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China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

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Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#191

Post by throw0101a »

zthrowaway wrote: post #156
throw0101a wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And having a firearm to protect your life in that rare situation is still important… Firearms in the home actually increase your odds of death: > Access to firearms is associated with risk for completed suicide and being the victim of homicide. * https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M13-1301?articleid=1... Specific examples of domestic violence against women: * https://www.vox.com/2015/10/1/18000522/guns-domesti…

Okay... that doesn't change a thing though. People still have the right to defend themselves. I don't care if someone is stupid with a weapon. You can find occurrences of a weapon, tool, vehicles, any object, being used improperly and in an unsafe manner that can cause harm or death. All you illustrate is that being a responsible gun owner is important (which is not debated whatsoever in any firearms community.) The…

> Okay... that doesn't change a thing though. People still have the right to defend themselves.

The numbers seem to indicate that having a gun is actually more detrimental, on a 'net' basis, to one's well-being than not having a gun. Having a gun is more dangerous for you and yours:

> But about 30 careful studies show more guns are linked to more crimes: murders, rapes, and others. Far less research shows that guns help.

* https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/more-guns-do-not-...

> We use epidemiological theory to explain why the “false positive” problem for rare events can lead to large overestimates of the incidence of rare diseases or rare phenomena such as self-defense gun use. We then try to validate the claims of many millions of annual self-defense uses against available evidence. We find that the claim of many millions of annual self-defense gun uses by American citizens is invalid.

* https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/hicrc/firearms-research/gun-thr...

> Results. We found no robust, statistically significant correlation between gun ownership and stranger firearm homicide rates. However, we found a positive and significant association between gun ownership and nonstranger firearm homicide rates. The incidence rate ratio for nonstranger firearm homicide rate associated with gun ownership was 1.014 (95% confidence interval = 1.009, 1.019).

* https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC4167105/

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#192

Post by throw0101a »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #166
throw0101a wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And having a firearm to protect your life in that rare situation is still important… Firearms in the home actually increase your odds of death: > Access to firearms is associated with risk for completed suicide and being the victim of homicide. * https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M13-1301?articleid=1... Specific examples of domestic violence against women: * https://www.vox.com/2015/10/1/18000522/guns-domesti…

Riding a car will greatly increase the odds of your death. So what? Also all the studies you've cited don't prove causality, they prove correlation. Maybe it's the other way around? Maybe living in a more dangerous place increases the likelihood of people owning guns?

> Riding a car will greatly increase the odds of your death. So what?

If you don't want you or a family member to become a firearms statistic don't own a gun, especially since owning one doesn't seem to be useful against strangers:

> Results. We found no robust, statistically significant correlation between gun ownership and stranger firearm homicide rates. However, we found a positive and significant association between gun ownership and nonstranger firearm homicide rates. The incidence rate ratio for nonstranger firearm homicide rate associated with gun ownership was 1.014 (95% confidence interval = 1.009, 1.019).

* https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC4167105/

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#193

Post by davidjytang »

bllguo wrote: post #43
T-A wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fixating on TSMC is for myopic tech geeks. Yes, it's important, but not nearly as important in the grand scheme of things as: - A thriving Chinese democracy showing the mainland that no, they are not intrinsically incompatible with freedom. - The credibility of the US as an ally to other Asian countries. - Taiwan's strategic location.

I'd counter with your opinion being exceedingly naive.. "thriving" is quite generous considering their economy and reliance on foreign powers. And culturally they're making the same mistake as Hong Kong in alienating mainlanders. don't think we have reconcilable opinions on US motivations but hey I'll gladly be wrong as long as there's no war

uh... Taiwan GDP is in roughly 90 percentile in the world.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#194

Post by davidjytang »

atlantas wrote: post #48

This is where the rubber meets the road. Let's register some predictions: If China invades Taiwan, will Apple and Disney exit China as they did with Russia?

I think Tim Cook will pick up the pace to diversify the plants so that he would have the option.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#195

Post by SkyMarshal »

zdragnar wrote: post #137
SkyMarshal wrote: post #116

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. Not necessarily. CPC is still waiting to see what the US and NATO do in response to the Russian invasion, and especially Putin's threats of nuclear escalation. If China perceives that all the West will do is sanctions on Russia, but no direct military intervention to p…

We're still buying millions of dollars worth of oil from Russia daily because our government is afraid of blowback from further energy price inflation. Economic sanctions on China would absolutely cripple us. I don't doubt that, if they were committed to the idea, the CPC would likely be willing to ride out whatever we actually cobble together in response. They've been pushing heavily for self reliance in every indus…

The most extreme scenario is decoupling Asia, Europe, and North America from China. As in, they all shift their manufacturing elsewhere and block all imports from China. That would of course drastically harm the West, at least temporarily, but it would be far more devastating to China and the mass uprisings could end CPC.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#196

Post by somewhereoutth »

kerneloftruth wrote: post #121
somewhereoutth wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. They're being unplugged from the 21st century.

Or have they been? "Unplugged" is a good metaphor, for they currently control the vast majority of energy to all of Europe[1]. We're turning Russia into a gigantic version of North Korea, and with the same major ally, China. What happens if Russia diverts its gas sales to China -- it's Europe that'll be unplugged. 1. https://www.loc.gov/resource/g5701h.ct003365/?r=0.025,0.336,...

Your reference is from 2008.

Certainly recent events have concentrated minds regarding energy security in Europe, and likely self sufficiency (or at least better sources) will be achieved, much as food security was after ww2.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#197

Post by kingcharles »

kerneloftruth wrote: post #121
somewhereoutth wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. They're being unplugged from the 21st century.

Or have they been? "Unplugged" is a good metaphor, for they currently control the vast majority of energy to all of Europe[1]. We're turning Russia into a gigantic version of North Korea, and with the same major ally, China. What happens if Russia diverts its gas sales to China -- it's Europe that'll be unplugged. 1. https://www.loc.gov/resource/g5701h.ct003365/?r=0.025,0.336,...

If China is the only available customer, how much do you think China will pay? They will have Russia by the balls. They will pay pennies on the Ruble.

Europe will piss and moan for a while as prices go up, but Europe is rich enough to route around this problem.

I agree though, we're turning Russia into a giant North Korea. What that means for the world, I don't know. In fact, I would say they're getting cut off worse than North Korea. Some of these companies canceling Russia probably operate (with permission) in North Korea.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#198

Post by fivefifty »

nulld3v wrote: post #133
bingohbangoh wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I legitimately don't understand where all these "Ukraine is obviously winning" takes are coming from. If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weapons to civilians [0], forming penal battalions [1], or lie about receiving NATO planes. [2] If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be inflating death counts to be larger than the US involvement in Afghanistan, a 20 year period of time. [3,4] If Ukraine was doin…

But is radiosvoboda even Ukrainian? I thought they were American. Was the Ghost of Kyiv story made up by the Ukrainians even? How do we know that? Also, Ukraine is doing well, considering their situation.

I'm fairly sure the Ghost of Kyiv came from a DCS (digital combat simulator) player originally and is actually based on this short DCS movie called 'The Ghost' which has very similar core details. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pM8tXUz2q0c

Also some of the original footage uploaded that was purported to be of the Ghost of Kyiv was from DCS and I believe was even admitted as such by the uploader but like most rumours it has since taken a life of it's own and the exploits become increasingly more exaggerated over time.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#199

Post by KolenCh »

bufferoverflow wrote: post #21

But this war in Ukraine showed one simple truth: if you arm the population, the invasion can only destroy the infrastructure. You can't win over people's minds by killing their loved ones, their neighboors. And you can't keep it under control if every citizen has a gun. You install a puppet government, they will be dead within a week. This is the only way to protect Taiwan. Give them guns and ammo. And teach them tha…

The situation in Taiwan is different. There are polls in the past indicating non-negligible amount of Taiwanese (I forgot the numbers, but IIRC it is closer to 50-50 split than only a small fraction) support “merging back” to China. (That was before 2019 Hong Kong incident though.)

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#200

Post by coryrc »

nanidin wrote: post #145
coryrc wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every electronic thing made has parts from China. I can't build a car in Germany and export to America without having done trade with China first. Who cares if I could still get Irish butter if I can't get replacement parts for my MRI machine?

When I worked at Garmin, they made all of the aviation electronics in house on production lines in Kansas due to FAA requirements. I don’t know how deep the “must be made in USA” requirements go though.

Where are the resistors, capacitors, power ICs coming from?
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