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Is Putin’s end game the roll out of a domestic CBDC?

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Re: Is Putin’s end game the roll out of a domestic CBDC?

#21

Post by NationalPark »

ravedave5 wrote: post #12

Barely into it and I find this nugget "His expensive weaponry is being held back" the SU-34's being shot down would disagree, and the tens of million dollar MRLSs being towed by farmers as well...

It also says Kyiv hasn't been bombed (it has, including civilian areas), that Russia hasn't used its expensive equipment (they've fired at least 600 cruise missiles at Ukraine as well as the SU-34s you mentioned, and the top-line air defense equipment we've also seen captured). Most damningly, it doesn't even mention Putin's own given revanchist explanation for the invasion, which is indeed consistent with his historic rhetoric about the region and with everything we publicly know about his thinking on Russia's position as a so-called "Great Power". Putin is also notoriously averse to technology, so it makes even less sense that he'd plan all this in order to introduce a fintech transformation that solidifies his power (which was already solid before the invasion, which has in fact lead to the largest domestic protests in Russia in decades).

It's a novelty take, rather than a serious one IMO.

Re: Is Putin’s end game the roll out of a domestic CBDC?

#22

Post by duxup »

jakuboboza wrote: post #18
duxup wrote: post #11

NONE of this seems to require the war we've seen so far... He can kick out media folks for any reason he likes. His war makes his military look weak / strengthened his opponent's resolve. >Putin is not trying very hard to conquer Ukraine. His expensive weaponry is being held back – he is invading on the cheap with expendable conscripts and lots of shelling from close range. I find this hard to buy into at this point.…

Putin is trying very hard, but western people don't understand war and russian starting point. * Logistics is being targeted * Russian army relies in railroads like its 1945 * Ukraine targets logistics as the well identified weak link * Ukraine is defended by everyone and everyone hates Russians. * Morale is Russian army is turbo low. They dont want to kill people who could be their relatives. * Generals on Russian s…

I agree with your assessment, and I've seen most of that referenced in western media.

Re: Is Putin’s end game the roll out of a domestic CBDC?

#23

Post by Finnucane »

It seems that if this is really what Putin wanted--and maybe he does--he could have achieved it without war. He could have just done it. It still seems like the most likely reason he did the war is that he wanted to do the war. He really does want territorial expansion of the empire; that's why he expended his influence in trying to get the US out of NATO.

During the Soviet era, when there was no official exchange between the dollar and the ruble, there was a dollar-based black market. Possibly that would return (if it isn't already).

Re: Is Putin’s end game the roll out of a domestic CBDC?

#24

Post by unfocussed_mike »

unfocussed_mike wrote: post #7
galaxyLogic wrote: post #3

This is a sobering perspective for all digital currency advocates: State-owned digital currency can lead to total control of population. Putin doesn't want Ukraine, he wants to isolate Russians to better control them.

> State-owned digital currency can lead to total control of population. He absolutely does not need to do this thing to have total control of the population. North Korea has total control of its population without digital currency, does it not? The fundamental way Putin has total control of his population is by having his opponents poisoned, thrown out of windows, or into prison. He has neutered the political system…

OK I've read it now.

It's crackers.

Wait: it's a Poe? All of cryptography is a Poe.

Re: Is Putin’s end game the roll out of a domestic CBDC?

#26

Post by chilmers »

This article is proof that you're deep enough into crypto, you lose the ability to see any event through any other lens.

Putin's actions in Ukraine are not a great mystery, and do not require a conspiracy to impose a CBDC to explain. Putin and his circle are in complete control of Russia and Russian politics and face no meaningful domestic opposition. He has no requirement to manufacture a war or other crisis to change economic policy, no requirement to impose a CBDC to exert pressure on his population, and no requirement to exert mass control of his population at all, given his wide popularity.

Regarding Ukraine, Putin judged that the Ukrainian government were pro-West and hostile to his regime, and that this was unlikely to change without some external factor forcing it to. He observed the sanctions situation following the Crimean annexation and judged that sanctions were 1) survivable, 2) not likely to be elevated to the point that they risked European economic growth and energy security, and 3) not likely to be relaxed without significant concessions.

Most recently, Putin observed the Western withdrawal from Afghanistan and concluded Ukraine was an analogous situation: As he saw it, the government was corrupt, it only survived due to Western backing, and its members would flee when faced with rapid defeat (and likely execution). This would produce a power vacuum, and neither the armed forces or the civilian population would offer serious resistance to a new regime. And, presented with a fait accompli, the West would agree to recognise new government in the same way they had with the Taliban despite having fought against them for 20 years.

Based on this, he saw little downside to what he genuinely believed would be a swift and decisive operation to replace the government of Ukraine. After the plan's initial failure, he has no alternative but to try to save some face by completing the conquest or forcing an uneven armistice.

Re: Is Putin’s end game the roll out of a domestic CBDC?

#27

Post by labrador »

Destroying Ukraine is orthogonal to establishing a Russian digital currency. Putin is not crazy. He's outlined in great detail his problem with Ukraine, but people don't want to believe him and imagine they can find the real reason. This war is exposing that some people have no analytical skills at all and write up dumb takes. Here's another one:

Putin is Devastating Ukraine to Send the World a Message

https://eand.co/why-putin-is-unleashing-slaughter-in-ukraine...

Trust me, the world doesn't need your ill informed opinion because you have a deadline and a fan base that you need to write for

Re: Is Putin’s end game the roll out of a domestic CBDC?

#29

Post by somedude895 »

ravedave5 wrote: post #12

Barely into it and I find this nugget "His expensive weaponry is being held back" the SU-34's being shot down would disagree, and the tens of million dollar MRLSs being towed by farmers as well...

Also the part about how Russia's just burning through less valuable conscripts is absolutely untrue. Very much the opposite actually. Conscripts are being held back, apparently because while families hate when their sons, brothers, fathers get killed, families REALLY hate it when said person was forced into the military
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