Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26% • Hacker News Board

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#21

Post by soperj » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 5:42 PM UTC

yladiz wrote: post #8

deutschew wrote: post #4

how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia! Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completel…

> we forget that Ukraine is not just Kyiv, it is slowly being swallowed up from all directions Except we haven’t forgotten, news orgs are reporting on things happening outside of Kyiv. Russia seems to have really overplayed their hand because they were barely able to take Kherson after like a week, and can’t even take bigger cities like Kharkiv, even with intense shelling. Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they su…

>Russia may not be a paper tiger, but they sure can’t do much against an enemy many times smaller than them.

How long did it take for the US to take Afghanistan?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#22

Post by bufferoverflow » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 5:44 PM UTC

jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

What are you talking about? Zelenski just declined such an offer from russia.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#23

Post by deutschew » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 5:45 PM UTC

jcadam wrote: post #15

deutschew wrote: post #4

how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia! Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completel…

If Putin fails in Ukraine, he'll be forced from power in Russia. He has no reason to give up and every reason to continue until he can claim at least some sort of victory.

What is clear is that Putin is highly paranoid and has been since taking power and he's willing to commit crimes against humanity to stay in power.

He's already announced he is willing to use nukes if threatened and NATO will not respond unless multiple re-entry vehicles carrying nukes rain on their cities. He could do a lot here by using small scale nukes that don't create huge fallouts even.

If you were Putin, does it not make sense that his least trusted, potentially disloyal officers, generals would be on the frontlines and hope they don't come back?

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#24

Post by gremlinsinc » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 5:45 PM UTC

jcadam wrote: post #13

Zelensky is starting to sound like he's open to considering some of Russia's stated terms (no pursuit of NATO membership and cession of eastern Ukraine). That doesn't sound like things are going especially well for him.

I think Zelenskyy should take: No eu/Nato membership (face it, he's months or years from qualifying anyways), and he leaves Donbask, and Crimea (for now), but does NOT agree to disband any military, and is allowed to secure his own borders.

In otherwords he can still ramp up, then the west simply continues squeezing Putin and Russia for a year, or 3... then he can either go take back Crimea/Donbask regions, or perhaps wage a coup inside Russia -- get the oligarchs to agree to a Democratic Merging of Ukraine, Belarus, Russia with Zelenskyy as President for the first two terms, and with a path towards NATO and EU membership - which would be a HUGE finger to China and a big win for Democracy.

This essentially gives both sides a ceasefire but western pressure on Russia slowly strangles them to the point of collapse, and Zelenskyy can then basically take over, as he's basically a Hero for many in Ukraine and Russia and even Europe and USA. I mean a comedian turned President against Putin and he's holding his own pretty well - it's David vs Goliath.

IMHO that's the best option. As for this war, whether Zelenskyy does this or not. Putin has lost Russia. It's a matter of time before he's deposed after this blunder. Russia will never win in Ukraine.

Option B: Hold out a month, and basically Russia might be at the point they'd give him Crimea, Belarus, and Donbas if the west just eases up a tiny fraction on sanctions.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#25

Post by astrange » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 5:46 PM UTC

deutschew wrote: post #4

how much of this was contributed to banning all reporting from the Russian side of things? right now the atmosphere is like if you even remotely suggest that Russia is actually making slow progress despite losses you are viewed as supporting Russia! Yet what the fixation on Kyiv is doing is it's pulling resources away from the south and Donentsk/Lukansk area where the Ukraine army is in real danger of being completel…

The accounts I follow (like @OSINTtechnical) are careful to point out that Russia is doing relatively well in the south of Ukraine but I’ve never seen a believable analysis that they actually are doing well, and I’ve looked. The ones out there are base contrarianism, usually disproven in the next day or two. In particular they assume Russia somehow controls land by driving straight past it so it gets marked red on the map.

Still, it doesn’t change their ability to flatten any city they want. And the lack of any good successor government in Russia to allow the current one to collapse, so they have nothing to lose.

In the end it’s all Larry Summers’ fault, like everything else in the world.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#26

Post by gremlinsinc » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 5:46 PM UTC

ncr100 wrote: post #10

amriksohata wrote: post #3

The Taliban took 2 weeks to take over Afghanistan with little resistance in comparison. Both Ukraine and Afghanistan have similar land in sqm and population sizes. Why does anyone expect Ukraine to be taken over in a few weeks when there is bound to be more resistance? You would think atleast double or treble that time.

Ukrainians accepting their new Russian overlords, is another reason to think the invasion will succeed quicker.

LMAO, this will never happen. Especially after Russians gunned down civilian refugees during a 'ceasefire'. Russians are defecting from the military left and right if anything the Russians are likely to beg Ukraine to be their new overlords or at least claim asylum.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#27

Post by garyrob » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 5:47 PM UTC

rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

26% is closer to 3-to-1 odds. :)

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#28

Post by bufferoverflow » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 5:47 PM UTC

ncr100 wrote: post #10

amriksohata wrote: post #3

The Taliban took 2 weeks to take over Afghanistan with little resistance in comparison. Both Ukraine and Afghanistan have similar land in sqm and population sizes. Why does anyone expect Ukraine to be taken over in a few weeks when there is bound to be more resistance? You would think atleast double or treble that time.

Ukrainians accepting their new Russian overlords, is another reason to think the invasion will succeed quicker.

Ukrainians will not accept Russian overlords. They hate them. Any puppet government will be killed / removed very quickly. Ukrainians do that very often. Their mentality is very different from russian mentality.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#29

Post by frogger8 » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 5:47 PM UTC

rdtwo wrote: post #11

Do people put money on this because 4:1 odds are pretty good. If definition of fall is a mission accomplished type photo op I’d take those odds. If it’s prolonged stable holding then I probably would not

No post body was provided.

Re: Prediction that Kyiv falls to Russian forces by April 2022 goes from 90% to 26%

#30

Post by sillysaurusx » Tue, Mar 08, 2022, 5:47 PM UTC

CodeGlitch wrote: post #18

Here's my prediction: Russia will take control of all or most nuclear power plants and other infrastructure. At which point it's only a matter of time until the people of Ukraine will surrender with no water or electricity. As it stands the West can do nothing. In the case that NATO starts shooting, the sarcophagus over Chernobyl can be bombed (Putin can blame Ukrainians here). It seems to be that there's no way out…

Russia can't do that. They have no way of moving supplies from Russia into Ukraine. That means Russia's operational capabilities are limited to five days, at which point their troops are stranded.