China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine • Hacker News Board

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#161

Post by stickfigure » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 3:34 AM UTC

coryrc wrote: post #90

stickfigure wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll keep posting this list every time this subject comes up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa... China is 15-25% of the trade for those countries, but the west-aligned countries represent 80% of China's trade. A coordinated trade war would be vastly more devastating for China than the rest of the world. I don't say this gleefully - I hope it never happens.

Every electronic thing made has parts from China. I can't build a car in Germany and export to America without having done trade with China first. Who cares if I could still get Irish butter if I can't get replacement parts for my MRI machine?

Do you think those parts aren't currently being made elsewhere? South Korea is a powerhouse. The loss of China would be a capacity problem, sure. But market economies (aka price incentives) are terrifically good at solving capacity problems.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#162

Post by gruez » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 3:34 AM UTC

Supermancho wrote: post #62

sharikous wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For now. It's absolutely possible to keep a territory under your control by force if you look at the historical record. You can't extrapolate such a far fetched conclusion from one data point on how string the Ukraunian resistance seems in the first weeks of a war.

The Israeli's have managed to hold territory by force. The difference is that worldwide support was in favor of them instead of the Palestinians. I would say that you cannot hold a region by force alone unless you commit to multiple generations of occupation AND manage to maintain when superpowers oppose it.

> The Israeli's have managed to hold territory by force. The difference is that worldwide support was in favor of them instead of the Palestinians.

what? My impression is that "worldwide support" was in favor of the Palestinians.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_General_Assembl...

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#163

Post by yongjik » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 3:46 AM UTC

ipnon wrote: post #124

JadeNB wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> To counter this claim, I'd ask you to consider which of two similarly sized invasions was easier to achieve: D-Day and the invasion of Western Europe, or Operation Barbarossa and the invasion of Eastern Europe. You may also consider why the Nazis never made it to Great Britain, and why Great Britain has been insulated from the Great Wars of Europe more often than it has taken part in the conflicts. It seems that th…

Perhaps it would have been simply best to note that island nations are generally insulated from invasion in ways that continental nations are not. Great Britain had the long term national security to forge an empire while the continental nations of Europe were engaged in endless back-and-forth wars (often at the instigation of Great Britain). Japan had centuries of peaceful self-imposed isolation while the continenta…

It's pretty off-topic, but ...

> Japan had centuries of peaceful self-imposed isolation while the continental nations of China and Indochina were engaged in endless wars, which was utilized to build up an empire while safely protected by the Sea of Japan.

While Japan had a stable border, it also had many periods of feudal lords fighting each other. Also, the reason Japan became an Empire was that it received and internalized Western knowledges much earlier than many other countries (starting with Rangaku "Dutch learnings" in the 17th century), and later was forced to open its ports by Western powers, which resulted in disagreement over the nation's course, a series of bloody civil wars, and the Meiji Restoration, which made the emperor an iron-fisted ruler of a modern nation.

It's not exactly a story of an island enjoying isolated peace and suddenly emerging as a superpower. Korea was a country that enjoyed almost total isolation during the same period (16-19th centuries) and look where it got them.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#164

Post by anothernewdude » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 3:52 AM UTC

internet_user wrote: post #100

credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

>In 2014, Russia achieved a military miracle: they took over Crimea so quickly and without loss of blood, that they delivered a "fait accompli". Oh, how much would China like to replicate that in Taiwan. And that's what they were preparing for. That only seems like a miracle because you need to do more research into what Crimea actually is. Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine, only a paper "gift" to Ukranian SS…

> Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine

Such utter nonsense. Who did Russia take it from?

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#165

Post by stale2002 » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:00 AM UTC

jart wrote: post #110

stale2002 wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> ways to drive wedges between the US and Taiwan is a part of this strategy. If that is the strategy, then it is failing. Taiwan is more anti-unification than it has ever been, and the people there already consider themselves to be an independent country.

They consider themselves China actually. So maybe the Republic of China would prefer that the People's Republic of China ask to reunite with them.

No, they really don't.

The ruling party of Taiwan has already made statements that they already consider themselves to be independent from China.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#166

Post by bufferoverflow » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:01 AM UTC

throw0101a wrote: post #150

zthrowaway wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And having a firearm to protect your life in that rare situation is still important… The police are the cleanup crew, those first 5-10 minutes you’re on your own.

> And having a firearm to protect your life in that rare situation is still important… Firearms in the home actually increase your odds of death: > Access to firearms is associated with risk for completed suicide and being the victim of homicide. * https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M13-1301?articleid=1... Specific examples of domestic violence against women: * https://www.vox.com/2015/10/1/18000522/guns-domesti…

Riding a car will greatly increase the odds of your death. So what?

Also all the studies you've cited don't prove causality, they prove correlation. Maybe it's the other way around? Maybe living in a more dangerous place increases the likelihood of people owning guns?

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#167

Post by unmole » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:01 AM UTC

anothernewdude wrote: post #164

internet_user wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In 2014, Russia achieved a military miracle: they took over Crimea so quickly and without loss of blood, that they delivered a "fait accompli". Oh, how much would China like to replicate that in Taiwan. And that's what they were preparing for. That only seems like a miracle because you need to do more research into what Crimea actually is. Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine, only a paper "gift" to Ukranian SS…

> Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine Such utter nonsense. Who did Russia take it from?

Crimean Tartars?

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#168

Post by stickfigure » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:05 AM UTC

BbzzbB wrote: post #74

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #56

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I hope we live to see the conditions that make it plausible go away.

I do too, but how would that look like? I'm not sure how likely it is to when the incumbent empire and the aspiring one are both armed to the tits, neither of which will give up on their claim or their military. Even without confrontation they'll both keep force projecting. I think we just gotta hope there's mutual resistance to any physical escalation, either direct or by proxy, and that the competition remains econ…

This is a repeat of the same misleading narrative that Putin is trying to push. Ukraine is not "NATO vs Russia", it's "The Ukranians vs Putin".

Similarly, the Taiwan conflict is not "US vs China". It's "the people of Taiwan vs the CCP" (possibly "vs the people of China" though it's hard to say in a country without democracy). There's no question about how the Taiwanese feel; they vote on it every few years in free elections. Americans are mere supporting cast. We have our opinions, but if the Taiwanese all voted to embrace Xi, we'd shake our heads and walk away.

The status quo favors Taiwan. Xi knows this, but without actually going through the process of building a huge navy and launching a military invasion, the de-facto result is that Taiwan continues to be an independent nation. Another couple generations and even China will forget about the big island across the sea. I'm fine with that.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#169

Post by dragonwriter » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:05 AM UTC

anothernewdude wrote: post #164

internet_user wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>In 2014, Russia achieved a military miracle: they took over Crimea so quickly and without loss of blood, that they delivered a "fait accompli". Oh, how much would China like to replicate that in Taiwan. And that's what they were preparing for. That only seems like a miracle because you need to do more research into what Crimea actually is. Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine, only a paper "gift" to Ukranian SS…

> Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine Such utter nonsense. Who did Russia take it from?

> > Crimea was never actually part of Ukraine

> Such utter nonsense. Who did Russia take it from?

The more full Russian nationalist argument is something like “Crimea was never part of Ukraine until Crimea was arbitrarily joined to the Ukraine SSR by the Soviet government, disregarding both the historical Russianness of Crimea and the historical invalidity of Ukraine as a nation.”

No one actually denies that Ukraine controlled Crimea since Stalin gave it to them until 2014, they just deny the appropriateness of Stalin’s action and therefore all subsequent control of Crimes by Ukraine.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#170

Post by tablespoon » Sun, Mar 06, 2022, 4:11 AM UTC

bingohbangoh wrote: post #114

credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

I legitimately don't understand where all these "Ukraine is obviously winning" takes are coming from. If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weapons to civilians [0], forming penal battalions [1], or lie about receiving NATO planes. [2] If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be inflating death counts to be larger than the US involvement in Afghanistan, a 20 year period of time. [3,4] If Ukraine was doin…

> I legitimately don't understand where all these "Ukraine is obviously winning" takes are coming from.

Because it appears to be doing far better than expected. That doesn't mean they'll win, but it at least allows for a sliver of hope. Personally, I'm guessing they'll eventually lose a lot of territory without direct Western military intervention, but maybe there will still be Ukrainian rump state left in the West after this, which will still be an achievement if not a "win."

> If Ukraine was doing well, it wouldn't be giving out weapons to civilians [0]...

Ukraine might be doing as well as it is, because of things like that. That's not proof that it's doing well or poorly, but rather it's putting all its resources into an existential fight.

> If Ukraine was doing well, they wouldn't need to make up a story about the Ghosts of Kyiv.

You're being waaay too hard on them. They're ten days into the literal fight for their lives, and if some social media rumor gives them a bit more morale amidst the fog of war, who cares?

> Are we just being setup to be told this is a Pyrrhic victory for the Russians?

That's a bit too conspiratorial. That's a likely outcome, because even after "unprecedented" action Ukraine's allies are unwilling to do enough to clearly tip the scales, but I doubt there's some plan to "setup to be told [that]."