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Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

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Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#211

Post by tguvot »

twblalock wrote: post #60
InTheArena wrote: post #36

Armies have momentum. Germany almost lost in 1941 when Barbarossa failed. Hitler managed to keep his armies from disintegrating, but it was a near thing. Japan's armies went far further then they had any right too in the same period, because of the perception of invincibility, higher morale, and everyone underestimating them for racial reasons. It's very clear that the Russians badly screwed up their logistics chain…

The Russian government knew there would be sanctions no matter what happened. They had already decided to accept those even in the event of victory. They aren't in a no-win scenario either. Kyiv cannot hold out forever. The Russians have an overwhelming numeric advantage and they can simply wait out the defenders, using that time to fix their supply lines. It's tempting to exaggerate a Russian setback into a total co…

actually it looks like they planned for a quick victory in a couple of days and slap on the hand like they got in 2014. they didn't anticipated this mess and this level of sanctions.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#212

Post by nwiswell »

alangibson wrote: post #77
nwiswell wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes. The terrain for Ukranian insurgents will simply be civilians. How can you tell who is going to shoot you in the back when you turn around? Unfortunately, we live in a new age and China has perfected facial recognition software, which they will probably have no scruples about providing to Russia. I'm not sure a crowd provides the same kind of anonymity that it once did.

It depends totally on how unified people remain. I don't think facial recognition cameras will last long against crowds that have proven themselves willing to dance on top of enemy tanks.

I was imagining that the cameras would be carried by the troops themselves as an IFF measure.

But you're right, the conflict may or may not actually reach the stage of clandestine insurgency.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#213

Post by [deleted] »

suifbwish wrote: post #192
nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

All Ukraine has to do is: 1. Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. 2. Anyone in their prisons, offer them clemency if they agree to fight (bad idea I know but it works)

[deleted]

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#214

Post by yucky »

kinleyd wrote: post #84
k__ wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think, they should do the exact opposite. Join EU on a quick path and call Putin's nuclear bluff. I'm not happy about it and can't sleep right for days anymore, because I fear a nuclear escalation. But I don't want to live in a world where such a situation could happen again and again. There are many slavic countries this fascist hungers for.

Given what's already happened, and provided (I'm hoping) Ukraine continues to hold out as it has, both EU/NATO membership is looking very realistic and likely to occur in relatively quick order. I think settling for less would be illogical at this point.

>both EU/NATO membership is looking very realistic

Neither is possible. Ukraine does not control its borders so can't join NATO and is not economically viable enough to enter EU. And under that scenario trying to take Crimea starts a world war between Russia and NATO.

Ukraine joining NATO is just not ever going to be allowed to happen.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#215

Post by otherme123 »

signatoremo wrote: post #186
otherme123 wrote: post #146

Earlier quoted context omitted.

IMHO war isn't a scale of bodies. Each side has a strategic objective(s), and winning/losing should be measured against that. Case in point: Vietnam. uSA and allies lost between 1/3 and 1/2 lifes than the North. And the USA loses were small (60.000 in a total of 1.5 million deaths). But it was a total defeat of the USA because none of the strategic objectives were achieved. Ukraine: strategic objectives are being an…

The most important objective was achieved — preventing the expansion of the communism block to other countries. Vietnam today is a market economy, the country is communist in name only. Also, please try to Vietnam. The US is very favorably perceived, more than China or Russia, although probably below European countries. In the sense, the US lost the war, but won in the end, at a very steep price, of course

Sure! USA won a lot of wars just by not fighting: spreading wealth and culture via commerce is a far more effective way to _conquer_ countries than obliterating them.

And USA defeated the whole communist block using the same weapons. Also, don't dismiss tourism as a _weapon_: it's would be more effective to send millions of frienly tourists to Cuba than to embargoe them for decades.

But that's disgressing. Vietnam was only used as a sample of strategic millitary defeat albeit losing less people. I don't think anyone in the Whitehouse has planned the vietnamese frienship ahead.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#216

Post by kbelder »

sillysaurusx wrote: post #151
imwillofficial wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was not shelled, there was a small firefight involving a training building outside the reactor complex. Shelling means artillery. No artillery was involved. You did not “see the reactor get shelled live.”

Not only did the reactor get shelled, and not only did I see it live, but I was so amazed at the Russians’ stupidity that I took screenshots: https://imgur.com/a/6T7p9BD Those gigantic streaks in the lower right are shells from tanks. They certainly aren’t tracers from rifles.

A good reminder that we should all be screenshotting everything of interest, just in case it won't be believed later.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#217

Post by UberFly »

suifbwish wrote: post #192
nugget wrote: post #76

My partners and I have a couple hundred employees in Dnipro, Ukraine. Most of the employees have relocated to Poland or western Ukraine, some are sheltering in place, some are fighting. We started to source supplies last week, especially for those who are sheltering in place or fighting. During discussions with various parties across the supply chain it became clear that an enormous effort was underway by hundreds/th…

All Ukraine has to do is: 1. Offer immediate provisional citizenship/asylum to anyone who immigrated to fight. 2. Anyone in their prisons, offer them clemency if they agree to fight (bad idea I know but it works)

The Dirty дюжина

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#218

Post by sillysaurusx »

ClumsyPilot wrote: post #189
sillysaurusx wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not only did the reactor get shelled, and not only did I see it live, but I was so amazed at the Russians’ stupidity that I took screenshots: https://imgur.com/a/6T7p9BD Those gigantic streaks in the lower right are shells from tanks. They certainly aren’t tracers from rifles.

Could you elaborate why or how you determined/believe that they are tank shots, for the rest of us?

It’s easier to tell in video form. But basically you could see the shells come from the road in the distance (see the bridge?) all the way past the camera. The still frame probably makes it hard to see the scale.

You’re right to press me for details on the “tank” part. I don’t know if the shots are from tanks. But they’re so large that it rules out foot soldiers, so it’s some kind of vehicle-mounted gun.

It’s definitely not the kind of thing you want hitting a nuclear reactor.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#219

Post by oezi »

s1artibartfast wrote: post #170
helpseeker wrote: post #135

Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. I think since after the 1st week of troop movements it's pretty clear: - Russia aims at encircling cities, draining the resistance there, forcing them into negotiations and so that enemy combatants can evacuate into western Ukraine (like they did in Syria) - Ukraine aims at short-term lu…

>Information from either side is to be taken with a grain of salt, although Ukraine is winning the social media ops-game hands down. At lest in the west where our information is censored to provide a Pro-Ukrainian perspective. I can only guess at how the social media ops-game is playing out in Russia and China within their own propaganda bubble.

Can you clarify how are our information censored in the west? Like specifically what kind of information is actively suppressed by a government actor?
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