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Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

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Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#51
post #11

there is also a cool side effect: maybe the world domination game shifts from oil to innovation

Innovation is tricky. In practice it often boils down to the ability to generate hype around bad ideas, as there is no process for reliably exchanging money for (useful) new ideas.

That's all well and good if you want to make money, the market operates on hype, but it's less good if you need to make some particular change quickly.

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#52
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, there are more bees now than 10 years ago when they were supposed to all be dying and the polar bear population is not decreasing. Biggest carbon footprint you make is your kids....

> Also, there are more bees now than 10 years ago when they were supposed to all be dying and the polar bear population is not decreasing. Do you have sources for these 2 claims? Not that I doubt you, necessarily, but I'd love to check the data.

For the bees, this article is pretty (unreadable for my eyes), and the source is also listed https://www.arenaflowers.com/pages/bees-population-graph/

Their source http://www.fao.org/home/en/

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#53

The main action advocated by the author here is to increase efficiency (in insulation, appliances, food production, transportation) as a means to curb CO2 emissions and slow climate change - all very important. Lately I've been reading Saul Griffith's book "Electrify" which proposes a different tack - "simply" electrify all energy usage and let people maintain their current lifestyles exactly. Interestingly, doing so…

Works in Norway but I believe the US still depends in large part on fossil fuels to generate electricity, no?

Absolutely, and of course Norway also depends in great part on fossil fuels to generate wealth.

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#54

The main action advocated by the author here is to increase efficiency (in insulation, appliances, food production, transportation) as a means to curb CO2 emissions and slow climate change - all very important. Lately I've been reading Saul Griffith's book "Electrify" which proposes a different tack - "simply" electrify all energy usage and let people maintain their current lifestyles exactly. Interestingly, doing so…

It's much easier to maintain lifestyles by being more efficient than by any other means. Most energy is simply wasted. There is basically no downside to things like properly insulating houses (except perhaps the bottom line of the property developers).

There isn't--if you can get materials. And afford them. The windows in my house are starting to go. I've probably got another five years or so before they're a problem, but they were the most obvious future expenditure when I bought the place. The windows that best hit the durability and insulation points that I expect, for living here for the next 10-15 years, are around $1100 apiece. $1800 for the bigger one in the middle of the bay window on the first floor.

Oh, and they also have a 9 month lead time, if you're lucky!

And this is after I've spent five figures opening every wall, heavily insulating the place, and buttoning it back up.

I'm not complaining personally; I can afford this okay, but it's impractical to expect even moderately well-off Americans to be able to. This isn't just about the bottom line of developers, 'cause most housing stock is already owned. We're probably looking at massive subsidies to make it happen, and significant resistance because doing it is a huge imposition (one I did willingly, but I knew I was getting into it) reliant on limited labor and materials.

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electrification requires energy-efficiency savings. Insulation is specifically an absolute no-brainer - it's cheap and save a lot of energy (and money). Currently it seems that rentals are the issue more than anything.

Insulation is a no brainer until you pump it into an older house with poorly sealed walls and end up with a sodden mess next time it rains. Some of the best advice from "green" building professionals is focus on air sealing, efficient electric heat (heat pumps), and eventually rooftop solar. These have complications as well (slave labor solar panels, high gwp refrigerants) but those are often easier to fix than your…

Yup, old houses can be insulated, but they do not insulate well. Currently in an 1890s house which has been superficially renovated at least 2x in its life, with all the insulation you could possibly pump into the walls. Winter heating is still grossly expensive, and you can never stop all the drafts. During a kitchen reno we tried pulling everything back to the studs and using spray foam as the insulation and vapor barrier -- better than the rest of the house, but still noticeably draftier than a modern house.

There's no real way to fix that without completely stripping the house down to the frame and rebuilding with modern techniques and materials.

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#56

I cannot upvote this enough. We have a strict budget left for carbon emissions. It's not an exam in the future that we are currently studying for to pass. But thinking in budget terms also means talking about budgeting/rationing but I guess it needs to become really bad before we even dare to touch that...

What happens when the budget runs out?

Global warming is likely avoidable using geoengineering technology. But, for some reason, many don’t think a technological solution is morally appropriate. For instance, here is a concerted effort trying to permanently ban all scientific research on geoengineering [1].

Sure, no one wants to loft sulfur dioxide into the upper atmosphere, but it won’t cost much [2] and we have plenty of natural experiments demonstrating safety (volcanoes). The critical thing is that it would buy time to transition. It’s not like there isn’t a massive interest in transitioning from fossil fuels. But, will we transition fast enough to prevent irreversible runaway positive feedback loops?

[1] interestingly, the rationale for banning solar geoengineering is not the potential danger of the technology, but the (claimed) inability to govern the process. https://www.solargeoeng.org/

Alternatively, here is a view from the Editor of Science, calling for “Symmetric Precaution.” https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm8462

[2] https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d/...

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#57
post #42

The main action advocated by the author here is to increase efficiency (in insulation, appliances, food production, transportation) as a means to curb CO2 emissions and slow climate change - all very important. Lately I've been reading Saul Griffith's book "Electrify" which proposes a different tack - "simply" electrify all energy usage and let people maintain their current lifestyles exactly. Interestingly, doing so…

Indeed. "Fighting Climate Change" is all sunshine and rainbows and photovoltaics until you realise that the messaging has been thoroughly usurped by an anti-civilisation regressive agenda. They don't want people using cleaner energy; they primarily want people using less energy; they sell that goal with promotion of "eco" and "green" etc. I want us to use more AND cleaner energy; one without the other is a civilisati…

Pointing to a vague they makes for a very uninformative comment. I believe most people see a future where civilization progresses. There is just somewhat of a consensus, among left leaning people and groups of scientists, that we need to dial back energy usage short term, until the sources of that energy are moved away from fossil fuels.

I don't think a willingness to accept less energy for a decade or two, constitutes an anti-civilization agenda. I don't even think the small fraction of extremists who want everyone living on an organic commune are anti-civilization.

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#58

The main action advocated by the author here is to increase efficiency (in insulation, appliances, food production, transportation) as a means to curb CO2 emissions and slow climate change - all very important. Lately I've been reading Saul Griffith's book "Electrify" which proposes a different tack - "simply" electrify all energy usage and let people maintain their current lifestyles exactly. Interestingly, doing so…

Works in Norway but I believe the US still depends in large part on fossil fuels to generate electricity, no?

Yeah, very important to electrify the supply side in the US as well. Pretty dirty at the moment. There are still gains to be realized just on the demand side though, like how EVs still emit less per mile than ICE cars even when the electricity comes from coal plants[0]. In that case, the efficiency comes form the improved thermal efficiency of an industrial-scale power plant versus little gasoline car engines.

[0] - would have liked a better source but https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-15/electric-...

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#59

I am all in to be a good custodian of the world. But I am tired of the insipid, agitated state, screaming and pushing fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). When I was a young man, I was told the world will freeze, and within five years we will all die. (Good times for fur trade!) Then, the ozone layer will be gone, and within five years we will all die. (SPF 5000 anyone?) Suddenly in the early '80s it flipped to the wo…

Nobody serious said the world was going to freeze. Most papers in the field from the 70s onwards were unambiguous about the risks of warming. There is no FUD except by deniers. Stop with the misinformation, this stuff is too important.

> Nobody serious said the world was going to freeze.

Honestly, if I prove you wrong, will you apologize and retract your libel?

Re: Climate change won’t wait for future innovation – we need action now

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And air quality concerns. You need to ventilate your home with outside air year round.

In the Nordics the baseline is triple glazed windows and mechanical ventilation with exhaust air heat recovery. I'm sure doing the same elsewhere would be a good start at least

Neither of those things matter for air exchange.
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