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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#351

Post by s1artibartfast »

chii wrote: post #350
s1artibartfast wrote: post #340

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You have to reconsider who is the bully given the number of countries invaded, governments toppled, and civilians killed by the US in the last 30 years. The US takes the cake in all categories, but of course we aren't a bully, all the people we kill were the bullies. We are the strongest so we define who is a bully or not. >We should have snuffed them out like cockroaches. Instead we let them live. To our detriment.…

The whataboutism is heavy. The USA aint no saints, but that doesn't absolve putin's invasion. "They did it first, so we should be allowed" isn't a defensible justification for war.

I'm not absolving anyone. It is a fucked situation.

The hypocrisy of people saying they "should have snuffed them out like cockroaches" after 50 years of US atrocities is just astounding.

Russia is a bully, but the US is 10x worse. Ukraine is the looser here.

The US intentionally played them like a pawn and use their lives to get more leverage against Russia.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#352

Post by justsomehnguy »

prostoalex wrote: post #346
justsomehnguy wrote: post #330

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Regardless of that it is incredibly stupid to do any kind of fighting around a nuclear plant. That goes both ways. I saw the video from the start of the fighting and that was UA forces who started to fire upon oncoming forces from the building to the right on the video. If you mount defenses for something vital for the civilians of your country you should always question how exactly to do that to minimize the damag…

> If you mount defenses for something vital for the civilians of your country In other words, never protect critical civilian infrastructure? Is that the defense playbook you'd propose?

I assume you never even bothered to look at the map? [0]

Like in your playbook there were absolutely no other options there.

[0] https://www.google.com/maps/@47.5026803,34.5967556,6233m/dat...

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#353

Post by pmoriarty »

NoboruWataya wrote: post #321
pmoriarty wrote: post #254

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's really dangerous. I'm not sure that Russia will care to distinguish between current and former military personnel when it considers whether NATO countries have intervened.

Whether Russia considers NATO to have intervened is less a function of whether the facts on the ground justify that assertion, and more a function of whether Russia wants a war with NATO. It will decide based on strategic considerations and manufacture or ignore the facts as necessary to justify its decision.

"Whether Russia considers NATO to have intervened is less a function of whether the facts on the ground justify that assertion, and more a function of whether Russia wants a war with NATO. It will decide based on strategic considerations and manufacture or ignore the facts as necessary to justify its decision."

If that were true, NATO would have at least have sent troops to defend Ukraine.

We know that if NATO uses nukes against Russia, Russia will nuke back.

Nuclear war will also almost certainly result from a direct non-nuclear confrontation between NATO and Russia.

Everything short of that is a murky, gray area. We are in uncharted waters, where one wrong move or miscalculation could mean the end of civilization as we know it, and possibly all of humanity.

I wouldn't be surprised if both Russia and the US have already started working through their WW3 contingency plans and watching each other very closely like two gunfighters looking to see who's going to draw first.

The slightest hint of starting to move towards a direct confrontation could quickly and easily result in a corresponding or even more provocative response, and then spiral out of control.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#354

Post by slim »

cycomanic wrote: post #241
dekhn wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Eventually the question becomes "if these guest fighters are successful, at what point do they consider going north through the contested border and attacking Russian (or, more likely, Belurussian) cities?"

I was actually reading some analysis from a military strategist who was quite critical of the foreign fighters. Essentially his arguments were that they are much more driven by idiology (and different ones) and thus less easy to follow orders and be controlled, which could lead to unwanted escalation. Not sure what to make of it, but people are definitely thinking about this.

when you say driven by ideology, you mean they are neo-nazis ?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#355

Post by manicdee »

thiagoharry wrote: post #343
guelo wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's the Russian propaganda. The Ukrainian propaganda says the Russians are the ones preventing people from leaving.

Using civilians as shield makes more sense for defenders, not for attackers. Civilians makes harder to shell and bomb places. The exception is if attackers force civilians to march in front of their troops, which is not the case apparently.

The (reports are that) Russians are using civilians for target practise and hostages, not human shields.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#356

Post by hansvm »

chii wrote: post #349
shuntress wrote: post #257

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a pretty big philosophical difference between a Canadian private citizen taking their own equipment to Ukraine and a Canadian soldier follows orders into Ukraine. Obviously the real world has more complexity than that. "Complain about it" could mean "We know about your tax incentives driving your citizens to fight us and we want you to end that program" but is more likely to mean "We want you to police your…

> a pretty big philosophical difference between a Canadian private citizen taking their own equipment to Ukraine and a Canadian soldier follows orders into Ukraine. and a legal quagmire. I wonder if a canadian citizen who murders someone overseas can be tried for such in canada (when they return). Because if they can be, then going overseas to participate in a war can be legally problematic, esp. unauthorized by the…

Most laws apply to people within the territory of a country, not to citizens of that country wherever they may be, and extradition typically is used when the law was broken in some country and the offender fled, not when the offense was committed elsewhere. For what it's worth, I think the counter-examples are a worrying trend.

Is there a good reason why any country willing to claim you as a citizen should have a right to police you wherever you are in the world? In context, if Russia decided that all current Ukrainians were Russian citizens should they be allowed to continue the invasion (which at that point would just be ordinary police work quelling an internal rebellion)?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#357

Post by kinleyd »

yucky wrote: post #214
kinleyd wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given what's already happened, and provided (I'm hoping) Ukraine continues to hold out as it has, both EU/NATO membership is looking very realistic and likely to occur in relatively quick order. I think settling for less would be illogical at this point.

>both EU/NATO membership is looking very realistic Neither is possible. Ukraine does not control its borders so can't join NATO and is not economically viable enough to enter EU. And under that scenario trying to take Crimea starts a world war between Russia and NATO. Ukraine joining NATO is just not ever going to be allowed to happen.

I believe a lot will depend on the outcome of this war as well as its ramifications for Putin's grip on power. Ukraine has so far defied all the odds and I wouldn't bet against them at this point. If given a bloody enough nose Russia may not be in a position to never allow NATO membership to happen.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#358

Post by kinleyd »

bdamm wrote: post #162
kinleyd wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given what's already happened, and provided (I'm hoping) Ukraine continues to hold out as it has, both EU/NATO membership is looking very realistic and likely to occur in relatively quick order. I think settling for less would be illogical at this point.

EU membership is only possible if certain economic metrics are met, IIRC, and that is impossible to achieve while under attack or even soon after in the rebuilding phase. So to me EU membership is looking pretty far out. Why does it look realistic to you?

Yes, I understand the requirements for EU/NATO membership and that Ukraine is a long way from there. I thought it was realistic given the circumstances: Ukraine is quite literally fighting for eastern Europe - including those countries that have already acceded to the EU. I can't see any other way to look at it given the facts that have already surfaced. While the EU and NATO waffle over the extent it is willing to risk engaging in this war, Ukraine is getting destroyed, but may yet do enough to set back Putin's designs by 30 or more years, if not permanently. I believe such an outcome should confer the deserved right to special treatment for Ukraine by both the EU and NATO. However, perhaps I am too romantic in this regard as even at this time I'm sensing stodginess on the part of the EU and NATO.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#359

Post by Kranar »

mdoms wrote: post #265
Kranar wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't help in anyway and in fact makes things even more ambiguous. On what basis would three "reputable" media sources report that the majority of Kyiv's regions are under Russian military control?

Well the point of using multiple reputable sources is that regardless of what basis it's reported, there is at least some widespread agreement. How does that "not help in anyway(sic)"?

Your response doesn't answer OP's question all it does is punt the issue to a news agency. If a news agency reports it on the basis of a "mission accomplished type photo op", does that count? Or does it require a news agency to report it on the basis of a "prolonged stable holding"?

Just saying that the prediction market shall resolve because three reputable news agencies report something is completely devoid of any insight into the nature of issue. It's as logically absurd as claiming that you have cancer because a Doctor told you that you have cancer, or claiming that you killed Jack because a jury delivered a guilty verdict. No, you don't have cancer because a Doctor said so and no you didn't kill Jack because of a jury's verdict; you have cancer because of an actual condition involving the rapid and abnormal cell growth and you killed Jack because you took a knife and stabbed him.

You are certainly justified to believe you have cancer because a Doctor told you so, and I am justified to believe you killed Jack because a jury said so, but a justification is not the same thing as an actual cause.

So going back to the original question: what is the criteria that determines that Kyiv has actually fallen to Russian forces as opposed to what is the justification for believing that Kyiv has fallen.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#360

Post by dzikimarian »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #341
dzikimarian wrote: post #325

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, you also will not be able to find locations of any reputable military - that's basic security measure. I know Russian army does not set the bar very high though, so maybe you're not used to that.

yeah, apparently it is a security concern to utter the words anywhere on the internet, in any context. no "Ukrainian troop locations"... are well positioned, spread out, in the east, overwhelmed, shouldn't be disclosed, ect 0 hits containing the string.

Yes it is? You can see similar instructions on hundred years old war-time posters.
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