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Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

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Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#51

Post by FpUser »

jonahbenton wrote: post #20
c-smile wrote: post #14

The Great Delusion (2020) by prof. John Mearsheimer: https://youtu.be/nZVIaXFN2lU That if someone really wants to understand where we are with all those Libya, Syria, Iraq, ... Ukraine. And how and when this one really started: https://youtu.be/ppD_bhWODDc As of Francis Fukuyama predictions... I am Ukrainian by myself. With family spread over West Ukraine and Russia East. Note: Russia is the second country after Ukra…

[flagged]

>"right wing thinker blinded by ideology"

Except maybe "right" it feels that you are what you say he is.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#52

Post by zozbot234 »

WJW wrote: post #29

An interesting development in the past few days is that both sides have been testing how far they can take escalation. For example Russia has stated that arming the Ukrainians would be seen as an act of war, but numerous NATO countries have done so anyway and nothing more than strong words has followed. It is also widely accepted that NATO has been supplying the Ukrainians with satellite imagery and the like. OTOH, s…

> I think the West have several escalation steps more they can get away with if they are careful.

If so, these escalation steps should be kept in reserve as much as possible, and not deployed carelessly. The Russians have not exactly been restraining themselves thus far, but they could nonetheless be doing a lot worse and being able to deter them without triggering WWIII in the process is kinda important.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#53

Post by jonahbenton »

pphysch wrote: post #35
jonahbenton wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

Dismissing Mearsheimer as a "right wing thinker" that is "blinded by ideology". Oh the irony. Mearsheimer may be blinded by silly IR theories, but he is a realist (i.e. not ideologue) through and through.

Sorry, have to disagree. His repeated "Putin is a brilliant strategist" is right out of right wing orthodoxy. Putin is a nascissist and a ruthless bully. His will to power is generally worshipped on the right, and mistaken for strategic brilliance, but it is not. For instance the endemic corruption in the regime is virtually absent from Mearsheimer analyses, but is critically important from a realist assessment.

Putin also sees everything in individual people terms, not structures and systems- unlike, for instance, China. This is also misunderstood on the right- the individual will to power takes precedence over structures and systems. Russia- as a system- has been weakening, not strengthening, acting only in asymmetric contexts like a jackal, a guerrilla terrorist. Mearsheimer has missed this.

Cheers.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#54

Post by FiberBundle »

purple_ferret wrote: post #24

People love to lampoon Fukuyama, but he merely put into words and placed on a pedestal an entire mindset (which continues to persist) that has proven to be highly flawed. I am grateful he exists as at least a small focal point people can bring up. Even now the world just continues with this hazy 'everything's gonna be better eventually' talk that is well loved and perpetuated even in the face of an opposing reality.

Have you actually read "The end of History"?

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#55

Post by jgwil2 »

smcl wrote: post #34
smoyer wrote: post #26

I'm not sure I believe any of this beyond the fact that the west's "reserve" has at least kept the conflict from extending beyond Ukraine's borders. If the war ended with Russia pulling out of Ukraine tomorrow, it's my opinion that the sanctions should last until there's a complete overhaul of the Russian government - we don't want this happening every five years!

Is that not precisely the logic the resulted in the rise of the Nazis? Let’s not forget too that sanctions are themselves an means of conducting warfare. Additionally if Russian withdrawal isn’t met by a relaxation of sanctions, what incentive is there for them to withdraw? Edit - to the downvoters: after the central powers were defeated in WW1 some hefty penalties were levied on Germany in the treaty of Versailles.…

After WWI Germany's government was overhauled and yet the allies still forced them to pay punitive reparations, so it's not exactly the same. But presumably Russia would negotiate some easing of sanctions before they withdraw; they're certainly not just going to admit defeat and withdraw unconditionally.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#56

Post by credit_guy »

BurningFrog wrote: post #41
credit_guy wrote: post #31

I agree with every point he makes. Fantastic summary. I think the Russian collapse will be like what scientists call a phase transition: a semblance of stability one day, a complete breakdown one (literal) day later. Ukraine will end up holding more than 100k POWs. The only negotiations will Russia will be about reparations. I hope they don’t settle for anything less than one trillion.

The "Single Point of Failure" is Putin. If he's deposed or killed, we probably have a very different Russia the next day.

Putin is obviously a point of failure.

But so are the hungry and scared soldiers in the field. Putin is not able to supply almost 200k soldiers, most of whom are already tens of kilometers away from the border. There will be some supply trucks coming, but if it's only 80% of what's needed rather than 100% (or better yet 120%), then soon, very soon, people on the front line will start running out of stuff that keeps them in fighting condition. And here you have so many points of failure: water, food, munitions, fuel come to mind. You run out of one of these, you stop fighting, simple as that.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#57

Post by [deleted] »

phtrivier wrote: post #2

Since we can just make fuzzy predictions and not face any consequence, let's go ! 1. The Russian military (aided if needed by mercenaries) is bringing entire cities to the ground in the south of Ukraine, and just buying times before leveling substantial parts of Kyiv. Source : the news. Painting that as a "military defeat in the making for Russia" is just insane propaganda. 2. There is a perfectly "acceptable" diplom…

[deleted]

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#58

Post by jnsaff2 »

BurningFrog wrote: post #41
credit_guy wrote: post #31

I agree with every point he makes. Fantastic summary. I think the Russian collapse will be like what scientists call a phase transition: a semblance of stability one day, a complete breakdown one (literal) day later. Ukraine will end up holding more than 100k POWs. The only negotiations will Russia will be about reparations. I hope they don’t settle for anything less than one trillion.

The "Single Point of Failure" is Putin. If he's deposed or killed, we probably have a very different Russia the next day.

One can dream but I highly doubt, Russian history is littered with autocrats and tyrants. Brief periods of even nominal democracy have also been highly unstable. The deep rooted ‘russian greatness’ is a very fertile ground for populists.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#59

Post by chongli »

srvmshr wrote: post #6

Another counterview has emerged from Meduza, the press group which was 'blocked' in Russia as part of their silencing drive. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/12/has-russia-s-invasio... Apparently, according to Meduza we are only seeing the bright side of things - the news we want to hear. The battlefront has several other shock surprises if you look at the Ukrainian losses. It seems bleeding heavily on both sides…

Everything I’m hearing about Mariupol is the opposite of what I want to hear. It’s an absolute disaster that’s ratcheting up day-by-day. The Russian army is using modern artillery to conduct medieval siege warfare. They’re deliberately starving the whole population to death and the city (like most cities today) had zero preparations to deal with a siege.

We’ve got to find some way to get these people supplies!

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#60

Post by zozbot234 »

jonahbenton wrote: post #32

The title is deceptive- Fukuyama, writing from Northern Macedonia, has an extremely optimistic view that Russia will be "defeated" and Putin will fall- notwithstanding enormous, catastrophic losses for Ukraine- with significant downstream implications. The two subpoints with which I agree are that the NATO decision on the MiGs was wise, and that neither Russia nor Ukraine can climb down from their positions. My expec…

> gradual North Koreanification of Russia with Putin at the helm

Which would still be pretty effective in preserving the current international order. If it becomes exceedingly clear that threatening your neighbors militarily means turning your country into a new North Korea at best even if you have nukes, that will deter future leaders from trying the same.

(The nukes part is very important because the only thing keeping the current non-proliferation equilibrium in place, at least among developed countries, is an understanding that nukes are only useful to defend against other nukes. Russia's overt threats in the context of this "operation" would otherwise put that equilibrium at serious risk.)

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