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Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

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Re: Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

#51
post #43

Right out of the gate, the paper is begging the question by stating that these are 'vehicles.'

"Estimating Flight Characteristics of Anomalous Unidentified Aerial Vehicles" "Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) partially identified as being unknown anomalous aircraft, referred to as Unidentified Anomalous Vehicles (UAVs) or Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs)" Are you referring to the use of a commonly accepted initialism, 'UAV', as them 'begging the question'? Otherwise, it took about 33% of the paper for them…

> Are you referring to the use of a commonly accepted initialism, 'UAV', as them 'begging the question'?

I've heard 'UFO' in the common vernacular in this context, but UAV isn't one I'm familiar with. UAV is the common term for a drone, not a UFO.

Meanwhile regardless of how long it takes them to use 'vehicles' a second time in the paper, it's right there in the title.

Re: Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

#52

It was news to me that in the Nimitz event ballistic missile defense radar was actually observing the UAVs in low Earth orbit days before the fighter jet encounter. Truly wild stuff. If I had to hazard a guess, these are unmanned (unaliened?) probes, the same ones that have been here for centuries or more. They may not even know or care what humans are or what we're up to. Maybe they keep dipping to the water to take…

I had not caught that bit before, either: > The main incident occurred on 14 November 2004, but several days earlier, radar operators on the USS Princeton were detecting UAPs appearing on radar at about 80,000+ feet altitude to the north of CSG11 in the vicinity of Santa Catalina and San Clemente Islands. Senior Chief Kevin Day informed us that the Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) radar systems had detected the UAPs i…

In the "GIMBAL" video the second operator mentions something similar, "there's a whole fleet of them, look on the ASA"

Re: Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

#53
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When stabilized against the ocean some of the things the pilots said were pulling impossible G levels of acceleration were actually flying in a straight line: https://www.metabunk.org/data/MetaMirrorCache/49d95870dca331... Some of the other high g-force examples turned out to be an FOV change of the camera footage when toggling IR.

what does traveling in a straight line have to do with acceleration?

Straight line with continuous speed has no acceleration. They were saying it violently swerved around inducing acceleration/g-forces from turning.

Re: Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

#54

It was news to me that in the Nimitz event ballistic missile defense radar was actually observing the UAVs in low Earth orbit days before the fighter jet encounter. Truly wild stuff. If I had to hazard a guess, these are unmanned (unaliened?) probes, the same ones that have been here for centuries or more. They may not even know or care what humans are or what we're up to. Maybe they keep dipping to the water to take…

> the same ones that have been here for centuries or more

HN. Shark. Jumping now..

Re: Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

#55

It was news to me that in the Nimitz event ballistic missile defense radar was actually observing the UAVs in low Earth orbit days before the fighter jet encounter. Truly wild stuff. If I had to hazard a guess, these are unmanned (unaliened?) probes, the same ones that have been here for centuries or more. They may not even know or care what humans are or what we're up to. Maybe they keep dipping to the water to take…

Assuming this is all true, I wonder if this is how wild dolphins feel when they have an encounter with friendly human beings? It almost feels like playful behavior. Like the UAPs are flying alongside the fighters the way we might swim with dolphins. Tweaking our noses a bit too. "Look how much faster than you we are. Look how we know your secret little patrol point." It would be sinister and deeply threatening if paired with any demonstration of ill-intent, and perhaps it should be read as such. But it doesn't feel that way to me. It feels very much like the brief fun little games people play during incidental encounters with non-dangerous wild animals sometimes. Imagine a man hiking along a trail in a line with a dozen friends, who notices an interesting lizard on a log and stops to look as his friends continue on without him. The man pokes the lizard a little, to see how it reacts, and it predictably scurries off. He then follows his friends, soon disappearing into what is an impossible-to-reach distance from the lizard's perspective, and he never gives the little lizard another thought. We are lizards compared to any intelligence capable of achieving these levels of power output (1100GW in seconds!), if this study's estimates are correct. Maybe we just got poked in passing.

Re: Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

#56
post #6

Here's my most recent thought. Pilots spent years up there and the only thing they see are other planes. If they see something it must be a plane, from the size they can estimate the distance. But when they suddenly see smaller drone, their pilot-brain thinks it's a plane, but because it is much smaller than a plane, they think it must be far away. And when it flys same speed as plane, in "projected" large distance t…

The odd thing about the Nimitz story is that it wasn't just pilots, but an entire carrier group, which was undergoing initial training/practical operation of it's brand new Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC)[1], which essentially allows various ships and aircraft to combine or fuse and radar data.. A plane for example could radar lock and fire a missile at something it's radar doesn't see.

Pilot error is definitely possible, but multiple systems also failing at the same time seems less likely. If it is a sensor issue, it seems to have persisted into more recent versions of the system and their exercises.[2] On one hand it's possible it's due to working out kinks with new systems. On the other if you had craft and you wanted to see how well it could perform against CEC radar it would have been a pretty good time to do so. Of course it's possible even given all that the whole thing is bogus.

[1]https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/ADA471258.pdf Page 19

[2]https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28305/carrier-group-in...

[2]https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28231/multiple-f-a-18-...

Re: Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

#57
post #43

Right out of the gate, the paper is begging the question by stating that these are 'vehicles.'

"Estimating Flight Characteristics of Anomalous Unidentified Aerial Vehicles" "Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs) partially identified as being unknown anomalous aircraft, referred to as Unidentified Anomalous Vehicles (UAVs) or Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs)" Are you referring to the use of a commonly accepted initialism, 'UAV', as them 'begging the question'? Otherwise, it took about 33% of the paper for them…

When I google this term, the only site on the first page of results that uses 'Unidentified Anomalous Vehicles' is this paper.

Even if UAV were an actually common term, it is still question-begging to use this term as opposed to the far, far more common 'UFO'.

Re: Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

#58
I think it's funny that lots of the replies here are like:

- The data is wrong, these are not as described.

That's one possible response to new data. Some others are:

- The data is right, how could this be?

- The data is inconclusive, here's how to make it better.

What I wonder is:

- How would you know?

- The first response is unscientific because it prevents further inquiry by the assumption: there's nothing interesting here.

- The latter two are scientific because they encourage further investigation.

The "how would you know" point is important. It's the data denier versus dozens of observers and instruments. Somehow they were all fooled, but the data denier is the one who sees clearly?

Actually, I think data denier is not a great term here, by imprecision. I think what's really going one is more like: fear of new data. Indicated by the bold and frankly ridiculous explanations conjured to hold the existing world view together in the face of new data.

Some examples of the perceptual gymnastics are quite funny: chewing gum was stuck to the sensor (erm, presumably to all sensors on all ships and aircraft?); or, it was actually an insect crawling on the sensor lens (at the same time as the humans were hallucinating in sync, no doubt?); or, the sensors tracked closer birds and erred on their size and speed (while the humans, simultaneously saw drones, I guess?); or, it was atmospheric phenomena dropping, in groups of 10 to 20, from low earth orbit to 'cruising altitude' (pretty crafty weather, right?) -- AFAIK no one yet has claimed it was birds, insects or chewing gum dropping from low earth orbit, but there's still hope we might see such hilarious 'explanations' at some point.

Actually I prefer the term, "escapation" to "explanation" here, because it's less explaining something, than escaping from explaining it.

I don't want to throw shade against the (coinage alert) dataphobes among us (they may even be someone you know, someone even in your own family...oh goodness), because their effort is fundamentally a noble one: protect the world we know. From all influences and enemies, foreign and domestic (and now alien, I guess?). And very human: for the new is scary. It means we are in the unknown, it means maybe we cannot rely on what we now merely thought we knew. (I'm reminded of a Beatles song here, anyone care to guess which one).

In the light of new data and facing it head on, the world has shifted underneath our feet. Proverbial security rug pulled out from under us. We're...ahem...floating in space. In a...erm...zero g environment. Without bearings. Not knowing which way is up or down. So it is human. A response to fear. Which explains some of the anger that sometimes erupts, too. A noble, if misguided effort, to hold onto what is, at all costs.

But it also is connected to another human frailty: confirmation bias - the bias everyone exhibits for confirming what they know, over discovering what they don't.

I'm not sure how we "get over" this dataphobia as a collective--even in the face of new evidence it shows robust persistence--and I'm not sure what cue the dataphobes will eventually take, to change their views (nor from whom they may take it), but, you know--while it lasts, it is entertaining, in a harmless way (not laughing at the dataphobes themselves, but at the Herculean effort of there ideas in the face of data). And it provides refuge for those who cannot clip at the quick pace of change we now face. Not everyone has to find solace in that path, but for those who do--for the stragglers who lag behind our current pace--there's no shame in it. It's very human. And what better "antidote" (if one is needed) to all the new "alien" information upon us, than to double down on being "extra" human?

So, friends, be not unkind to the sufferers of dataphobia among us. One day, on some topic, we may be dataphobes too.

(Tone guidance: delivered with sincerity and only a little bit of gentle friendly prodding/ribbing)

Re: Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

#59

It was news to me that in the Nimitz event ballistic missile defense radar was actually observing the UAVs in low Earth orbit days before the fighter jet encounter. Truly wild stuff. If I had to hazard a guess, these are unmanned (unaliened?) probes, the same ones that have been here for centuries or more. They may not even know or care what humans are or what we're up to. Maybe they keep dipping to the water to take…

There are a lot of radars tracking objects in low earth orbit. If there were objects the Nimitz radar could see in orbit "for centuries or more" we'd have seen them a very long time ago.

Radars are probabilistic systems, and with military radars these days the processing is quite complex and sophisticated. There's a going on to reject clutter. This sometimes goes haywire for perfectly banal natural reasons. Assuming alien probes should be item 10 thousand something on your list of likely causes, if not way lower.

Re: Flight characteristics of anomalous unidentified aerial vehicles (2019)

#60
post #55

It was news to me that in the Nimitz event ballistic missile defense radar was actually observing the UAVs in low Earth orbit days before the fighter jet encounter. Truly wild stuff. If I had to hazard a guess, these are unmanned (unaliened?) probes, the same ones that have been here for centuries or more. They may not even know or care what humans are or what we're up to. Maybe they keep dipping to the water to take…

Assuming this is all true, I wonder if this is how wild dolphins feel when they have an encounter with friendly human beings? It almost feels like playful behavior. Like the UAPs are flying alongside the fighters the way we might swim with dolphins. Tweaking our noses a bit too. "Look how much faster than you we are. Look how we know your secret little patrol point." It would be sinister and deeply threatening if pai…

My favorite theory comes from Douglas Adams where the UFO sightings are the alien equivalent of teenagers going for a joy ride making fun of the weird animals.
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