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The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

economist.com

121–130 of 140 posts

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#121
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What a stupid thing to say. Have you ever read about the currency crisis? This is from a Wikipedia article you could have found in 30 seconds; if you had, perhaps you would have changed your mind about posting, saving us all the pain of knowing that someone on HN is capable of posting such a glib, worthless comment: Several thousand newly homeless and jobless Argentines found work as cartoneros, or cardboard collecto…

Do you think what happened was Argentina's worst-case scenario, given the magnitude of its crisis? Plenty of knowledgeble people [1] think crag's comment is not a stupid thing to say. [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/opinion/argentinas-turnaro...

Why did you post that? Did you even read it?

That opinion piece talks about how Argentina recovered from the crisis, and it definitely does not say that defaulting on their debt was the right step. If anything, it is a resounding endorsement for the Obama plan and a rebuke of austerity in times of crisis.

Argentina has regained its prosperity partly out of dumb luck: a commodity price boom has vastly benefitted this soy, corn and wheat producer.

The government intervened to keep the value of its currency low, which boosts local industry by making Argentina’s exports cheaper abroad while keeping foreign imports expensive.

It then taxed those imports and exports, using the money to pay for a New Deal-like public works binge, increasing government spending to 25 percent of G.D.P. today from 14 percent in 2003.

Why have Argentines embraced bigger government? In part because the preceding era showed how poorly austerity measures — the sort now being pushed by conservatives in the United States — promote growth. In the late 1990s, Argentina cut government spending drastically on the order of its lenders at the International Monetary Fund.

For one thing, extreme cost-cutting during a stagnant economic period will only inhibit growth. And government spending to promote local industry, pro-job infrastructure programs and unemployment benefits does not turn a country into a kind of Soviet parody. It puts money in the pockets of average citizens, who then spend it and spur the economy.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#122
post #31
post #12

I agree with OstiaAntica. This Economist article is a thinly veiled call for more debt and more inflationary spending. Who stands in the way of "recovery" ? The obstinate Germans (who learned the lesson of hyperinflation last century) with the only sound Euro economy, i.e. they will be paying for the bailouts. In the USA its the Tea Party and the few Republicans with a spine who recognize that the problem is the mass…

Can you please explain your theory of how massive cuts to government and the ensuing massive layoffs of government workers, and the government buying less stuff from businesses, is going to fix the economy? Please take into account in your explanation that the US is able to borrow at record low rates right now.

> Please take into account in your explanation that the US is able to borrow at record low rates right now.

Someday we must pay that borrowed money back. I'd rather not borrow any more.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The horror... you might just end up like Germany or France.

70%+ taxes, no thanks. I thought this was HN, not reddit...

According to Wikipedia, the German and French personal tax rates are in the area of 50%:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_around_the_world

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

70%+ taxes, no thanks. I thought this was HN, not reddit...

According to Wikipedia, the German and French personal tax rates are in the area of 50%: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_around_the_world

This doesn't include VAT and increased taxes in other areas, so personal income tax might be 50%, but you are actually paying a much higher rate.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

letting the banks fail, recapitalizing new banks, and basically rebooting the financial system Please tell us how that works in practice rather than in theory. I really, really want to know how you just 'reboot' the financial system without massive disruption to retail banking or the payments system. How do you 're'capitalize a new bank? If you just mean create new banks, who is running these banks? I mean, I'd like…

> I really, really want to know how you just 'reboot' the financial system without massive disruption to retail banking or the payments system. There will be massive disruption in any case. It can come in the format of recapitalization (Iceland) or inflation due to inflating their insolvency away (Latin America). > How do you 're'capitalize a new bank? OP meant recapitalize the failed banks. Short version: 1. Fire th…

[deleted]

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#126
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you think what happened was Argentina's worst-case scenario, given the magnitude of its crisis? Plenty of knowledgeble people [1] think crag's comment is not a stupid thing to say. [1] http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/opinion/argentinas-turnaro...

Why did you post that? Did you even read it? That opinion piece talks about how Argentina recovered from the crisis, and it definitely does not say that defaulting on their debt was the right step. If anything, it is a resounding endorsement for the Obama plan and a rebuke of austerity in times of crisis. Argentina has regained its prosperity partly out of dumb luck: a commodity price boom has vastly benefitted this…

Are you going to answer my point, or just the degree of relevance of my citation? You presented Argentina's dire situation as a consequence of its currency crisis, when in fact devaluation (i.e., the "currency crisis") was a great relief. One, by the way, Greece is unable to do unless it abandons the Euro. One, by the way, Argentina was unable to do by law during nine years [1].

Did you read craig's short comment? It talks about devaluation, not default. Now, it so happens that Argentina chose to pay just what it owed the IMF and effectively get out of "the world credit establishment" with a big, unpaid debt. Guess what? No Argentinean government could have set in motion state intervention/"stimuli" of any kind had most of its resources been devoted to pay an unbearable foreign debt. (Debt interests, in fact.) As you surely know, even though Argentina's debt is proportionally [2] smaller than the that of the US, the payback rates it gets are prohibitive, unlike America's 3%.

Just for clarity, what was your point? That Argentina would have been better off without default? Without devaluation? Both? Let me reiterate, there is nothing stupid about thinking otherwise...

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_peso#Peso_convertible...

[2] https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/...

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to Wikipedia, the German and French personal tax rates are in the area of 50%: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tax_rates_around_the_world

This doesn't include VAT and increased taxes in other areas, so personal income tax might be 50%, but you are actually paying a much higher rate.

You're making numbers up and don't actually know what the aggregate taxes for an average consumer in France, Germany and the US are.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#128
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why did you post that? Did you even read it? That opinion piece talks about how Argentina recovered from the crisis, and it definitely does not say that defaulting on their debt was the right step. If anything, it is a resounding endorsement for the Obama plan and a rebuke of austerity in times of crisis. Argentina has regained its prosperity partly out of dumb luck: a commodity price boom has vastly benefitted this…

Are you going to answer my point, or just the degree of relevance of my citation? You presented Argentina's dire situation as a consequence of its currency crisis, when in fact devaluation (i.e., the "currency crisis") was a great relief. One, by the way, Greece is unable to do unless it abandons the Euro. One, by the way, Argentina was unable to do by law during nine years [1]. Did you read craig's short comment? It…

My point is that default, or any other sort of fuck-the-system type of approach (e.g. let the largest banks become insolvent) is not a serious option. First, the time for such a thing has passed; second, even if it were now the time for it, give me expensive stimulus and bailout every day of the week. Sovereign debt and deficit spending are not what's killing us -- 70% of GDP is half what Argentina's debt was and it's well within acceptable limits. I believe that calls for austerity are foolishly, and derived from free market dogma.

crag suggested that the mere fact that Argentina recovered from such a staggering blow to its economy was indicative of something -- the implication, it seems, is that the fact of recovery is enough to warrant severe measures such as default.

That's stupid, for the reasons I laid out above.

You, however, seem to be supporting the original reasoning by employing an appeal to authority and suggesting that certain credible thinkers agree with crag's premise. However the one example you provided did not bear evidence of that. I don't know what else your point is -- I don't care to debate Argentina except that you seem to be using it as an example of something.

I don't know about "what if" and the hypothetical situation in which Argentina did not default. I know what did happen --default, followed by an IMF-imposed austerity program, led to 50% poverty. It's only when people got behind so-called "big government" measures that they actually started to see real recovery.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This doesn't include VAT and increased taxes in other areas, so personal income tax might be 50%, but you are actually paying a much higher rate.

You're making numbers up and don't actually know what the aggregate taxes for an average consumer in France, Germany and the US are.

..and you are basing an individuals total tax rate based on income tax alone, which doesn't account for the many other taxes that someone has to pay.

I suppose if you made money, didn't live in a house, and didn't spend your money in any way, your tax rate would be 50% in France. This just isn't the case for the average consumer.

Re: The world economy is heading towards a black hole unless bold action taken

#130
post #45

building a firewall around illiquid but solvent countries like Italy I'm not entirely sure I understand the distinction being made between illiquidity and insolvency here, could someone please explain it? It seems to me that if you are in a state in which a high enough interest rate on your debt will put you in a death spiral from which you cannot feasibly recover, then your problem is bigger than liquidity.

That's exactly the distinction being made. Italy's debt is highish but manageable; it budget deficit is small. If it can borrow at reasonable rates for the next few years, it's not in danger of default. That's illiquidity. Compare to Greece, which, even if it could get loans at low interest, is never going to be able to repay what it already owes. That's insolvent.

So the only thing that really separates Italy from Greece is the market's expectation that Germany won't let any of the other sovereign nations default. Absent that expectation, Italy and Spain are one good speculative attack (a la Soros vs. the British Pound) away from insolvency.
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