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Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
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Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
#92Earlier quoted context omitted.
Through a campaign of mass terror and genocide.
The motivation for the war is that Ukrainians are really Russians who happened to be trapped in a separate country under a Nazi government. Killing all the people you came to liberate is a tough PR sell.
You're right, but so far it's unclear if Putin is at all concerned with PR.
Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
#93People love to lampoon Fukuyama, but he merely put into words and placed on a pedestal an entire mindset (which continues to persist) that has proven to be highly flawed. I am grateful he exists as at least a small focal point people can bring up. Even now the world just continues with this hazy 'everything's gonna be better eventually' talk that is well loved and perpetuated even in the face of an opposing reality.
Have you actually read "The end of History"?
Yes, although about 15 years ago so my memory of it is admittedly hazy.
Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
#94Since we can just make fuzzy predictions and not face any consequence, let's go ! 1. The Russian military (aided if needed by mercenaries) is bringing entire cities to the ground in the south of Ukraine, and just buying times before leveling substantial parts of Kyiv. Source : the news. Painting that as a "military defeat in the making for Russia" is just insane propaganda. 2. There is a perfectly "acceptable" diplom…
The populists win the French election no matter who wins. The left has collapsed completely, and Macron is sounding pretty right wing attacking wokeness and defending western values versus Islam.
Macron is definitely more right-wing than might have been expected five years ago.
That being said, even with the largest possible definition of "populist", he hardly qualifies.
The most likely outcome of this election round (president + assembly) is a macron presidency with an "official" right-wing coalition of macron's party with the most "centrist" part of the right wing. Very run of the mill stuff. And populists keeping their job as "yelling from the side".
Then again, "eternity of one month".
Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
#95Another counterview has emerged from Meduza, the press group which was 'blocked' in Russia as part of their silencing drive. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/12/has-russia-s-invasio... Apparently, according to Meduza we are only seeing the bright side of things - the news we want to hear. The battlefront has several other shock surprises if you look at the Ukrainian losses. It seems bleeding heavily on both sides…
I think this goes along with the prevailing view - that Ukraine would take heavy losses as a given. I think no one expected Russia to do the same. But now, it seems headed towards old school Red Army style meatgrinder warfare, sadly...to the vast detriment of everyone involved.
Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
#96I agree with every point he makes. Fantastic summary. I think the Russian collapse will be like what scientists call a phase transition: a semblance of stability one day, a complete breakdown one (literal) day later. Ukraine will end up holding more than 100k POWs. The only negotiations will Russia will be about reparations. I hope they don’t settle for anything less than one trillion.
The "Single Point of Failure" is Putin. If he's deposed or killed, we probably have a very different Russia the next day.
Or he gets superceded by the Dimon "shoot the survivors" Medvedev.
Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
How do we know that this is not another Afghanistan/Chechen-1 for Russia? They lost both of those, and I don't think those got off to the same troubled start (for Russia) as this one did. Think flight from the country, brain drain, economic meltdown, loss of 3 generals in one fortnight , Ukraine being flooded with weapons, equipment loss, major logistical failures, the loss of the information war... An outright defea…
Afghanistan was about Soviet/American imperial conquest & controlling Asia. Chechnya was about suppressing separatism / national security. Ukraine is also about national security, but a rung up from Chechnya because Moscow is concerned about a hostile military empire putting hypersonics there. Cuban Missile Crisis but even more extreme (imagine if Cuban extremists were shelling and killing Cuban Americans in Florida…
1. Why is Russia afraid of a defensive alliance with no compulsion to join (unlike the hilariously named Warsaw Pact)? The most enthusiastic members of the alliance are the closest to them... I wonder why...
2. NATO doesn't have hypersonic missiles. Russia has hypersonic missiles.
3. Why does Russia get to bolster their security by ravaging their democratic neighbours? Seems like zero-sum type behaviour. Maybe Russia should try making friends and stop using violence and threats.
[edit] Here I thought the invasion happened because Ukraine was a neo-Nazi state, in spite of their president being Jewish and having defeated his rival who was the incumbent in the last election. I also thought that it was because Ukraine isn't a real country, and Russia should have the same borders as it had in 1916 (which would include Poland and Lithuania). Hmmm. Seems the war was intended to wipe Ukraine (a democratic country) off the map and restore the Russian empire. You seem like an apologist for imperialism. And people are dying for no reason because of Putin and his war of conquest.
Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
#98Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Realist" IR theory in general misses the importance of self-sustaining structures, systems and institutions. The peaceful international order itself is a cooperatively self-sustaining institution, and this handily explains why a huge amount of countries which benefit from a workable international order are reacting so quickly to Russia's actions.
How do you rationalize 'the West just loves peace' (paraphrasing) with our current policy of funneling huge amounts of weapons to back an Ukrainian insurgency, and the resolute opposition to Ukraine surrendering and saving thousands of lives on any terms?
The West has tried working with Russia before the operation. The other side was actively uncooperative (they told everyone they would retreat from the Ukrainian border, but then didn't); it's not surprising at all that mutual trust and communication would break down as a result. Even so it is basically the Ukrainians who are refusing to back down now, not necessarily the West. They hold all the cards.
Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
#99Since we can just make fuzzy predictions and not face any consequence, let's go ! 1. The Russian military (aided if needed by mercenaries) is bringing entire cities to the ground in the south of Ukraine, and just buying times before leveling substantial parts of Kyiv. Source : the news. Painting that as a "military defeat in the making for Russia" is just insane propaganda. 2. There is a perfectly "acceptable" diplom…
On 2, the diplomatic option has been on the table since the civil war started in 2014 (Minsk agreements). However, it is critical to understand that it is not merely "the Ukrainians" (i.e. the current Zelensky-Klitschko-Pinchuk oligarchy) that are opposed to it, it is also Washington. After all, the latter spent billions of dollars and decades of effort tearing down the Budapest Memo, and they weren't going to easily…
"surrendering" is really not aanywhere in the spectrum in USA, historically.
And, even though the "splitting and surviving" compromise seems almost inevitable to me, I have no idea how long it will take.
And I can't blame all parties (Russia / Ukraine / EU / NATO) for trying to "buy time" and reach the négociation table in the best possible situation.
I can imagine Putin would have preferred rolling over Kyiv, then negociate. But now all he has to do is bomb, turn kyev into "Alep on Dniepr", and wait it out.
Europe has six months of warmer weather to wait it out, before gas reserves become a problem again.
I don't if Biden will prefer entering midterms with or without a war abroad ? Can't say it will really bother him more than whatever domestic "October suprise" comes up.
Again, i don't know. But I would not book an Airbnb for a barbecue in eastern Europe this summer, If I were you.
(On the other hand, if you're into Nordics or Baltics, visit finland and Estonia NOW, they're next in line.)
Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat
#100>The United Nations Security Council has proven once again to be useless. This line makes me significantly question the author's competence (as if knowing he was the author of The End of History before going into it didn't already negatively color my expectations). Russia has a permanent veto on the security council, of course it's going to be useless. Anything that goes against the interests of one of the veto membe…
Forcing the Russians to use their veto power at the UNSC is not "useless" at all. It's a meaningful signal, and very much worth doing.