change, value changes, so anything can be a currency at the level of the individual--in this way, at least for conscious minds, a public monopoly on money is, while possible, morally wrong. It's a form of Marxism.
There's already been a solution the problem of state monopoly on symbolic abstractions for value (money), that started with Bitcoin and has been growing a new global economy since 2009.
Re: US Federal Reserve raises interest rates for first time since 2018
#350Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not 100% sure about cars, but houses were cheaper. Interest rates being higher means that the monthly payment on a given mortgage amount is higher, meaning the house price that an average buyer can afford goes down. Low interest rates mean that people can afford a more expensive house, and that causes prices to go up. Anecdotally, my dad complains about paying an interest rate in the teens for the house I grew up in.…
Also, returns from other investments tied to interest rates were higher. I seem to recall seeing CD rates >10% in the '80s. I know I had a CD paying >6% as late as the mid '90s. This world where basic banking investments are pointless and pay ~0% is a historic anomaly.