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Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

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Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#21

Post by dimitar »

srvmshr wrote: post #6

Another counterview has emerged from Meduza, the press group which was 'blocked' in Russia as part of their silencing drive. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/12/has-russia-s-invasio... Apparently, according to Meduza we are only seeing the bright side of things - the news we want to hear. The battlefront has several other shock surprises if you look at the Ukrainian losses. It seems bleeding heavily on both sides…

All this talk about encircling Ukrainian forces and taking ground would have made sense if the Russians had additional echelons to continue the rapid advance while the first one sieges. Without a second and third echelon the first one will simply have larger and more vulnerable flanks if they encircle cities.

But they have only one echelon which didn't get any objectives. Given the bad logistics and attrition it needs to take the cities or the war is lost. And even if they take the cities the subsequent insurgency can still kick them out of the country.

Putin simply did not bring enough troops, hoping that either Ukraine would collapse or that the expensive weaponry (cruise missiles, jets, attack helicopters, modernized tanks) would be much more effective than it is. Soviet doctrine talks about requiring 3:1 or even 5:1 advantage against entrenched adversaries, but they have brought about parity, with Ukraine rapidly getting more volunteers and Western gear in the defensible cities.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#23

Post by frozencell »

ch4s3 wrote: post #17
srvmshr wrote: post #6

Another counterview has emerged from Meduza, the press group which was 'blocked' in Russia as part of their silencing drive. https://meduza.io/en/feature/2022/03/12/has-russia-s-invasio... Apparently, according to Meduza we are only seeing the bright side of things - the news we want to hear. The battlefront has several other shock surprises if you look at the Ukrainian losses. It seems bleeding heavily on both sides…

Even supporting the Ukrainian side, it’s clear that they’re taking heavy losses and doubly so on the civilian side. What I think people are correctly surprised by is how well the Ukrainians are utilizing NATO training an arms, and how badly the Russians are performing.

We don’t have a cryptographic proof on each statistics both sides news give us.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#24

Post by purple_ferret »

People love to lampoon Fukuyama, but he merely put into words and placed on a pedestal an entire mindset (which continues to persist) that has proven to be highly flawed. I am grateful he exists as at least a small focal point people can bring up. Even now the world just continues with this hazy 'everything's gonna be better eventually' talk that is well loved and perpetuated even in the face of an opposing reality.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#25

Post by netsharc »

God, what a simplistic model he's got. Putin is probably on his way to defeat, but it's a long way and IMO we might get a few nuked out cities before that happens. If Europe chickens out then he could be the winner, holding everyone hostage with his finger on the red button in a "Pax Russianus".

> 7. Putin will not survive the defeat of his army. He gets support because he is perceived to be a strongman; what does he have to offer once he demonstrates incompetence and is stripped of his coercive power?

The way I see it, he's a mafia boss with everyone under him (the military, the police) under his control. It feels like everyone under him is dedicated to the "Make Russia Great Again" cause. If someone takes him out, the new guy will still be a strongman with a big army and nukes, so what's the point? If someone takes him out and offers peace, US/EU/NATO will want a huge armistice (a bit like Germany after WW2) before they'd restore the economic relationship, and if the new guy accepts that sort of conquering, there'll be plenty of people from the "Long Live Russia" side ready to take him out.

A better analysis: https://www.ft.com/content/503fb110-f91e-4bed-b6dc-0d09582dd...

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#26

Post by smoyer »

I'm not sure I believe any of this beyond the fact that the west's "reserve" has at least kept the conflict from extending beyond Ukraine's borders. If the war ended with Russia pulling out of Ukraine tomorrow, it's my opinion that the sanctions should last until there's a complete overhaul of the Russian government - we don't want this happening every five years!

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#27

Post by purple_ferret »

Overtonwindow wrote: post #10

For a while I was pushing the no-fly zone as well, until I read this article. I'm surprised Russia would be heading for an outright defeat, and if true they've marshaled the bulk of Russian forces in this conflict, I have to wonder what the rest of the defense position looks like for Russia? For example, if China were to, say, start rolling across Siberia, besides moving the mother of all bowel movements, there's abs…

Putin is doing everything he can to avoid conscription, which would put Russia's view of the war in more precarious situation

He's even trying to recruit African mercenaries:

https://twitter.com/_IntelMA_/status/1502262997099724802

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#29

Post by WJW »

An interesting development in the past few days is that both sides have been testing how far they can take escalation. For example Russia has stated that arming the Ukrainians would be seen as an act of war, but numerous NATO countries have done so anyway and nothing more than strong words has followed. It is also widely accepted that NATO has been supplying the Ukrainians with satellite imagery and the like. OTOH, straight up delivering extra fighter jets or enforcing a no-fly zone is seen as "too much" at the moment. I think the West have several escalation steps more they can get away with if they are careful. After all, what is Russia going to do about it other than starting a nuclear exchange with NATO? The cost to NATO will be extremely high but Putin can be sure he won't survive either and that is what the whole thing was about from the start.

It all looks very much like one of the "proxy wars" of the cold war era, only Russia forgot to do it by proxy this time.

Re: Francis Fukuyama: Preparing for Defeat

#30

Post by varjag »

klelatti wrote: post #22

The question I don’t have an answer for here is how does Russia control Ukraine if they do win militarily? It seems incredibly unlikely that they have enough troops and doesn’t seem remotely sustainable.

Through a campaign of mass terror and genocide.
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