Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

americanpurpose.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 225 posts

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#41

Post by BurningFrog »

credit_guy wrote: post #31

I agree with every point he makes. Fantastic summary. I think the Russian collapse will be like what scientists call a phase transition: a semblance of stability one day, a complete breakdown one (literal) day later. Ukraine will end up holding more than 100k POWs. The only negotiations will Russia will be about reparations. I hope they don’t settle for anything less than one trillion.

The "Single Point of Failure" is Putin.

If he's deposed or killed, we probably have a very different Russia the next day.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#42

Post by [deleted] »

srvmshr wrote: post #6

Another counterview has emerged from Meduza, the press group which was 'blocked' in Russia as part of their silencing drive. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/12/has-russia-s-invasio... Apparently, according to Meduza we are only seeing the bright side of things - the news we want to hear. The battlefront has several other shock surprises if you look at the Ukrainian losses. It seems bleeding heavily on both sides…

[deleted]

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#43

Post by pphysch »

phtrivier wrote: post #2

Since we can just make fuzzy predictions and not face any consequence, let's go ! 1. The Russian military (aided if needed by mercenaries) is bringing entire cities to the ground in the south of Ukraine, and just buying times before leveling substantial parts of Kyiv. Source : the news. Painting that as a "military defeat in the making for Russia" is just insane propaganda. 2. There is a perfectly "acceptable" diplom…

On 2, the diplomatic option has been on the table since the civil war started in 2014 (Minsk agreements). However, it is critical to understand that it is not merely "the Ukrainians" (i.e. the current Zelensky-Klitschko-Pinchuk oligarchy) that are opposed to it, it is also Washington.

After all, the latter spent billions of dollars and decades of effort tearing down the Budapest Memo, and they weren't going to easily return to that status quo.

This is also blindingly obvious in the fact that the Overton window here in USA ranges from "no fly zone! WW3! Hoo-rah!" to "we will merely arm the Ukrainian civilians with Javelins" -- surrender and life-saving compromise isn't even on the table. What would the Kagans get out of that?!

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#44

Post by netsharc »

ilamont wrote: post #18

This is at least true in the north; the Russians are doing better in the south, but those positions would be hard to maintain if the north collapses. I'm puzzled why more attention isn't focused on Russia's progress in the south and naval superiority. They clearly want Ukraine and the world to accept its annexation of Crimea and bolstering the zone around it is shaping up to be a point of negotiation, as they made cl…

Say Ukraine surrenders and Putin gets what he wants, and the shooting stops, new borders are drawn and soldiers from both sides retreat. I can't see how Putin gets out of the economic war, though. EU and US voters will never accept their governments cancelling sanctions, and they'll boycott businesses who announce they're returning to Russia (they won't anyway, if SWIFT doesn't work and money can't flow easily). What will Putin do? Be a North Korea? I guess he can try increasing trade with China.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#45

Post by zozbot234 »

Overtonwindow wrote: post #10

For a while I was pushing the no-fly zone as well, until I read this article. I'm surprised Russia would be heading for an outright defeat, and if true they've marshaled the bulk of Russian forces in this conflict, I have to wonder what the rest of the defense position looks like for Russia? For example, if China were to, say, start rolling across Siberia, besides moving the mother of all bowel movements, there's abs…

> For a while I was pushing the no-fly zone as well

Enforcing a "no fly zone" means that NATO would have to get involved in order to gain air supremacy, potentially supported by boots on the ground . It would be the Libyan playbook, which hasn't worked all that well for NATO.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#46

Post by BurningFrog »

varjag wrote: post #30
klelatti wrote: post #22

The question I don’t have an answer for here is how does Russia control Ukraine if they do win militarily? It seems incredibly unlikely that they have enough troops and doesn’t seem remotely sustainable.

Through a campaign of mass terror and genocide.

The motivation for the war is that Ukrainians are really Russians who happened to be trapped in a separate country under a Nazi government.

Killing all the people you came to liberate is a tough PR sell.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#48

Post by mistermann »

purple_ferret wrote: post #24

People love to lampoon Fukuyama, but he merely put into words and placed on a pedestal an entire mindset (which continues to persist) that has proven to be highly flawed. I am grateful he exists as at least a small focal point people can bring up. Even now the world just continues with this hazy 'everything's gonna be better eventually' talk that is well loved and perpetuated even in the face of an opposing reality.

Agreed... Even "thought leaders" think about things simplistically, but people love simplicity so it sells.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#49

Post by zozbot234 »

smcl wrote: post #34
smoyer wrote: post #26

I'm not sure I believe any of this beyond the fact that the west's "reserve" has at least kept the conflict from extending beyond Ukraine's borders. If the war ended with Russia pulling out of Ukraine tomorrow, it's my opinion that the sanctions should last until there's a complete overhaul of the Russian government - we don't want this happening every five years!

Is that not precisely the logic the resulted in the rise of the Nazis? Let’s not forget too that sanctions are themselves an means of conducting warfare. Additionally if Russian withdrawal isn’t met by a relaxation of sanctions, what incentive is there for them to withdraw? Edit - to the downvoters: after the central powers were defeated in WW1 some hefty penalties were levied on Germany in the treaty of Versailles.…

It would be easy to do a partial rollback if the Russians withdraw. I agree though that removing the sanctions completely might be difficult.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#50

Post by hkpack »

pphysch wrote: post #43
phtrivier wrote: post #2

Since we can just make fuzzy predictions and not face any consequence, let's go ! 1. The Russian military (aided if needed by mercenaries) is bringing entire cities to the ground in the south of Ukraine, and just buying times before leveling substantial parts of Kyiv. Source : the news. Painting that as a "military defeat in the making for Russia" is just insane propaganda. 2. There is a perfectly "acceptable" diplom…

On 2, the diplomatic option has been on the table since the civil war started in 2014 (Minsk agreements). However, it is critical to understand that it is not merely "the Ukrainians" (i.e. the current Zelensky-Klitschko-Pinchuk oligarchy) that are opposed to it, it is also Washington. After all, the latter spent billions of dollars and decades of effort tearing down the Budapest Memo, and they weren't going to easily…

There never was a civil war in Ukraine. In 2014 - that was still Russian forces both in Crimea and in eastern part of Ukraine.

Russia got sanctioned since 2014 exactly for that.

Post reply on HN