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Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)

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Re: Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)

#71
High gas prices certainly preceded the housing crises, but good luck convincing anyone it caused.

Very subjective opinion ahead- High gas prices is probably this single most effective way to curb greenhouse gases and I am shocked that Biden and his climate Czar aren’t embracing it. As it stands, even prices doubling or tripling, I would conjecture that a very significant portion of Americans can make significant changes to their driving patterns at the great expense of a mere “minor inconvenience”. Carpooling to work and school, taking mass transit where available, planning errands/trips for efficiency, driving the more economical car in the family unit when no one else is using it (I.e. drive the wife’s wagon on the weekends instead of the big truck). A LOT more people can be driving motorcycles/ scooters. Complaining about high gas cost is almost a form of conspicuous consumption.

At least around city, most people do not think twice about fuel cost of running errands all over town, they just complain about the bi-weekly fill up. For one example, some families schlep their kids all over the city every day for a very packed schedule of events; carpool more or just don’t design up for such an erratic day from the first place. Don’t sign up for that basketball league with a daily practice on the opposite side of town from school. Don’t take as many YOLO trips up to Lake Tahoe or Napa or whatever… or at least pile in with other people to reduce the number unit cost.

Until people begin to reorganize their livelihoods and consumption patterns, then gas prices aren’t really too high, it’s just more than we are used to spending, and I’m not at all convinced an extra $100/mo at the pump is really that big of an impact for majority of folks to behave differently. We just complain instead.

(Caveat- Low income workers have a different story, but I anecdotally also don’t not see an embrace of more efficient transport means amongst low income population in my city. Late model luxury vehicles and large suvs and trucks remain very popular in low income areas. Gas cost is simply not a significant enough portion of the equation as it stands)

Re: Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)

#72
Economist here.

For what it’s worth I cannot find evidence that this paper was ever published, so I think it’s safe to say they did not convince the rest of the profession that this was the (or even a) trigger.

I’m sure it’s being shared to suggest that high current gas prices will do the same now. I doubt anyone has any good reason to be confident in such a suggestion.

Re: Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)

#73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It can't be discharged through bankruptcy (thanks Joe!), but neither can we squeeze blood from stone. Debtors who don't have the funds to both eat and make their payments will not make their payments.

I assume that by Joe you mean Joe Biden? Student loans haven't been something you can discharge in bankruptcy since the 1970s. If you want to thank a US president (as opposed to, say, the legislature that actually passes these laws), you should be thanking Gerald.

They are probably referring to then Senetor Joe Biden and his support for the 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act, which substantially broadened the set of student loans that could not be discharged in bankruptcy.

Re: Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)

#74
post #4

> "The key word is, 'triggered,'" said JunJie Wu, an OSU economist and one of the authors of the paper. "This theory recognizes the role of subprime mortgages and lax lending practices as inflating the housing bubble, but high gasoline prices provided the trigger that burst the bubble." Are we in another bubble? And if so what is the theory for why? I assume subprime and lax lending wouldn't be the cause after the le…

A bubble is a purely analytical judgment in hindsight. Will at some-point prices be lower then now. Probably yes? Maybe in 50 years? Maybe tomorrow?

Many people have many theory why something is a bubble or not. And what time frame prices have to go down to call yourself correct.

Anybody that claims to know is a charlatan. Many of those get proven right once in a while.

Re: Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)

#77
post #10

Now we have high oil prices (not yet at the high) also with general (corporate induced) inflation, combined with an even greater separation of wealth. All things that point to a a recession again. But war is the variable here.

I don't have the figures handy, but based on what I am seeing I suspect we are entering a period of the biggest wealth gap in recent history between the rich and everybody else. Massive, massive asset inflation, for those that own things - and the bigger and more you own, the more you have benefited, and then massive inflation in consumer/everyday products like food, energy and clothing and for those seeking to buy t…

I feel this. 2021-2022 has been insane as a person looking to buy a new house, car, and get kids into daycare. Luckily we already own a house with good equity, have a good car, and have childcare. But we’re looking at moving and upgrading a few of these things, and let me tell you. The demand for housing and vehicles is beyond anything I could have imagined. Houses routinely selling for 30-50% over list. Car dealerships selling new cars at $10k over MSRP because the two year old version of that car is selling for the price of a new one used.

If we didn’t have existing assets like a house or quality cars we could trade in I don’t know what we would do. Just having two good salaries, a lot of cash, and high credit isn’t cutting. You need assets.

Re: Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)

#78
post #64
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a bubble because for the most part people are buying homes that they can pay the mortgage on. High energy prices are also going to spike inflation which eventually means rates rise. If that happens owners with their 2.75% mortgages aren't going to be inclined to sell. Coupled with higher new construction costs the housing market probably continues to rise.

> Not a bubble because for the most part people are buying homes that they can pay the mortgage on. I think you're right that this won't be an exact repeat of 2010 — that era was just crazy for anyone who understands financial responsibility, more like a precursor to the cryptocurrency number-goes-up salesbros now than the current market — but there are some worrying factors I'd consider before buying. I don't think…

> 2. Remote work is here to stay — not 100% but enough to cause shifts in buying habits.

This is one thing that could start a collapse and it is why many real estate companies are pushing a "office work is needed for collaboration" narrative. The real estate market for offices

https://www.nar.realtor/commercial-real-estate-market-trends...

The commercial real estate market is recovering but remains weak compared to conditions before the COVID-19 pandemic, according to NAR commercial members who responded to the 2021 Q1 Commercial Real Estate Quarterly Market Survey and industry data.

Re: Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)

#79

Taking a car that does 25mpg, at $2/gal gas you can do a 100 mile round trip commute each workday for $160/month in gas. At $4/gal it goes up to $320, etc. That doesn't seem like a big enough jump to me to cause people to default en masse on their mortgages and trigger the crisis - compared to the teaser rates which probably made mortage payments jump by $500-1000+ when expired?

From memory, people were getting large mortgages they couldn't afford once the teaser rate had expired (usually 1 - 2 years). The reason they were able to get these mortgages is because lenders were doing little or no due diligence.

This did coincide with a period when fuel prices were rising but, I think, this was more a case of 'the last straw breaking the camel's back' rather than a direct causation of financial distress.

Re: Economists say that high gas prices triggered the housing crisis in 2007 (2012)

#80
post #51
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

makes me wonder if student loan default en masse could follow this time.

I'd really like to know why this is getting negged. Student loan debt is a massive number, and if significant numbers of people simply stopped paying, it going to have a major toll.

Student loan debt has been in de facto default for awhile now in terms of collecting the interest payments. So we already "know" the impact that would have. It also CANT be defaulted in the sense of extinguishing the debt, because the government will just garnish future wages and earnings, including social security checks.
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