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And what about crime rates?
From what I've read the removal of lead from gasoline is partially a factor in the sudden reduction of crime during the latter half of the 20th century, but it's not enough to explain the entire trend... which seems to be a preponderance of factors.
It makes me angry to think of how wreckless the generations before millenials were. Lead's risks and damages were well-known long before 1996. And they still didn't ban it until then.
Lead still isn't banned in the US. You can go buy 100LL and burn it in your plane all day long showering it over the land below. Completely legal.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Crime rates have fallen historically until COVID. I think it's more likely the post WW2 and post Cold War (perceived) eras were periods of irrational exuberance culturally in the west with uncommon optimism in western lead globalism and its future (What you consider civilization I take it). The last few years were a big time reality check on the collective interest in that future.
The rate of violent crime nearly quadrupled between 1960 and its peak in 1991 in the US. Even with the COIVD bump, rates are comparable to the mid 60s, and aren't tracking the previous climb.
Perhaps past lead usage in fuels will indirectly lead to collapse of the civilisation: Lead is known to decrease empathy and increase crime. I don’t want to generalise an entire generation but boomer generation was heavily poisoned by lead and perhaps this made them more selfish and less emphatic. Maybe this is the primary cause of many current problems? I wonder if humans were supposed to be more emphatic in past be…
It makes me angry to think of how wreckless the generations before millenials were. Lead's risks and damages were well-known long before 1996. And they still didn't ban it until then.
Same goes for sugar. We know the dangers it poses, we are also seeing how much it increases risk of death due to covid. I don't think we should be surpsied, as much as pushing to regulate this garbage. As an aside, Michelle Obama's campaign when Obama was in office was about improvement children's health. Her focus was going to be on nutrition (lunch food). Shortly thereafter Coke and Pepsi came in with "donations" a…
Sugar is our generation's tobacco for sure.
It makes me angry to think of how wreckless the generations before millenials were. Lead's risks and damages were well-known long before 1996. And they still didn't ban it until then.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
People say this about lead, people say this about abortion, people say this about building more prisons and 3-strike laws. Nothing is monocausal, don't trust anyone who makes such a claim unless they provide extraordinary evidence.
Obviously nothing is monocausal, but it seems like the link with lead here is best supported by evidence among the things you've listed. It holds constant across several countries and cultures where those other factors are quite different. Western Europe wasn't throwing up prisons and enacting 3-strike laws, but saw similar declines in crime. You can find similar counter examples around abortion access as well. Those…
There is no such natural experiment for abortion. It's just an idea.
And what about crime rates?
From what I've read the removal of lead from gasoline is partially a factor in the sudden reduction of crime during the latter half of the 20th century, but it's not enough to explain the entire trend... which seems to be a preponderance of factors.
This makes me think that we just can't be too certain about these things.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Obviously nothing is monocausal, but it seems like the link with lead here is best supported by evidence among the things you've listed. It holds constant across several countries and cultures where those other factors are quite different. Western Europe wasn't throwing up prisons and enacting 3-strike laws, but saw similar declines in crime. You can find similar counter examples around abortion access as well. Those…
The lead hypothesis is supported by particularly strong evidence: there is a natural threshold experiment where school children with blood lead levels over a certain amount are treated to remove lead from their home environment (and their bodies) while other children just below the same lead level were not treated. The difference in later life outcomes are stark. There is no such natural experiment for abortion. It's…