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Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

nature.com

41–50 of 149 posts

Re: Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

#41
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Difficult to build housing. For example, Greenland housing shortage is severe: >> These staff residences are important for attracting employees, as the waiting time for a municipal rental property in Nuuk is between 10-12 years for a private individual. https://www.norden.org/en/info-norden/housing-greenland

Why is it difficult to build housing there? There's a housing crisis in most Tier 1 European cities.

There is practically no lumber to harvest.[0]

[0]https://ign.ku.dk/english/about/arboreta/arboretum-greenland...

Re: Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

#42

Pardon my crudity, but is there a reason to not build a bunch of nuclear power plants + carbon suckers powered by electricity?

Because our economy lacks the incentives to do so. This is a solvable problem and it doesn't require new technological breakthroughs but governments do need to put the proper incentives in place.

Re: Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

#43
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The scientists know this. Paleoclimatology is one big part of climatology. But the outcome is the opposite - you should be more scared, since it shows that climate can change massively. That affects things like agriculture or sea level. What would you assume the sea level was, when those plants were alive? For example, with very quick search: "In general, world oceans were about 100 to 200 metres (330 to 660 feet) hi…

I just went looking for a map to see how different coastlines would look with a 200m sea level rise. It's, unsurprisingly, significant!! https://www.floodmap.net/

Certainly significant but that also happens on a massive time scale - the best estimates have us up 0.7 meters in 2100.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-coastline-to-see-up-to-...

Re: Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

#44
post #3

I am not a "denier", I can recognize that anthropomorphic activities are changing the climate over time and we're not prepared to deal with that. But this sort of article annoys me because "on record" represents a nanosecond of geologic time. There are mountains, and plant fossils [1] under the ice at Antartica, so at some point in the geologic record there was little to no ice at all! And no humans likely either, wh…

The first sentence is explicit: “Antarctic sea ice shrank to below 2 million square kilometres this year, the lowest minimum extent since satellite records began 43 years ago”

Re: Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

#45
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just went looking for a map to see how different coastlines would look with a 200m sea level rise. It's, unsurprisingly, significant!! https://www.floodmap.net/

something like only 10 meters is necessary to depopulate large part of Florida (due to loss land and freshwater aquifers) and turn part of central California into a salt marsh and start reducing the USA's most productive farmland.

Good to keep in mind that best estimates right now have sea level rising by less than 0.7 meters through 2100. 10 meters may happen some day but it will be a very slow process.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-coastline-to-see-up-to-...

Re: Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

#46

If the temperature drop becomes inevitable, I wonder if it'd be worthwhile to just colonize Antarctica to make up for the lost landmass elsewhere. Maybe it's time to have more than scientists living there.

There's plenty of land on the already inhabited continents, even if the sea level rises 100 meters. The issues have more to do with how many of our big cities are coastal than the amount of land that will be lost.

Re: Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

#47
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The scientists know this. Paleoclimatology is one big part of climatology. But the outcome is the opposite - you should be more scared, since it shows that climate can change massively. That affects things like agriculture or sea level. What would you assume the sea level was, when those plants were alive? For example, with very quick search: "In general, world oceans were about 100 to 200 metres (330 to 660 feet) hi…

I just went looking for a map to see how different coastlines would look with a 200m sea level rise. It's, unsurprisingly, significant!! https://www.floodmap.net/

This map is weird. I put 20m sea rise and it shows Caspian Sea expanding, roughly doubling its size. But the thing is: Caspian Sea isn't a sea at all, it's a lake (named "sea" only because of its size), not connected to oceans in any way - why would its level rise at all?

Also, it is nice to see that my family home is safe until about 350 meters rise (although it would be located on a small island in that case)

Re: Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

#48
post #3

I am not a "denier", I can recognize that anthropomorphic activities are changing the climate over time and we're not prepared to deal with that. But this sort of article annoys me because "on record" represents a nanosecond of geologic time. There are mountains, and plant fossils [1] under the ice at Antartica, so at some point in the geologic record there was little to no ice at all! And no humans likely either, wh…

I think the main problem here is not necessarily the actual extent of the ice but rather rapid change and how we, people, are dependant on particular climate in particular parts of our planet.

We are all dependant on very fragile balance of various mechanisms that we do not fully understand.

For example, European climate depends very much on the mass of warm water transported by Gulfstream. Europe would be basically north Canada if not for all that warm water and precipitation that comes with it. But we also know that this stream itself depends on the water cooling up north and sinking to complete the cycle. If the water can't cool the cycle will be broken and Europe may suddenly change the climate dramatically at an astonishing rate.

I am not worried about plant and animal life -- these will migrate or adapt. Nature has always found a way in the past.

What I am worried is human toll, masses of people affected by rapid climate change that are unable to fend for themselves.

Re: Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

#49
post #3

I am not a "denier", I can recognize that anthropomorphic activities are changing the climate over time and we're not prepared to deal with that. But this sort of article annoys me because "on record" represents a nanosecond of geologic time. There are mountains, and plant fossils [1] under the ice at Antartica, so at some point in the geologic record there was little to no ice at all! And no humans likely either, wh…

The scientists know this. Paleoclimatology is one big part of climatology. But the outcome is the opposite - you should be more scared, since it shows that climate can change massively. That affects things like agriculture or sea level. What would you assume the sea level was, when those plants were alive? For example, with very quick search: "In general, world oceans were about 100 to 200 metres (330 to 660 feet) hi…

Okay, I'd like to respond to this, "... you should be more scared,"

Can you reason to that position? Here is how I see it, and perhaps that will make my position more clear.

I'm going to die (so are you). Every year, the probability that I'm going to die in the next year goes up bit by bit. I don't expect to read articles that continually harp on "look how close to death you are, are you sure you don't want to eat at Cracker Barrel even ONCE before you die?"

And yet, I'm not anxious about dying. I accept that I cannot live forever and I do everything that I can do to live a long and happy life but there are things that other people do that can kill me. If Russia tosses a nuke into Silicon Valley, I'm dead, if a drunk driver crosses into my lane and crushes my car, I'm dead, if a clot in my bloodstream decides to take out a critical part of my brain, I'm dead. Nothing I can do to prevent that.

Should I be more scared of dying? How about just scared enough to do everything I can do minimize my risks? I am always open to good science that informs me and helps me make good choices about risk with respect to my mortality. I exercise, I don't smoke, I wear my seatbelt, I look both ways when I cross the street, the list goes on.

Unless you haven't been paying attention, the most recent IPCC report basically says, "We're fucked, its gonna happen now no matter what." And that sucks because in an imaginary universe where there was some sort of world government that could tell everybody on the planet what to do and enforce it if they didn't then maybe it wouldn't happen. But we don't live on that planet any more than I live on a planet that can infinitely extend my life, no matter how much I wish it.

So I point out, the planet doesn't care. Big extinction event? No big deal, been there done that, look forward to seeing what the new apex predator looks like kinda not caring.

What is even sadder, is that no credible climate scientist will say "If you do this, you'll avert disaster and it will all be well." Because we AFFECT the climate but we don't know how to CONTROL the climate. That part would require us to take actions, look at the result, and then adjust to figure out what each of the levers does and what sort of pull we might have on it.

I got into a long email discussion with one of IPCC contributors who worked on the clouds aspect of the model. Because the atmosphere is warming, it holds more moisture, and that moisture becomes clouds when you hit the dew point. Clouds can form at all levels of the atmosphere but where they form changes their impact on local weather. The cloud model shows that if we get more clouds in the stratosphere it will increase surface temperatures, if they form in the troposphere the decrease surface temperatures. It was the latter that guided the "nuclear winter" hypothesis. But we haven't gotten there yet so we don't know where they are going to start showing up (and it can be different in different parts of the world). All the science tells is that there is more energy available for things like hurricane and cyclones which are powered by the difference between surface and atmospheric temperatures, and there is more water available for things like clouds and precipitation.

You can play with the current IPCC model, change where the clouds form, and get an ice age. Pretty amazing right? But it represents the limit of our understanding in how things proceed.

But that hasn't stopped any number of groups to weaponize anxiety to encourage action on their particular idea of what's "best." Some are well meaning but others, like the nuclear industry, are really trying to convince folks that you have to start massive reactor projects right now, no matter the cost, to avert calamity. Is that accurate? No. The science says the calamity is locked and loaded. Is it effective at getting more money for nuclear? Absolutely.

"Being scared" and "being anxious" isn't productive (and it reduces your life expectancy to boot!) Being proactive about the things individuals can do is good as long as all good ideas get equal treatment, rather than pushing a single agenda (whether it is nuclear, bicycles, electric cars, or high speed rail).

That is the context of my annoyance at what I see as fear mongering headlines and articles trying to steer resources to one and only one cause.

Re: Antarctic sea ice hits lowest minimum on record

#50
post #25
post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I just went looking for a map to see how different coastlines would look with a 200m sea level rise. It's, unsurprisingly, significant!! https://www.floodmap.net/

Surprisingly if you put it to 20 meters the effect globally seem insignificant. Although 80% of my own country would be flooded, so that's not great.

At 20 meters, the Bay Area, the Central Valley, Los Angeles, and parts of Orange county are significantly impacted.
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