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Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

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Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#32
Verified by two anonymous sources, according to a “Bellingcat exec director”, who in turn has been verified by Twitter (which amounts to what, I do not know — verified their name? Their job? That they are competent at their job?)

A little tenuous, but maybe this Bellingcat employee is super famous and renowned?

It would be interesting if people here can come up with a better chain of verification. Until then, it’s certainly a fun bit of alt-fiction / creative writing.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#34

All information in this note is fake. Check facts. Without emotions. Update: Look for rebuttals, not confirmations, to verify information.

Well thank you for that incredibly useful contribution. No, not all information in this note is fake, that is complete nonsense, so now, if you don't mind, please point out exactly which bits you believe are fake and why?

There are no references to verified facts in the note. This is just a private opinion. If one person came up with something, it does not mean that everyone thinks so.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#35
post #25

>The Blitzkrieg failed. It's entirely impossible to complete the job at this point. If in the first 3 days Zelensky and some holders of power were captured, all key buildings in Kiev were taken, and the order to surrender was given, then yes. Resistance would be minimal. that is their main miscalculation. The FSB in Russia these days are fat lazy pigs who can only racket business and screw the lives of basically defe…

[deleted]

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#37

It looks genuine, but it could also be a fake written as part of Ukrainian information war. While everything in this article looks very plausible, it could just as well be written by an outsider with good understanding of Russian politics. In that case it could be a bit skewed to paint a more optimistic picture (or if you will pessimistic from Russia's perspective).

As mentioned a lot of places, Ukraine psy ops aren't as long. Longer = more chances for mistakes. This has been vouched for by multiple people with contacts in the FSB who all say this is most likely genuine. One of the people to vouch for it is a Bellingcat employee.

It also mentioned a false flag op to make Ukraine look like it's been developing nuclear weapons. News just broke of that today from Russian media, entirely in line with the letter. Huge coincidence if it's fake.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#38
post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

I suspect the signal to noise ratio on any such discussion would be high. There are knowledgable folks in HN on non tech topics (as well as users living in Ukraine and Russia, presuming either are still able to access the site) but any discussion would likely be overrun with folks that have no particular knowledge but strong opinions they want to share instead.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People in Russia are human too. A lot of those who go into "national security" type jobs start out with their heart in the right place. I can't imagine what it is like to slowly realise that, actually, you're the bad ones.

It's a matter of priorities. An FSB official will see world hunger as an opportunity, and will think of this as "so these people completely unrelated to us don't want to go hungry, what can they give us in return?" This is since during most of the contemporary history of Russia, other countries saw a lot of different opportunities here and very few people.

No post body was provided.

Re: Analysis of the situation in Russia, claimed to be by an active FSB analyst

#40
post #29
post #21

It is unfortunte that discussion about the Ukraine war is so absent from HN. I understand that it is a complex topic that may drown HN's real purpose, but the HN readership use to have really insightful takes on most topics.

I think it's understandable. It's very hard to believe whatever either side is reporting. And before you say that's what Russian bots want you to believe, I'll add I lost my trust after Iraq war reporting (like who in their right mind confuses plot of The Rock (film) and WMD in real life), and then after Trump's victory in 2016 (media I was following at the time were making it out to be a sure fire thing for Hillary…

>It's very hard to believe whatever either side is reporting.

You have more then Russian and Ukrainian news, there are reporters from other countries present on the ground, probably mostly English sources are link but I assure you for example there are Romanian reporters there and filming stuff, there are reporters filing refuges and asking questions. There were some Russian free press reports too you could have read/watched until recently too(maybe dig in archives)

There are trolls posting fake images but if you ignore the hot new posts from social media you can get a good enough picture of reality.

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