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China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

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Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#141

Post by 2-718-281-828 »

credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

> The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy

Or how Mike Tyson puts it: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#143

Post by xwz7611 »

posnet wrote: post #65
temp8964 wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many high officials have strong financial interest against this. In Xi's eyes they are corrupted. But there are too many of them and Xi need some of their support. That's why anti-corruption campaign is crucial to achieve party's (Xi's) political goals.

China's anti-corruption campaigns have nothing to do with corruption and are just populist pretext for removing political enemies.

Not true. Now those that were taken down are too low in their position, so can not be Xi' political enemy. Why do they want to be Xi's enemy?

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#144

Post by _hypx »

daenz wrote: post #136
_hypx wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get the feeling you have that problem in reverse. All defensive gun use is very rare. Certainly, rarer than the opposite (offensive gun use). Combined with suicide risk and accidental deaths or injuries, it is rarely justifiable. Study on this: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2848468/

The CDC reports 60,000 to 2.5M instances of defensive gun use per year[0] 0. https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/firearms/fastfact.htm... .

The numbers regarding defensive gun use is very likely to end up being a classic example of commercial interests affect scientific research. Nearly all of the high numbers come from a handful of sources that have connections with the firearm industry. There are many methodology problems with their numbers too.

In the relatively small amount of research on this subject that is not influenced by commercial interests, the numbers suggest that defensive gun use is very rare: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00917...

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#145

Post by nanidin »

coryrc wrote: post #90
stickfigure wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'll keep posting this list every time this subject comes up: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa... China is 15-25% of the trade for those countries, but the west-aligned countries represent 80% of China's trade. A coordinated trade war would be vastly more devastating for China than the rest of the world. I don't say this gleefully - I hope it never happens.

Every electronic thing made has parts from China. I can't build a car in Germany and export to America without having done trade with China first. Who cares if I could still get Irish butter if I can't get replacement parts for my MRI machine?

When I worked at Garmin, they made all of the aviation electronics in house on production lines in Kansas due to FAA requirements. I don’t know how deep the “must be made in USA” requirements go though.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#146

Post by yongjik »

kerneloftruth wrote: post #86
credit_guy wrote: post #52

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. The attempted invasion of Ukraine by Russia just reminded people that the best war plans don't survive the first contact with the enemy (apparently stated by the Prussian general Moltke), or in the more folksy words of Mike Tyson, everyone has a plan until they get punch…

One thing is sure: if China still wants to invade Taiwan, they certainly have postponed their plans by a few years, maybe a decade, maybe even more. How can you be so certain? This reminds me of people saying just 14 days ago "I don't think Putin is going to invade." Taiwan is not Ukraine, indeed -- Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island. There aren't land borders across which supplies and weapons…

> Taiwan would be easier to capture because it is an island.

That makes no sense. Being an island is good for you if you are the defender. For it to be a plus to China, China will first have to capture it.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#147

Post by krsdcbl »

_hypx wrote: post #106
windpower wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm someone you would describe as "anti 2A". I still think the "defense against home invasion" style argument is mostly nonsense. It's super rare, and I don't think the benefits of guns outweigh the downsides for that kind of self defense. (Having been a victim of exactly such a crime, I'm glad neither I nor the burglar had a gun.) However, seeing Ukrainians take up arms to fight an invasion has caused me to re-evalu…

It's not that hard to arm a society when war breaks out. That is the same mentality that countries like Switzerland has. The "2A argument" is quite a bit different, and has very few similarities with what is going on at the start of a war.

Switzerland is a special case, as everyone who took up military service will be periodically trained until their 40s and keep their arms and equipment at home. In case of mobilization, only ammunition needs to be given out.

That does run counter to the "arming a society is easy" take, as specially in Switzerland it's a pretty safe bet that most households do possess weapons, are even required to by law you could say

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#148

Post by daenz »

_hypx wrote: post #144
daenz wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The CDC reports 60,000 to 2.5M instances of defensive gun use per year[0] 0. https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/firearms/fastfact.htm... .

The numbers regarding defensive gun use is very likely to end up being a classic example of commercial interests affect scientific research. Nearly all of the high numbers come from a handful of sources that have connections with the firearm industry. There are many methodology problems with their numbers too. In the relatively small amount of research on this subject that is not influenced by commercial interests, t…

So the evidence linked on the CDC website is compromised because of commercial interests? Please post evidence of this specific example.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#149

Post by slater »

_hypx wrote: post #106
windpower wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm someone you would describe as "anti 2A". I still think the "defense against home invasion" style argument is mostly nonsense. It's super rare, and I don't think the benefits of guns outweigh the downsides for that kind of self defense. (Having been a victim of exactly such a crime, I'm glad neither I nor the burglar had a gun.) However, seeing Ukrainians take up arms to fight an invasion has caused me to re-evalu…

It's not that hard to arm a society when war breaks out. That is the same mentality that countries like Switzerland has. The "2A argument" is quite a bit different, and has very few similarities with what is going on at the start of a war.

The main issues I have with the (usually US right-wing talking point of) "All Swiss have arms at home!!1~" argument is that, yes, they do, except:

a) They don't have any ammo. So, i dunno.. throw your gun at an intruder...?

b) Ammo in any case is hard to procure

c) If you do your annual military training, the ammo handed out is checked/counted, and woe is you if you can't explain any missing ammo

d) You're seen as a near-sociopath weirdo if you brag about "weapons and ammo i have at home"

Citation: Spent my first 30 years in CH.

Re: China Is Not Russia. Taiwan Is Not Ukraine

#150

Post by throw0101a »

zthrowaway wrote: post #120
_hypx wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Home invasion means forcefully breaking into someone's house where there are people in it. It's very different than a burglary. Burglaries are common, but the former is rare.

And having a firearm to protect your life in that rare situation is still important… The police are the cleanup crew, those first 5-10 minutes you’re on your own.

> And having a firearm to protect your life in that rare situation is still important…

Firearms in the home actually increase your odds of death:

> Access to firearms is associated with risk for completed suicide and being the victim of homicide.

* https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M13-1301?articleid=1...

Specific examples of domestic violence against women:

* https://www.vox.com/2015/10/1/18000522/guns-domestic-violenc...

There's one study that showed that even carrying a gun on your person increases your likely hoot of being shot:

> Results. After adjustment, individuals in possession of a gun were 4.46 (P

* https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2759797/

Generally, the idea that firearms make one safer in the home does not seem to be borne out by the statistical data.

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