> a message on Navalny's Instagram account said
So, that'll reach zero Russians?
Jailed Navalny calls for anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday
11–20 of 28 posts
Re: Jailed Navalny calls for anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday
#12Serious question. How has this guy not fallen out of his jail cell window? What are the politics that keeps him alive?
A lot of dictators have either propped up a specific opposition. Sometimes the person being propped up knows they're a puppet. Sometimes they don't. I'm not necessarily saying that's what's happening here. But navanly isn't the savior that most russians would back. The really strong and unifying opposition though generally disappears.
Kind of like how Microsoft propped up Apple in the 90s.
Gotta keep an illusion of competitiveness to avoid accumulating too many targets on your back.
Re: Jailed Navalny calls for anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday
#13He's a hero imo
"But on review, Amnesty International concluded that comments made by Navalny some 15 years ago, including a video which appears to compare immigrants to cockroaches, amounted to "hate speech" which was incompatible with the label "prisoner of conscience"."
Re: Jailed Navalny calls for anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday
#14Serious question. How has this guy not fallen out of his jail cell window? What are the politics that keeps him alive?
Putin needs some plausible excuse to scale back his "special operation" without looking like a lightweight or a loser, and big protests throughout Russia would give him just that. So this is a very shrewd move by Navalny that just might work to tip things over, even though you would rightly expect such protests to be generally ineffective.
I agree that Putin could be looking for an excuse to pull back but this doesn't seem like the right one. His story is that Russians support him.
He has to be able to claim some sort of victory that fits with the denazification/liberation/"Ukrainian people love Russia" narratives. Maybe he'll be satisfied to turn Ukraine into cold war Germany with a wall through the middle of Kiev?
But even if he finds a way to pull out and save face, will the sanctions be lifted? I can't see that happening. It's not ok to go blow up your neighbor's cities then just pack up and go home. There would have to be reparations and Putin is clearly never going to agree with that.
Re: Jailed Navalny calls for anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday
#15> a message on Navalny's Instagram account said So, that'll reach zero Russians?
Firstly, Instagram isn't blocked yet. Roskomnadzor has decided to give people some time to prepare. Secondly, at this point everyone knows what a VPN is. Not everyone uses one though. Thirdly, he also obviously has a VKontakte profile[1] but didn't post that particular message there.
edit: he did post it but on his team's page https://vk.com/wall-55284725_1573788
Re: Jailed Navalny calls for anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday
#16Earlier quoted context omitted.
Putin needs some plausible excuse to scale back his "special operation" without looking like a lightweight or a loser, and big protests throughout Russia would give him just that. So this is a very shrewd move by Navalny that just might work to tip things over, even though you would rightly expect such protests to be generally ineffective.
I agree that Putin could be looking for an excuse to pull back but this doesn't seem like the right one. His story is that Russians support him. He has to be able to claim some sort of victory that fits with the denazification/liberation/"Ukrainian people love Russia" narratives. Maybe he'll be satisfied to turn Ukraine into cold war Germany with a wall through the middle of Kiev? But even if he finds a way to pull o…
He could claim "mission accomplished" and have at least a colorable argument that he's right. Reparations could be covertly agreed to and take the form of, e.g. significant liberal/pro-market reforms in both Russia and Ukraine to create a real, workable long-term alternative to NATO and perhaps even EU membership. Think the Chinese development model. That would mean Putin effectively gets the Russian Empire redux he wants, and stops squandering these countries' hidden long-term potential.
Re: Jailed Navalny calls for anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday
#17Serious question. How has this guy not fallen out of his jail cell window? What are the politics that keeps him alive?
Putin needs some plausible excuse to scale back his "special operation" without looking like a lightweight or a loser, and big protests throughout Russia would give him just that. So this is a very shrewd move by Navalny that just might work to tip things over, even though you would rightly expect such protests to be generally ineffective.
This would be a horrible approach, surely. He would give his citizens the precedent that exerting pressure on the regime yields results.
Re: Jailed Navalny calls for anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday
#18Earlier quoted context omitted.
Putin needs some plausible excuse to scale back his "special operation" without looking like a lightweight or a loser, and big protests throughout Russia would give him just that. So this is a very shrewd move by Navalny that just might work to tip things over, even though you would rightly expect such protests to be generally ineffective.
This would be a horrible approach, surely. He would give his citizens the precedent that exerting pressure on the regime yields results.
These are not normal circumstances though, everyone ought to be aware of that. And even then, "exerting pressure" is not the same thing as, e.g. trying to oust Putin. One can very much allow the former and not the latter.
Re: Jailed Navalny calls for anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday
#19He's a hero imo
"But on review, Amnesty International concluded that comments made by Navalny some 15 years ago, including a video which appears to compare immigrants to cockroaches, amounted to "hate speech" which was incompatible with the label "prisoner of conscience"." https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56181084
note to others: there are different levels of asshole. There are those who are bigots and there are those who would murder a nation to assuage his ego, they are usually not the same.
Re: Jailed Navalny calls for anti-war protests across Russia on Sunday
#20Earlier quoted context omitted.
A lot of dictators have either propped up a specific opposition. Sometimes the person being propped up knows they're a puppet. Sometimes they don't. I'm not necessarily saying that's what's happening here. But navanly isn't the savior that most russians would back. The really strong and unifying opposition though generally disappears.
Kind of like how Microsoft propped up Apple in the 90s. Gotta keep an illusion of competitiveness to avoid accumulating too many targets on your back.
They didnt, but they sure build great PR story around it over the years.
Microsoft was involved in a lawsuit after paying one of Apple contractors to steal QuickTime code. "investing" in Apple was part of the settlement.
https://www.theregister.com/1998/10/29/microsoft_paid_apple_...
"David Boies, attorney for the DoJ, noted that John Warden, for Microsoft, had omitted to quote part of a handwritten note by Fred Anderson, Apple's CFO, in which Anderson wrote that "the [QuickTime] patent dispute was resolved with cross-licence and significant payment to Apple." The payment was $150 million. "