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The History of Sanctions

dissentmagazine.org

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Re: The History of Sanctions

#11

Post by aivisol »

oblio wrote: post #9
simonh wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, a Ruble buys you fewer international goods than a dollar, but has much more buying power in Russia. The tank factories still exist, and the workers there still have jobs and can still make tanks. As long as they still get food and raw materials more tanks will come off the line, and Russia nowadays has enough food and plenty of raw materials. The Ruble will buy less on international markets, but it still buys s…

Tanks these days aren't raw steel, rubber and a few other things anymore. They're advanced alloys, a ton of electronics, etc. Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined. Similar story for almost every advanced military product. And for civilian products. The Russian population is in for a world of hurt.

Unfortunately they are able to replace quality by quantity. Their tech in Ukraine is from 50s and 60s (I know by first hand experience) but they are just too many...

Re: The History of Sanctions

#12

Post by Traster »

KarlKemp wrote: post #3

So… sanctions shouldn’t be used because they are too powerful? And this is argued almost exclusively with pre-1940 history? The specifics of what results of sanctions the author finds to be excessive are limited to mentioning deaths from famine. Does anyone believe the EU and US are capable of and willing to degrade the Russian economy to the point of mass famine? I can discern exactly one testable hypothesis from th…

I don't think it's true to say that Europe and the US are equally willing to apply sanctions. The entire theme of the months before the invasion was that the US was willing to go fast and hard on sanctions whilst European countries were largely split. As it turns out Russia's actions were so extreme that essentially it collapsed that split. But that's also because Europe is far more affected by Russia's war on Ukraine than the US. You see this in the exceptions to the sanctions- gas & oil that Europe is dependent on, and the support the US is providing in terms of procuring LNG for Europe. The US has demonstrably been working to enable and encourage Europe to sanction Russia.

Re: The History of Sanctions

#13

Post by clearwind »

KarlKemp wrote: post #3

So… sanctions shouldn’t be used because they are too powerful? And this is argued almost exclusively with pre-1940 history? The specifics of what results of sanctions the author finds to be excessive are limited to mentioning deaths from famine. Does anyone believe the EU and US are capable of and willing to degrade the Russian economy to the point of mass famine? I can discern exactly one testable hypothesis from th…

> Does anyone believe the EU and US are capable of and willing to degrade the Russian economy to the point of mass famine?

I think North Korea has some comparability - the West provides aid in spite of an antagonistic ruler. But in similar vein the West would prefer both rulers to spend more time working for their citizens’ economic wellbeing than on militaristic projects.

Re: The History of Sanctions

#14

Post by treeman79 »

oblio wrote: post #9
simonh wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, a Ruble buys you fewer international goods than a dollar, but has much more buying power in Russia. The tank factories still exist, and the workers there still have jobs and can still make tanks. As long as they still get food and raw materials more tanks will come off the line, and Russia nowadays has enough food and plenty of raw materials. The Ruble will buy less on international markets, but it still buys s…

Tanks these days aren't raw steel, rubber and a few other things anymore. They're advanced alloys, a ton of electronics, etc. Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined. Similar story for almost every advanced military product. And for civilian products. The Russian population is in for a world of hurt.

Depends on how China responds. The world is in a proxy war with Russia via Ukraine.

China might decide to have a proxy war with the west via Russia. Or maybe not. Since The world is coming together hopefully discouraged shenanigans.

This is kind of similar to how Vietnam was a proxy war between the US and Russia.

Re: The History of Sanctions

#15

Post by clearwind »

KarlKemp wrote: post #3

So… sanctions shouldn’t be used because they are too powerful? And this is argued almost exclusively with pre-1940 history? The specifics of what results of sanctions the author finds to be excessive are limited to mentioning deaths from famine. Does anyone believe the EU and US are capable of and willing to degrade the Russian economy to the point of mass famine? I can discern exactly one testable hypothesis from th…

> I can discern exactly one testable hypothesis from this: that the US would be more willing than Europe to impose sanctions. This idea has already been proven to be wrong.

Incorrect - the US is more willing to impose a ban on Russian oil. This supports the hypothesis.

Re: The History of Sanctions

#16

Post by dspillett »

oblio wrote: post #9
simonh wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, a Ruble buys you fewer international goods than a dollar, but has much more buying power in Russia. The tank factories still exist, and the workers there still have jobs and can still make tanks. As long as they still get food and raw materials more tanks will come off the line, and Russia nowadays has enough food and plenty of raw materials. The Ruble will buy less on international markets, but it still buys s…

Tanks these days aren't raw steel, rubber and a few other things anymore. They're advanced alloys, a ton of electronics, etc. Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined. Similar story for almost every advanced military product. And for civilian products. The Russian population is in for a world of hurt.

> Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined.

Right now they don't have to, they just need to replace things at the level as Ukraine with just a little help from others. That is much more manageable than “the rest of the world combined”.

> The Russian population is in for a world of hurt.

Which Putin will blame on the rest of the world. While many in Russia are well aware that state run media (and anything else not banned) is often a pile of lies from on high, an awful lot of the general populace are not – disinformation from the top works (and not just in Russia & similar regimes, cf. the cult of Trump) and failing that many people who don't believe the official line will keep quiet about that for reasons of what continued quality of life is possible.

> The Russian population is in for a world of hurt.

The military will do OK for a while at least though. They haven't sent over the majority of their equipment, they'll have plenty in reserve and raw materials for making at least some more. Sales of oil & gas can be funnelled into buying more from outside if needed (massive exchange rate differences don't matter as much if export payments almost immediately go out on import payments, or they can start trading more directly if they have a willing trading partner (China perhaps?)).

Re: The History of Sanctions

#17

Post by brabel »

oblio wrote: post #9
simonh wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, a Ruble buys you fewer international goods than a dollar, but has much more buying power in Russia. The tank factories still exist, and the workers there still have jobs and can still make tanks. As long as they still get food and raw materials more tanks will come off the line, and Russia nowadays has enough food and plenty of raw materials. The Ruble will buy less on international markets, but it still buys s…

Tanks these days aren't raw steel, rubber and a few other things anymore. They're advanced alloys, a ton of electronics, etc. Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined. Similar story for almost every advanced military product. And for civilian products. The Russian population is in for a world of hurt.

> Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined.

They are still trading with China, India, Brazil, Mexico and a few other large countries... it's not exactly the whole world against Russia (if you include China and India as at least being neutral, that's already more than half the world population NOT against Russia).

Re: The History of Sanctions

#18

Post by bigger_inside »

treeman79 wrote: post #14
oblio wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tanks these days aren't raw steel, rubber and a few other things anymore. They're advanced alloys, a ton of electronics, etc. Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined. Similar story for almost every advanced military product. And for civilian products. The Russian population is in for a world of hurt.

Depends on how China responds. The world is in a proxy war with Russia via Ukraine. China might decide to have a proxy war with the west via Russia. Or maybe not. Since The world is coming together hopefully discouraged shenanigans. This is kind of similar to how Vietnam was a proxy war between the US and Russia.

"The world" is not. The US and their allies are. The rest of the world is sitting this out at best. Go check some Indian, African, and South American coverage. It's very eye-opening.

Re: The History of Sanctions

#19

Post by oblio »

brabel wrote: post #17
oblio wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tanks these days aren't raw steel, rubber and a few other things anymore. They're advanced alloys, a ton of electronics, etc. Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined. Similar story for almost every advanced military product. And for civilian products. The Russian population is in for a world of hurt.

> Russia can't make all of that at the same level as the rest of the world combined. They are still trading with China, India, Brazil, Mexico and a few other large countries... it's not exactly the whole world against Russia (if you include China and India as at least being neutral, that's already more than half the world population NOT against Russia).

The CANZUK and EU economies put together are 60% or more. It's about economies, not population.

And if sanctions truly kick in, Mexico and Brazil especially won't be trading long with Russia...

Re: The History of Sanctions

#20

Post by vixen99 »

sanxiyn wrote: post #10
Cthulhu_ wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does anyone believe the EU and US are capable of and willing to degrade the Russian economy to the point of mass famine? Capable of yes, willing to no, but at this point it may not be up to them; if Russian logistics fails, people may starve before it's even known.

Why would Russian logistics fail?

Their military logistics have not worked well to date much to the surprise of many.
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